COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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ayrshire_blue said:
I know most of the experts predicted a second wave, but did they predict when things might start to improve again? Ie are we in for a shitty 8 months or so now until the sun comes back out again?

News is absolutely depressing.
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Nick Hancock said we hope to have a vaccine for the vulnerable before or just after Christmas and the UK has ordered many times the numbers we need from multiple different types of vaccines to hedge our bets that one will be ready and work. But wider vaccination not likely before early Spring.

Once at that point normality of some kind will be able to return and not really before. Barring very unexpected things happening like the virus fizzling out or weakening a lot. Or herd immunity being lower than exprected and happening by default.

But that likely the next 6 months will be difficult.

If we can get through to March with numbers in check I think we will be in a position to see a better Spring/Summer. And with fortune by the autumn of 2021 not be back where we are now.
 
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bluejon said:
We don't know this yet at all, it's a guess, and at this moment in time there is no evidence whatsoever that we are in the start of an out of control eruption of dangerous infection.
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Thing is, we do know it spreads more indoors with poor ventilation vs outdoors. therefore when winter comes, and people move indoors it will spread easier, its a known issue. while there may not be "does winter make it worse" papers yet. it would be naieve to suggest it wont get worse in winter.
 
bluejon said:
As I have said to you before, I am a scientist, I am speaking to many other scientists, and that is our analysis of the current figures. My head is anywhere but the sand. I am reviewing figures every single day and there is no significant resurgence in the dead or seriously ill at this time. I hope it stays that way.
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I really hope you are right too. It would be great news.

But the data from Spain and France is not very encouraging as their death numbers look well up on ours and were not unlike ours a couple of weeks back. We trailed them by those weeks in the Spring. Why not now?

Lets hope we do not follow them and are indeed closer in track to Sweden.

I am expecting somewhere in between. With maybe up to 100 deaths a day.

But that's just me balancing my hopes with expectations.

And I am not a scientist so I certainly defer to your judgement given that.
 
grunge said:
Thing is, we do know it spreads more indoors with poor ventilation vs outdoors. therefore when winter comes, and people move indoors it will spread easier, its a known issue. while there may not be "does winter make it worse" papers yet. it would be naieve to suggest it wont get worse in winter.
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I haven't suggested it won't get worse, it is entirely possible, I'm saying that there is no evidence yet that is happening. Essentially I think there's too much panic over what might happen and not enough clear analysis of what we actually know.
 
Healdplace said:
Nick Hancock said we hope to have a vaccine for the vulnerable before or just after Christmas and the UK has ordered many times the numbers we need from multiple different types of vaccines to hedge our bets that one will be ready and work. But wider vaccination not likely before early Spring.

Once at that point normality of some kind will be able to return and not really before. Barring very ubexpected things happening like the virus fizzling out or weakening a lot. Or herd immunity being lower than exprected and happening by default.

But that likely the next 6 months will be difficult.

If we can get through to March with numbers in check I think we will be in a position to see a better Spring/Summer. And with fortune by the autumn of 2021 not be back where we are now.
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Got to say that broadly my reading of the current state of play. If they can get the most vulnerable vaccinated December/January I think we could be headed back to normal and not the loathsome "new normal" (dont set me off on that ffs) late winter early spring. In the meantime I am afraid we are likely to be served little other than shit on a stick in general.
 
Healdplace said:
I really hope you are right too. It would be great news.

But the data from Spain and France is not very encouraging as their death numbers look well up on ours and were not unlike ours a couple of weeks back. We trailed them by those weeks in the Spring. Why not now?

Lets hope we do not follow them and are indeed closer in track to Sweden.

I am expecting somewhere in between. With maybe up to 100 deaths a day.

But that's just me balancing my hopes with expectations.

