UEFA FFP investigation - CAS decision to be announced Monday, 13th July 9.30am BST

[Bill]

That doesn't add up to me as if we agreed a 'slap on the wrist' & Ceferin didn't deliver then we still had the option of going to CAS.

Unfortunately, this is a free hit for UEFA as if we end up with any sanction on us (even suspended) & that is a win for them. If we get exonerated they shrug their shoulders and move on.

and search for another route to halt us.

 

[slbsn]

Good article here on why if we lose at CAS it's probably the end of the road

https://tas-cas.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Bulletin_2020_-_Budapest.pdf… p68 onwards "Case law of the Swiss Federal Tribunal on Challenges against CAS awards (2015-2019)"

"Between 1989 and 2017 decisions on the merits on challenges against CAS awards amount to 126 cases, of which only 10 decisions (7,94%) led to a partial or full setting aside, and 116 consisted of a dismissal39. In the period which I have considered (2016-2019), there were 65 decisions on the merits, out of which only two decisions (i.e. 3 %) consisted in a partial (1) or full (1) setting aside of CAS awards. This shows that the likelihood of success when challenging a CAS award is very low. This is the result of both the quality of CAS awards issued, and also the tendency of the Federal Tribunal to set aside arbitral awards, and in particular CAS awards, only when this is fully justified."

 

[slbsn]

A couple of questions:

1. Let’s say UEFA did offer us a small fine in the first instance as is widely discussed. Let’s also say that City can show that at CAS. Would that not only show that UEFA were not entirely independent of the AC? Also I understand that the argument that a 2 year ban is too much will probably not float so does that mean that the initial small fine offer has no impact at all on the decision....CAS thinking being that City should have taken the offer?

2. With regard to your last paragraph I’ve always thought that too which begs the question how can it be that both sides seem very confident of victory? I know UEFA are divided and may have been pushed into this but they can’t be entirely stupid and must have been advised they have a strong case too. Are one side’s legal advisors crazy? It seems that one side must know the odds are against them; if that side is us I can only imagine that Sheikh Mansour himself has instructed City to fight on a matter of principle which seems unlikely to me. Could both sides feel they have an ace up their sleeve? I feel like something is missing.

I’m still positive given that City would not take this risk without good reason and that they will have a very good idea how the hearing went and seem outwardly very confident of victory.

In all likelihood, any offers by UEFA would have been "without prejudice" meaning CAS wouldn't be told about them.

There are no aces left. All cards have been played.

 

[Centurions]

That doesn't add up to me as if we agreed a 'slap on the wrist' & Ceferin didn't deliver then we still had the option of going to CAS.

Unfortunately, this is a free hit for UEFA as if we end up with any sanction on us (even suspended) & that is a win for them. If we get exonerated they shrug their shoulders and move on.

When we get exonerated (nobody on here has convinced me to change that to 'if' yet) then expect heads to roll at UEFA and there to be some major changes in their structure. I can't see how they can escape that and indeed may be the reason behind all of this.

 

[Ardwick Green Blue]

Good article here on why if we lose at CAS it's probably the end of the road

https://tas-cas.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Bulletin_2020_-_Budapest.pdf… p68 onwards "Case law of the Swiss Federal Tribunal on Challenges against CAS awards (2015-2019)"

"Between 1989 and 2017 decisions on the merits on challenges against CAS awards amount to 126 cases, of which only 10 decisions (7,94%) led to a partial or full setting aside, and 116 consisted of a dismissal39. In the period which I have considered (2016-2019), there were 65 decisions on the merits, out of which only two decisions (i.e. 3 %) consisted in a partial (1) or full (1) setting aside of CAS awards. This shows that the likelihood of success when challenging a CAS award is very low. This is the result of both the quality of CAS awards issued, and also the tendency of the Federal Tribunal to set aside arbitral awards, and in particular CAS awards, only when this is fully justified."

You are certainly doing your bit today to lighten the mood :)

 

[Cobwebcat]

In all likelihood, any offers by UEFA would have been "without prejudice" meaning CAS wouldn't be told about them.

There are no aces left. All cards have been played.

With the latter point I meant before the hearing rather than now. How can both sides’s advisors have been so confident?

 

[KS55]

It’s only speculation that City were ever offered a deal by uefa, which we refused, isn’t it?

No. PB double checked. Omar Barrada confirmed the offer was made.

 

[slbsn]

With the latter point I meant before the hearing rather than now. How can both sides’s advisors have been so confident?

That is litigation - smart people can disagree. This is why it is very risky not to settle a case where the stakes are very high for one side. UEFA's stakes are far lower than City's so they can take a view that even a 50% prospect of success justifies going ahead.

 

[M18CTID]

Very good point. But flies in the face of our irrefutable evidence stance.

I’m just hoping our evidence is as irrefutable as the club claims. If it is, then as you say there was no need to cut any deal with Ceferin. The club have been bullish about their innocence all along - even more bullish than UEFA with regards to their position - but I’m still nervy about the outcome. For all we know, we might be worrying over nothing and this is a slam dunk for City, hence the confidence emanating from the club. We’ll find out soon enough.

 

[HalfwayUpTheKippax]

Reading some of these posts.

Anyone else remember the Dude who stood outside the Kippax every home game with "The End Is Nigh " around his neck,

I'd forgotten about him. And here was I, thinking that KennyG was a miserable bastard!

