COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Vic said:
It's the one bit of WHO advice I find odd. Pity we didn't follow WHO advice on testing.

National laboratories
Countries should prepare laboratory capacity to manage large-scale testing for COVID-19 — either domestically, or through arrangements with international reference laboratories. If COVID-19 testing capacity does not exist at national level, samples should be sent to a regional or international reference laboratory with appropriate capacity. In the event of widespread community transmission, surge plans should be activated to manage the increased volume of samples from suspected cases. WHO can provide support to access relevant reference laboratories, protocols, reagents, and supplies
(Feb 12th)
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Yep they were really frustrated at our none effort on testing at the time,can't say we weren't warned
 
marco said:
i think the low figures as you say are going to be with us for a long time, a spike here and there depending on things like the beaches and social distancing etc, Dr Campbells video was good news yesterday which indicates the virus will just snuff out eventually
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I just edited my post to add the average number of deaths/day from normal flu is 50/day.

So you have to sort of adjust your base line of what the pre-vaccine target is - it's not 0 deaths per day, it's probably 50-100 with normal life resumed.

So we'll likely never get below 50, because as soon as it starts to drop, they'll relax restrictions a bit, and it'll go up, and then it might decline slowly until we relax things more.
 
robbieh said:
If someone is contagious and they are wearing a mask does this not create more and more infection as they re breathe what they've just exhaled?
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No it just helps prevent them spreading it before they become ill with symptoms. Once they become ill, I hope they would isolate themselves.
 
karen7 said:
Morons and cretins,really? They didn't want people taking them away from the front line and care homes which was right,wearing masks has behaviour consequences
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Then tell the public the truth. The public would have got to grips with it with home made and small business made masks. The result of which would have been less infection and less ill people that needed to be hospitalised
 
karen7 said:
Morons and cretins,really? They didn't want people taking them away from the front line and care homes which was right,wearing masks has behaviour consequences
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So just liars then?

The problem, Karen, is that there seems to be very little correlation between intelligence and common sense. I am sure they are very intelligent people who through deep scientific analysis were of the opinion that there was no benefit in the public wearing masks. But common sense tells you that was an idiotic conclusion.

I even heard one of them talk about the danger of infection when handling your used mask in case it had virus on the surface of it. What the idiot - and I use the word advisedly - failed to think about was that had this theoretical person not been wearing the mask, then the virus would be on their face, up their nose and in their eyes. Not to mention the fact that the primary benefit is to stop infectious people spreading it, not the uninfected catching it.
 
twosips said:
After the peak, it took us 4 days to get out of the 700s, 5 to get out of the 600s, 3 to get out of the 500s, 4 to get out of the 400s, 7 to get out of the 300s, 7 for the 200s, and we've now been stuck in the 100s for 11 days. The fall has clearly plateaued hasn't it. Can't quite get it down to two digits. Wonder if we'll get there at all given the change in restrictions.
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It took 3 weeks for Italy to drop below a hundred and they keep having bad days - they're been above 100 for two days on a row now.
 
domalino said:
The virus spreads exponentially, and it also declines exponentially.

It's going to take ages to drop below 100, much longer to drop below 50, and it's unlikely IMO that we ever get below that.

Not to bring back the stupid old flu comparisons...but PHE says the average flu deaths per year is 17,000 - about 50/day.

You could eradicate all deaths to day temporarily in a severe lock down, but the virus isn't going to go away so if you want some semblance of normal life, it's never going to get below the death rate of flu until/unless we get a vaccine.
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All true, the difference though is that this is more of a killer, and people are much more likely to isolate away if they think have it now when compared to traditional flu cases, so it could unintentionally kill itself off more effectively than the flu virus. It'll kill its host, meaning it won't be able to pass on to other people, plus people will be more inclined to stay at home and not spread it around, and people are going to be *considerably* more hygienic. They already are. Add masks into the equation too, and social distancing then the circumstances are very different looking forward compared to typical flu spread. Time will tell I guess!
 
karen7 said:
Yep they were really frustrated at our none effort on testing at the time,can't say we weren't warned
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We didnt have the capacity and PHE weren't prepared to use university labs for this purpose even though it was offered. What I don't understand is why a Tory government didn't force them to use it.
PHE has proven itself to be not fit for purpose during this crisis and it needs radical restructuring and decentralisation.
 
Chippy_boy said:
So just liars then?

The problem, Karen, is that there seems to be very little correlation between intelligence and common sense. I am sure they are very intelligent people who through deep scientific analysis were of the opinion that there was no benefit in the public wearing masks. But common sense tells you that was an idiotic conclusion.

I even heard one of them talk about the danger of infection when handling your used mask in case it had virus on the surface of it. What the idiot - and I use the word advisedly - failed to think about was that had this theoretical person not been wearing the mask, then the virus would be on their face, up their nose and in their eyes. Not to mention the fact that the primary benefit is to stop infectious people spreading it, not the uninfected catching it.
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Sorry but that is mostly rubbish
 
twosips said:
All true, the difference though is that this is more of a killer, and people are much more likely to isolate away if they think have it now when compared to traditional flu cases, so it could unintentionally kill itself off more effectively than the flu virus. It'll kill its host, meaning it won't be able to pass on to other people, plus people will be more inclined to stay at home and not spread it around, and people are going to be *considerably* more hygienic. They already are. Add masks into the equation too, and social distancing then the circumstances are very different looking forward compared to typical flu spread. Time will tell I guess!
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I don’t how these things work, but could that be the reason there are stories of it mutating to a less deadly virus, 2 reports I’ve seen.. Obviously viruses aren’t conscious but do have a sort of evolution that enables it’s spread, becoming less deadly to it’s host could just be part of it’s natural evolution. As I say though I have no idea what I’m talking about.
 
BlueAnorak said:
No it just helps prevent them spreading it before they become ill with symptoms. Once they become ill, I hope they would isolate themselves.
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I don't know if I expressed my question very well.

If you have the infection but are asymptomatic, and you are wearing a mask. Everytme you breathe out viral particles collect inside the mask. Every time you inhale you get plenty of viral particles re-entering your lungs.

Without the mask you get to inhale air that is clear of viruses.

Surely it's similar to being inside a small room full of viruses.

My question is not anti masks as I fully understand why it stops the spread.
 
robbieh said:
I don't know if I expressed my question very well.

If you have the infection but are asymptomatic, and you are wearing a mask. Everytme you breathe out viral particles collect inside the mask. Every time you inhale you get plenty of viral particles re-entering your lungs.

Without the mask you get to inhale air that is clear of viruses.

Surely it's similar to being inside a small room full of viruses.

My question is not anti masks as I fully understand why it stops the spread.
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Once you have it, you have it.
As I understand it from what I've read and my daughter has told me, the only impact is the initial level of viral load you get to become infected. The more you get the quicker you become ill and the LESS time your bodies imune systrm has to respond to the illness. Hence why health professionals seem to get it badly if they get it.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Once you have it, you have it.
As I understand it from what I've read and my daughter has told me, the only impact is the initial level of viral load you get to become infected. The more you get the quicker you become ill and the LESS time your bodies imune systrm has to respond to the illness. Hence why health professionals seem to get it badly if they get it.
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Thanks for answering.
 
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