And I am not a scientist so I certainly defer to your judgement given that.
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My current reading of the situation is that because the Spanish and French didn't leave their care home system to the wolves, they are now having problems, whereas our country left them to die (sending suspected covid patients back into care homes was criminal). I'm not saying for one saying "I know there won't be a second wave", because I'd be talking out my arse if I did, just saying that the current numbers are not running out of control.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
Keep positive bud.

we are in a much better position than March, we know loads more about the virus than back then - day by day we are also closer to a vaccine.
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Cheers mate. Difficult to see any light at the end of the tunnel at this time unfortunately. It is what it is, and people will be in much worse situations than me I realise that.

Figures were worse at the end of May but I felt more positive then because you could see improvements were coming, we've went full circle though and feels more and more like it's March 23rd again.
 
Healdplace said:
Nick Hancock said we hope to have a vaccine for the vulnerable before or just after Christmas and the UK has ordered many times the numbers we need from multiple different types of vaccines to hedge our bets that one will be ready and work. But wider vaccination not likely before early Spring.

Once at that point normality of some kind will be able to return and not really before. Barring very unexpected things happening like the virus fizzling out or weakening a lot. Or herd immunity being lower than exprected and happening by default.

But that likely the next 6 months will be difficult.

If we can get through to March with numbers in check I think we will be in a position to see a better Spring/Summer. And with fortune by the autumn of 2021 not be back where we are now.
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"hope" being the important word from Hancock.

That's a simply misleading thing for Hancock to say, and open to misquoting/misinterpretation - they may hope, but they cannot do anything to make it happen, and the vulnerable are those who need most security on any vaccine.

I'm a bit confused by the statements made of making all the proto-vaccines. It won't be too bad to disassemble them and re-use the bits, but it's a lot of work. It may be that they're making the core skeletons.
 
Fair enough, bluejon. This is all about analysis and opinions. But why do you think the government scientists are not on board with this and seem more concerned?

I really think people would love to see a counterpoint of optimism. I definitely would. As I know there is room for different readings of this.

The escalating hospital numbers and fairly rapid rise of ventilated patients and the nudging up of deaths looks pretty clear to my non scientst eyes.

Yes the numbers are not out of control - agreed - yet - but is there any good reason to think they will stall or just inch up to modest levels rather than carry on doubling every seven days?

Certainly without taking extra measures now as seems being considered.
 
bluejon said:
My current reading of the situation is that because the Spanish and French didn't leave their care home system to the wolves, they are now having problems, whereas our country left them to die (sending suspected covid patients back into care homes was criminal). I'm not saying for one saying "I know there won't be a second wave", because I'd be talking out my arse if I did, just saying that the current numbers are not running out of control.
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Sorry, I might be misinterpreting this, but if France and Spain didn't leave their care he system to the wolves then, why are they having ever increasingly major problems now? Have they made an arse of it with their care homes now, but not then? Or something else altogether?

I remember when Italy and Spain were so bad at the beginning, a lot of people were putting it down to them being more 'family' people than the likes of the British. They live longer with their parents and even their grandparents, they kiss each other on the cheek as a greeting etc etc. In the end, it hit us just as bad. Isn't this time round likely just to follow the same path?
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Cheers mate. Difficult to see any light at the end of the tunnel at this time unfortunately. It is what it is, and people will be in much worse situations than me I realise that.

Figures were worse at the end of May but I felt more positive then because you could see improvements were coming, we've went full circle though and feels more and more like it's March 23rd again.
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There was some bad reporting and deliberate salesmanship in the early summer, with vaccines this autumn being touted by politicians.

I can understand that this was at least in part to make people see a bright light at the end of the tunnel when things were at the worst, but the downside is the crash when the goodfeeling wears off, and also by the wider recognition that politicians have not been honest, barring maybe Sturgeon.

What is important is that the hidden R&D is months along the line, and is happening as fast as it can be. The boffins will find some solutions, and we are several months closer to that now than we were.
 
Healdplace said:
Fair enough, bluejon. This is all about analysis and opinions. But why do you think the government scientists are not on board with this and seem more concerned?