 

[Cobwebcat]

That is litigation - smart people can disagree. This is why it is very risky not to settle a case where the stakes are very high for one side. UEFA's stakes are far lower than City's so they can take a view that even a 50% prospect of success justifies going ahead.

Not a question as such but I do wonder if politics has overtaken the situation and UEFA do have something to lose hence the rumoured offer. If UEFA are as divided as Soranio says and lose then the side infested with old G14 members can say that UEFA need better governance and take an even stronger hold of the governing body.

I think it’s G14 that have nothing to lose and win both ways. Quite clever if true.

I hope one day that someone challenges what appears, in layman’s terms, to be a cartel.

 

[SilverFox2]

Idd say half an half an a bit of jibberish added in

Presumably only made possible by turning your autocorrect to "off"?
I have feeling it must be difficult to do SM, a bit like Les Dawson hitting the wrong keys when playing the piano badly.

 

[M18CTID]

It’s only speculation that City were ever offered a deal by uefa, which we refused, isn’t it?

Well we’ve heard nothing directly from the club on this, but it sounds plausible because why would Ceferin be at the Shakhtar home game back in November? I doubt he was just road testing the vol-au-vents!

 

[Nicholas van Whatsisface]

I was pretty confident we would get off or a suspended guilty verdict.

I started listening to the price of football pod cast and now I’m bloody nervous

Before going into CAS, UEFA were confident they have a cast iron case against us and it wasn’t based solely on FFP.

Their view was city failed to cooperate with the new investigation and that’s was why the ban was 2 years and city are pinning their hopes on UEFA failed to follow their own procedures by leaking the information before we knew

This actually makes me feel a lot more positive about our chances, if it’s an accurate picture of UEFA’s position.

Firstly - and with a caveat of not yet having listened to the pod - it appears this piece is based entirely on the picture as taken from UEFA’s perspective, presenting their opinions on the robustness of their own arguments rather than any insight into the responding arguments put forward by City. It’s a UEFA perspective on the strength of UEFA’s case - presenting one side of the argument in isolation, nothing more.

But the point that makes me feel positive is their apparent reliance on the non-cooperation angle, away from FFP. If this is a large component of their case, then I think they’ll lose.

CAS have already indicated a concern at UEFA’s persistent leaking of confidential information through this case, which is at the heart of any perceived non-cooperation from City. But even putting that aside, it’s clear we did cooperate given the detailed submission we made to the IC - this would be a very tough argument for UEFA to make stick, as it’s not based on facts, but an interpretation of our behaviour. That’s not a strong basis for the action they’ve taken.

Put simply - if the pod genuinely represents UEFA’s position on this, it’s very good news!

 

[slbsn]

Not a question as such but I do wonder if politics has overtaken the situation and UEFA do have something to lose hence the rumoured offer. If UEFA are as divided as Soranio says and lose then the side infested with old G14 members can say that UEFA need better governance and take an even stronger hold of the governing body.

I think it’s G14 that have nothing to lose and win both ways. Quite clever if true.

I hope one day that someone challenges what appears, in layman’s terms, to be a cartel.

G14, cartel blah blah. IMO (tin hat on), we need to give this stuff up - if we lose the club have screwed up. Let's be clear and honest, we would act exactly the same as the competition if, lets say, we win at CAS (or even if we don't) and in 5 years Newcastle have started to threaten the status quo. It's a competitive sport - people lobby as it leads to relative gains.

 

[blueparrot]

I was pretty confident we would get off or a suspended guilty verdict.

I started listening to the price of football pod cast and now I’m bloody nervous

Before going into CAS, UEFA were confident they have a cast iron case against us and it wasn’t based solely on FFP.

Their view was city failed to cooperate with the new investigation and that’s was why the ban was 2 years and city are pinning their hopes on UEFA failed to follow their own procedures by leaking the information before we knew

Thats your first mistake, load of conspiracy theiory bollocks. IMO obviously.

 

[waspish]

In all likelihood, any offers by UEFA would have been "without prejudice" meaning CAS wouldn't be told about them.

There are no aces left. All cards have been played.

The more I read your posts the more I feel we are done banned for 2 years here we come.

 

[Citizen Green]

G14, cartel blah blah. IMO (tin hat on), we need to give this stuff up - if we lose the club have screwed up. Let's be clear and honest, we would act exactly the same as the competition if, lets say, we win at CAS (or even if we don't) and in 5 years Newcastle have started to threaten the status quo. It's a competitive sport - people lobby as it leads to relative gains.

Agreed, to expect our competitors to sit there in shock at our apparent bad treatment from UEFA is naive in the extreme, they are exactly that, our competitors, of course they want to see us brought down.

 

[norman]

Agree with this. Also if, and it’s still an if imho the deal was offered then City must be supremely confident of their evidence. Otherwise to turn down such a deal would be reckless, and our owners aren’t reckless. But why would UEFA offer us any deal?

 

[Cobwebcat]

G14, cartel blah blah. IMO (tin hat on), we need to give this stuff up - if we lose the club have screwed up. Let's be clear and honest, we would act exactly the same as the competition if, lets say, we win at CAS (or even if we don't) and in 5 years Newcastle have started to threaten the status quo. It's a competitive sport - people lobby as it leads to relative gains.

Unfortunately I think that’s probably true but I stick with Soranio’s strong insinuation that UEFA are divided and who it is that has created the division.