COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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west didsblue said:
Are you sure it’s only one?

The more that is found out about this virus, the more ways it seems there are that it can kill you. From what I’ve read around 2/3 of Covid deaths are as a result of pneumonia which leaves a big number killed by other things caused by the virus.

However, to keep it in perspective, based on NY state figures which are probably the most comprehensive available due to the high level of testing, the mortality rate is around 0.75% which, although 7 times worse than flu, is less than the 1-5% originally feared. This would suggest that 30 to 50 million people have been infected worldwide with many asymptotic and hence untested and the majority of the rest recovering well.
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It's highly likely there will be more than one if it is anything like other viruses that can kill people. People's bodies react in different ways when fighting viruses or infections and unfortunately in quite a lot of cases other organs end up being damaged. This is not unique to this particular virus is my point.

0.75 is also the top end of that in NY as not everyone has been tested right? Who knows what the mortality rate actually is but I'd imagine it's quite a lot lower.
 
True_Blue69 said:
It's highly likely there will be more than one if it is anything like other viruses that can kill people. People's bodies react in different ways when fighting viruses or infections and unfortunately in quite a lot of cases other organs end up being damaged. This is not unique to this particular virus is my point.

0.75 is also the top end of that in NY as not everyone has been tested right? Who knows what the mortality rate actually is but I'd imagine it's quite a lot lower.
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They did a study of several thousand random people in New York, not people necessarily with symptoms. That was where the 0.75% came from. That’s why I reckon that figure’s in the right ball park. All other estimates are based on tests that are highly weighted to people complaining of symptoms so would give false high rates.
 
twosips said:


Interesting thread. Suggests, as we probably know, huge underreporting across the world in terms of deaths.
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It also aligns up to what Jennie Harris said in one of the briefings, the best way to compare is by using excess deaths and not just a basic death count.

If you compare us to Italy & Spain we’re already starting off on a higher number so a basic death count comparison is misleading. Italy have been hit the hardest which tallies with the images we were seeing coming out of the hospitals over there.

It looks like we have the highest historical average deaths anyway amongst all them.

Now I’m not claiming we’ve done well but I think it adds perspective on where we are at.
 
Rammy Blue said:
I’ve said from early on in this, weeks ago, that for the explosion of the way this has ripped through care homes that there must be an enormous number of asymptomatic carriers of this virus, and that a relatively high percentage of people have had the virus. Don’t have to be an expert to work some stuff out.
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I've heard reports on the radio over the past few days that people released from hospital (without being tested) into care homes could be a factor contributing to the rapid acceleration of cases. I think the WHO advice is that people can transfer the virus up two weeks after no longer showing symptoms so (if true) that will have added to the vulnerability of care homes. The virus was beginning to spread in care homes a few weeks ago.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
I've heard reports on the radio over the past few days that people released from hospital (without being tested) into care homes could be a factor contributing to the rapid acceleration of cases. I think the WHO advice is that people can transfer the virus up two weeks after no longer showing symptoms so (if true) that will have added to the vulnerability of care homes. The virus was beginning to spread in care homes a few weeks ago.
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It is staggering that they never thought to test patients going to homes from hospital till now
 
BlueAnorak said:
Excellent article. The finding that half of onward transmissions occur before the carrier becomes infectious is what makes this disease lethal. Thank goodness mortality is only a fifth that of SARS.
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There was a German minister on Marr this morning saying for every 20,000 people it would require a team of at least five personnel to carry out contact tracing. That's a huge undertaking to coordinate something to that degree.
 
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Cheadle_hulmeBlue said:
- Boris is BACK in Downing Street: PM is seen returning to work after coronavirus battle…as pressure grows on him to announce his plan to end the lockdown- daily mail headline

the only pressure I’ve seen to end the lockdown is from the media. They are obsessed with it
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Way to go putting pressure on someone who was really unwell just the other week,as you say they are obsessed with ending the lock down,if they thought about they would come up with some thoughtful pieces on it for people to read and learn instead
 
Cheadle_hulmeBlue said:
- Boris is BACK in Downing Street: PM is seen returning to work after coronavirus battle…as pressure grows on him to announce his plan to end the lockdown- daily mail headline

the only pressure I’ve seen to end the lockdown is from the media. They are obsessed with it
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If we do end it early and the death tolls starts climbing they’ll soon change the headline. The government is going to be extremely unpopular whichever course of action it takes. It’s telling that Christian Drosten (German virologist and advisor on Covid to Merkel) is receiving death threats due to the state of the economy when Germany is one of the countries held up as an example everywhere else.
 
Proy said:
I agree with GDM on this one. My assessment of you during this period is one of being very vocal about the point of view you hold. Now there is nothing wrong with an opinion, but there does appear to be an inability to take on board and debate sensibly with anyone who offers an alternative point of view. Just my outlook here, take it or leave it. Not after an argument.
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Gee thanks for your assessment. That means so much.
 
BJL_City said:
Obsessed about ending the lockdown so they can spend months complaining it was lifted too soon, deaths have risen, people are exposed etc. rather than another month of briefings, clapping and zoom concerts.
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Yep - 2nd peak in what 3- 4 weeks? Will be embarrassing when there is no 2nd peak elsewhere.
 
Best day worldwide for weeks. Hopefully, we'll get some rest soon, it's getting better. Will be risky when countries open though. And it was Monday, many countries underreport on Mondays, I expect more cases and deaths today unfortunately.
 
Vic said:
"Personal"? I can't imagine you mean for every 20,000 people in the country - but that's only 3,000, the same as the extra customs officers needed for a hard Brexit...
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I think your math is bit wrong here. 5 on 20 000 is 250 on million x 65 mil. UK has and it's some 16 000.
 
Vic said:
"Personal"? I can't imagine you mean for every 20,000 people in the country - but that's only 3,000, the same as the extra customs officers needed for a hard Brexit...
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Interesting maths you’ve got there.

65m / 20,000 = 3,250 (x5) means 16,250 contact tracers.
 
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