I really think people would love to see a counterpoint of optimism. I definitely would. As I know there is room for different readings of this.

The escalating hospital numbers and fairly rapid rise of ventilated patients and the nudging up of deaths looks pretty clear to my non scientst eyes.

Yes the numbers are not out of control - agreed - yet - but is there any good reason to think they will stall or just inch up to modest levels rather than carry on doubling every seven days?

Certainly without taking extra measures now as seems being considered.
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From a statistical point of view the numbers of deaths have essentially remained constant for a long time. Any random process, which this definitely is, has inbuilt fluctuations, which is what can be observed. If the numbers start showing a constant increase over time then i will start worrying. I'm not saying this to be offhand at all, I check the numbers every single day, and I'm not concerned at this moment in time. If I see something to worry about, I won't think twice about highlighting it.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Sorry, I might be misinterpreting this, but if France and Spain didn't leave their care he system to the wolves then, why are they having ever increasingly major problems now? Have they made an arse of it with their care homes now, but not then? Or something else altogether?

I remember when Italy and Spain were so bad at the beginning, a lot of people were putting it down to them being more 'family' people than the likes of the British. They live longer with their parents and even their grandparents, they kiss each other on the cheek as a greeting etc etc. In the end, it hit us just as bad. Isn't this time round likely just to follow the same path?
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To be a bit clearer, I believe the lack of protection of the venerable in this country at the beginning means that a greater majority of the 'at risk' people have already died from covid here. They were left to die. I have no idea if this was deliberate or not, but it was disgraceful. Spain and France looked after theirs more.

As for the 'family' thing, I was crapping myself at the beginning of this as we have significant multi-generational households round me, and I was expecting an absolute disaster based on the imperial college model of the disease at the beginning as people were not social distancing etc. It hasn't happened (and I believe that is because the imperial college model is just wrong).
 
Healdplace said:
Fair enough, bluejon. This is all about analysis and opinions. But why do you think the government scientists are not on board with this and seem more concerned?

I really think people would love to see a counterpoint of optimism. I definitely would. As I know there is room for different readings of this.

The escalating hospital numbers and fairly rapid rise of ventilated patients and the nudging up of deaths looks pretty clear to my non scientst eyes.

Yes the numbers are not out of control - agreed - yet - but is there any good reason to think they will stall or just inch up to modest levels rather than carry on doubling every seven days?

Certainly without taking extra measures now as seems being considered.
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My guess would be Keeping It Simple, and to highlight the worst outcome.

It may not get to the worst outcome, but it would be harder to convince people with "might be bad" than what they have said: "prepare for some more restrictions as being better than a possible nuclear option later".
 
Age ranges of Scottish infections announced today

Over 65s - 24
Under 15s - 11
All the rest in between, with the biggest numbers by far in the 25-64 age range (157).
 
ayrshire_blue said:
I know most of the experts predicted a second wave, but did they predict when things might start to improve again? Ie are we in for a shitty 8 months or so now until the sun comes back out again?

News is absolutely depressing.
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We've just had 2 weeks of pretty sunny weather down here in the south(ish) of England, its been lovely, and we have one more day of it, then into Autumn, it might help explain why the spread down here hasn't escalated so quickly.
 
Prof Sikora on BBC news now saying that him and a bunch of epidemiologists have written to the government advising them to sit tight and don't make and rash decisions in implementing and more measures. They are saying that although cases are rising, those getting seriously ill is remaining low. Also spoke about Spain and France to point out that although the numbers of deaths has risen, healthcare is nowhere near bring overrun and the numbers remain relatively low. Specially referred to the current scaremongering in the UK.
 
bluejon said:
I haven't suggested it won't get worse, it is entirely possible, I'm saying that there is no evidence yet that is happening. Essentially I think there's too much panic over what might happen and not enough clear analysis of what we actually know.
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Why do you think the CMO, and CS held an unscheduled press conference this morning to the whole country then ?
 
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