COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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So I’ve been out walking the dog this morning and on my way back from Debdale Park I bumped into a guy who we buy our eggs from and who was on his way up to his allotment. He’s a bit of a conspiracy theorist. Actually, after today’s conversation, I think it’s fair to say that he’s a LOT of a conspiracy theorist. Said that all of this is bollocks, it’s man made, is no worse than flu (that old chestnut), most of the deaths aren’t to do with Covid-19 (I conceded that there may be an overlap of sorts but not to the extent he’s claiming), only the Chinese death figures are in any way accurate (!), the Swedes have got it right, our hospitals are all empty, scientists the world over are in on it as they’ve been bought off, it’s all a ploy to suppress the global population by governments everywhere to make money out of us, and it’s the Chinese, Americans, and Russians who are at the forefront of it.

Whenever you get pandemics the conspiracy theorists have a field day.
It's what there good at
 
So I’ve been out walking the dog this morning and on my way back from Debdale Park I bumped into a guy who we buy our eggs from and who was on his way up to his allotment. He’s a bit of a conspiracy theorist. Actually, after today’s conversation, I think it’s fair to say that he’s a LOT of a conspiracy theorist. Said that all of this is bollocks, it’s man made, is no worse than flu (that old chestnut), most of the deaths aren’t to do with Covid-19 (I conceded that there may be an overlap of sorts but not to the extent he’s claiming), only the Chinese death figures are in any way accurate (!), the Swedes have got it right, our hospitals are all empty, scientists the world over are in on it as they’ve been bought off, it’s all a ploy to suppress the global population by governments everywhere to make money out of us, and it’s the Chinese, Americans, and Russians who are at the forefront of it.
If the governments were going to suppress the population, they'd come up with something a bit more lethal. As far as I know the global population is still rising
 
So I’ve been out walking the dog this morning and on my way back from Debdale Park I bumped into a guy who we buy our eggs from and who was on his way up to his allotment. He’s a bit of a conspiracy theorist. Actually, after today’s conversation, I think it’s fair to say that he’s a LOT of a conspiracy theorist. Said that all of this is bollocks, it’s man made, is no worse than flu (that old chestnut), most of the deaths aren’t to do with Covid-19 (I conceded that there may be an overlap of sorts but not to the extent he’s claiming), only the Chinese death figures are in any way accurate (!), the Swedes have got it right, our hospitals are all empty, scientists the world over are in on it as they’ve been bought off, it’s all a ploy to suppress the global population by governments everywhere to make money out of us, and it’s the Chinese, Americans, and Russians who are at the forefront of it.

Should have spat on the ****.
 
So I’ve been out walking the dog this morning and on my way back from Debdale Park I bumped into a guy who we buy our eggs from and who was on his way up to his allotment. He’s a bit of a conspiracy theorist. Actually, after today’s conversation, I think it’s fair to say that he’s a LOT of a conspiracy theorist. Said that all of this is bollocks, it’s man made, is no worse than flu (that old chestnut), most of the deaths aren’t to do with Covid-19 (I conceded that there may be an overlap of sorts but not to the extent he’s claiming), only the Chinese death figures are in any way accurate (!), the Swedes have got it right, our hospitals are all empty, scientists the world over are in on it as they’ve been bought off, it’s all a ploy to suppress the global population by governments everywhere to make money out of us, and it’s the Chinese, Americans, and Russians who are at the forefront of it.
Friend of mine said exactly the same to me the other day, word for word. Fuck knows what these idiots are reading but websites for the chronically gullible and inherently stupid must be doing well for clicks
 
So I’ve been out walking the dog this morning and on my way back from Debdale Park I bumped into a guy who we buy our eggs from and who was on his way up to his allotment. He’s a bit of a conspiracy theorist. Actually, after today’s conversation, I think it’s fair to say that he’s a LOT of a conspiracy theorist. Said that all of this is bollocks, it’s man made, is no worse than flu (that old chestnut), most of the deaths aren’t to do with Covid-19 (I conceded that there may be an overlap of sorts but not to the extent he’s claiming), only the Chinese death figures are in any way accurate (!), the Swedes have got it right, our hospitals are all empty, scientists the world over are in on it as they’ve been bought off, it’s all a ploy to suppress the global population by governments everywhere to make money out of us, and it’s the Chinese, Americans, and Russians who are at the forefront of it.

Tell him he has 20 foot tall chickens in his barn and he feeds beefburgers to swans.
 
It does seem like Spain has peaked and is now declining - fingers crossed.

If that's the case, their peak came 18 days after lockdown. We locked down on March 23rd, so +18 day = 10th April for our peak. That said, I don't think we locked down hard enough (think ridiculous scenes on London underground) so I think our peak will take longer. I was predicting 15th, but have since pulled that back to the 13th. Here's my model again:



This equates to 23,000 deaths, unfortunately. I sincerely hope that is miles out... and it could be. if we really do peak on 10th April, we could be looking at something more like this:



With the result of only 18,000 deaths.

Yeah, but Spain went straight to lockdown. We went to social distancing for a week and a half before lockdown. Indeed, I'm not sure that stringent lockdown is much better than the extreme social distancing being practiced in Sweden. Just a few idiots breaking the rules seems to totally invalidate the whole point of extreme lockdown.
Places that went to social distancing first (California, Oregon to name but two) are starting to see reduced case levels ahead of any expected effect from lockdown.
BTW the bionomial curves I am seeing on scientists screens seem to have a rapid attack phase and a much slower decay phase due to the idiots breaking the rules.
 
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so is anybody bothering watching the queens speech later, I was going to watch it but given the bbc are telling me what she is going to say word for word every hour I won’t bother now.
 
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