COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Someone I know did a test in July and never received the results. When he rung up to enquire he was told if he didn't hear back in a week it was safe to assume the test was negative as they prioritise the positive ones.

Prioritise the positive ones? That would be a major leap forward, knowing which ones were positive beforehand. Don’t let Handjob or Johnson find out for gods sake......

 

[Marvin]

UAE approves limited use of vaccine in key workers

Gulf News

Also I note reports from China that general vaccination feasible there in November.

Oct/Nov is the key point as this is when the Pfizer and Oxford vaccines are expected to report their Phase 3 trial data and hence China/Russia are probably targeting this date. Everyone wants to be first.

 

[Mon Autre]

Someone I know did a test in July and never received the results. When he rung up to enquire he was told if he didn't hear back in a week it was safe to assume the test was negative as they prioritise the positive ones.

Don't doubt your friend's account for a second but that really does go to show the level of incompetence in the system because that is quite clearly nonsense.

Ironically, I had two tests (whilst asymptomatic) in June whilst staying with my parents when they both had positive results and were pretty sick. It's only since then I've found out false negatives are very common if you test too early.

Five days later (and off the back of five days of caring for two people with covid) my symptoms finally hit and I went for a final test. The results to that final test were lost and I never got my result. There's absolutely no way it wasn't covid given I was living with two people who had it and was extremely ill for a week with all of the textbook symptoms.

 

[somapop]

UAE approves limited use of vaccine in key workers

Gulf News

Also I note reports from China that general vaccination feasible there in November.

Oct/Nov is the key point as this is when the Pfizer and Oxford vaccines are expected to report their Phase 3 trial data and hence China/Russia are probably targeting this date. Everyone wants to be first.

Insanely quick that. I know vaccine development has drastically progressed over the last decade and many have suggested a vaccine could be ready this year, but still...

Maybe the increase in vaccines will actually be the thing we all have to live with in an increasingly globalised world (and perhaps they'll find out so much more about viruses after all this huge world wide race to solve the CV19 conundrum.

Point is I guess...I can't really see people not wanting to travel and visit and does business with far flung lands.
If you get the opportunity in this short life it's there for us to see (and that's coming from someone who really appreciates the beauty the UK offers).
Will life change that much drastically after all or will it be a slow climb up to making everyones life better (through greener energy et al).

Not massively keen on the vaccine nationalism though....may the best win.

Don't doubt your friend's account for a second but that really does go to show the level of incompetence in the system because that is quite clearly nonsense.

Ironically, I had two tests (whilst asymptomatic) in June whilst staying with my parents when they both had positive results and were pretty sick. It's only since then I've found out false negatives are very common if you test too early.

Five days later (and off the back of five days of caring for two people with covid) my symptoms finally hit and I went for a final test. The results to that final test were lost and I never got my result. There's absolutely no way it wasn't covid given I was living with two people who had it and was extremely ill for a week with all of the textbook symptoms.

Shocking that mate. We've so much to learn from all this.

 

[Healdplace]

Situation in so many countries seems to be improving. Is it all purely climate related? Eastern European countries such as Serbia and Croatia now seem to be doing ok, having been amongst the first to raise concern about a second wave. Australia seems well back under control, and obviously major decreases in infection rates in the USA, Mexico and Brazil from where they were a short while ago.

These kinds of viruses are partly related to weather but it is not the main thing as the the US shows where the warmer states only really took off as the Summer arrived and the eastern states like New York/New Jersey having had a near identical path to the UK in the Spring have stayed at the low level we were at up to 2 or 3 weeks ago despite releasing most restrictions. Their death numbers are pretty much still in line with ours too.

I am not an expert but it looks like multiple factors are at work and some have changed enough to make the fatal outcome of the disease much less serious if you can keep the health service in that location able to cope by managing increases in admissions to a low enough level.

Most likely the more vulnerable you are the more worried you remain and the more likely that you will still be cautious. There are some people who will decide that they prefer to live and die if it is their lot regardless of if a vaccine is not here before Spring or it is. So numbers of patients (as we are seeing) will slowly rise. But it will not be a huge problem unless the 77 that became 250 in a couple of weeks passes 1000 in the NW by end of month and keeps climbing. As then, with seasonal rises and with the catch up of non treated other cases from the past six months, we may end up squeezing resources and extra people will die.

Watching care homes is vital too. And managing the tests way better than we are obviously needs urgent attention.

But a combination of circumstances suggests that even pre vaccine (which could be here to protect the most vulnerable by Christmas) death rates will not approach anything like they were in the first wave. But if we see just a seasonal type rise or a true second wave will to a large degree depend on what we do and how protected the really vulnerable are.

So we are in a tipping point over coming weeks where how far and how fast the death rates rise will show us where we are headed. As they will go up. Hopefully just a little.

Also I think that flu this winter might well be very low and that will help. Mostly as all our practices to stop covid are habits that will minimise our flu exposure too.

 

[mexico1970]

Don't doubt your friend's account for a second but that really does go to show the level of incompetence in the system because that is quite clearly nonsense.

Ironically, I had two tests (whilst asymptomatic) in June whilst staying with my parents when they both had positive results and were pretty sick. It's only since then I've found out false negatives are very common if you test too early.

Five days later (and off the back of five days of caring for two people with covid) my symptoms finally hit and I went for a final test. The results to that final test were lost and I never got my result. There's absolutely no way it wasn't covid given I was living with two people who had it and was extremely ill for a week with all of the textbook symptoms.

I hope everything ended up well for you pal, sounds like a nightmare. Reminds me of the puzzled look from my doctor when I was diagnosed with swine flu, he was puzzled because he couldn't figure out where I caught it. He's my wifes doctor too and she had been diagnosed with swine flu a week earlier and he still wouldn't see the link.

Weird thing is that he's a great doctor, since then it has made me suspicious of believing every word that they say as gospel.

 

[Centurions]

...

Also I think that flu this winter might well be very low and that will help. Mostly as all our practices to stop covid are habits that will minimise our flu exposure too.

It certainly won't do any harm but I've got a feeling that this winter is going to be bad for Flu. No basis for it mind.

After my negative test my Doc is convinced it was serious chest infection I've struggled with for over two weeks. He's finally got me on super strong anti-biotics and booked a chest X ray for me. He sounded concerned enough compared to his usually chirpy self that he's got me wondering.

Could really do without the night sweats though, you wake up convinced you're drowning.

 

[kunaguero10]

It certainly won't do any harm but I've got a feeling that this winter is going to be bad for Flu. No basis for it mind.

I wonder if 6+ months of minimal exposure to low level bacterial stressors in the environment for most people will make us extra susceptible to the winter flu this year?

 

[somapop]

I wonder if 6+ months of minimal exposure to low level bacterial stressors in the environment for most people will make us extra susceptible to the winter flu this year?

Not quite sure how it works but I've thought the same (but the immunity build up might be with us for years rather than months). My boy had his first cold a few days after going back to school.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

I wonder if 6+ months of minimal exposure to low level bacterial stressors in the environment for most people will make us extra susceptible to the winter flu this year?

People eligible for the flu jab should get it and then many of the vulnerable people will have that extra level of protection

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland data:

Sadly 1 death.

267 cases at 3.6% - but this includes a part of the backlog from yesterday. Another very high rate but the catch up of the long delay to tests is part of the reason.

Nicola Sturgeon says she had a positive discussion with Nick Hancock about testing backlog and hopes for progress over coming days.

Of the cases 101 were from Greater Glasgow and 59 from Lanarkshire and 53 from Lothian.

 

[Mon Autre]

I hope everything ended up well for you pal, sounds like a nightmare. Reminds me of the puzzled look from my doctor when I was diagnosed with swine flu, he was puzzled because he couldn't figure out where I caught it. He's my wifes doctor too and she had been diagnosed with swine flu a week earlier and he still wouldn't see the link.

Weird thing is that he's a great doctor, since then it has made me suspicious of believing every word that they say as gospel.

It was a pretty terrifying week with both of my parents being in their seventies but thankfully we all seem to have made a full recovery. Psychologically I think it's knocked their confidence a lot but we were very lucky compared to a lot of other families who were struck down like that.

Yeah I had swine flu too when that was doing the rounds. I think that actually floored me more than covid did (although there wasn't much between the two)

 

[kunaguero10]

People eligible for the flu jab should get it and then many of the vulnerable people will have that extra level of protection

Absolutely, booked in for mine weeks ago as asthmatic. Been having it for years though - not sure this message will be getting through to ordinary people though, doesn’t seem to have been pushed that hard?

 

[Mr Partridge]

Prioritise the positive ones? That would be a major leap forward, knowing which ones were positive beforehand. Don’t let Handjob or Johnson find out for gods sake......

I think they meant prioritise contacting the people who have tested positive and the people who are negative get contacted later or in some cases, get forgotten.

Apologies, didnt realise that needed spelling out quite so clearly.

 

[Healdplace]

Nicola Sturgeon also announced a major change to the way hospital data is recorded from today. Some of you may not like it as it will significantly reduce numbers.

It is based around 28 days as maximum for a patient tested as positive to still be regarded as a Covid patient. Akin to the change England made recently.

On the old method there are 262 in hospital today (-2) on yesterday.

However, under the new method - which from now will be the only one cited daily by the data - there are just 48 Covid patients!

Exactly what the other 214 are seems a pertinent question.

The change also impacts icu ventilator patients (though Nicola Sturgeon says to a lesser extent).

So there are 7 on icu ventilators under the old method (same as yesterday) but that is now just 6 as the other one has been in hospital longer than 28 days so is now discounted as a Covid case.

I THINK that was what she was saying.

I imagine some of you will find this shall we say a little 'manipulative'. But she thinks it is more accurate.

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

The dance bit made me laugh.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

Not quite sure how it works but I've thought the same (but the immunity build up might be with us for years rather than months). My boy had his first cold a few days after going back to school.

Same here. Was worried he would be sent home.
Not his first ever, obviously, he’s 18. But first since summer.

 

[twosips]

I wonder if 6+ months of minimal exposure to low level bacterial stressors in the environment for most people will make us extra susceptible to the winter flu this year?

I think we've all likely got a bit of residual immunity from previous years though?

 

[Healdplace]

Week to week Scotland

3 deaths v 1 death today.

159 cases v 267 today.

But 2.3 % of tests last week v 3.6 % today.

Patients 267 (old measure) v 262 today. (48 on new system which as we will not get the old numbers means we can not compare these for the next week until we have 7 days of the new much lower numbers).

Icu ventilator patients are 6 v 6 on the old v new system but was 6 v 7 on the old!

 

[Centurions]

I wonder if 6+ months of minimal exposure to low level bacterial stressors in the environment for most people will make us extra susceptible to the winter flu this year?

That's a very good point, certainly not one I've considered.

I had the Flu two winters running (10-12 year ago) but have always paid for the Asda Flu jab as soon as possible ever since. I've not even had a cold in that period but the last two weeks have been hard.