COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Churchlawtonblue said:
Karen, sometimes you come across as quite dictorial on this forum. Its a forum to debate things not for people to just agree with you. An open mind is a good thing.
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Sorry but having it has changed my view, I will never believe any oncologist or anyone not actually in the infectious diseases game ,why would I when I follow the world's best scientists, the same ones that dealt with Ebola and sars ,the ignore option is there ,nobody has to read what anyone posts if they don't like it ,i just want people to behave and not get ill or spread it
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
but weve been told herd immunity is only reached at 60 to 70%. And whats that got to do with population density? Are you saying when 20% is reached covid is less deadly?
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There's wildly different predictions on what kind of levels are needed to reach herd immunity and it's even more difficult to predict with a live virus and especially one where we don't even know for sure how long immunity lasts.

I think the 60-70% prediction also assumes that everybody lives their lives in the same way. In reality, you have some people who are more active e.g. key workers, who are at most risk of catching and therefore spreading it. Those people probably make up a large proportion of people who originally got it and spread it. For the time being they are immune. I think that's probably why the packed out buses and tubes we saw in London didn't necessarily translate to the number of infections we feared it would over summer. In a city where they think 20% of people already had it, a vast number of those people will have been the ones riding peak time public transport at the beginning of the first wave.
 
GM scoreboard:

Bolton 116 - up from 83 to second worst ever. No sign of lockdown making a difference here. 1764 in month. (record). 680 past week (record). 199 over 2 days (was 175) (record). Pop score up 41 to 1385.

Bury 68 - up from 29 - huge rise but one short of record here. 634 in month (record). 318 past week (record). 97 over 2 days (was 80). Pop score up 35 to 1136.

Manchester 96 - down from 113 after run 5 days in the 100s. 1790 in month (record). 791 past week (record). 209 over 2 days (was 269). Pop score up 17 to 1057.

Oldham 62 - up from 49. 924 in month (record). 367 past week (record). 111 over 2 days (was 118). Pop score up 26 to 1558.

Rochdale 70 - massively up from 27 to easily worst score here. Higher than Oldham is not common. And it was up. 724 in month. 309 past week. 97 over 2 days (was 87). Pop score up record 32 to 1297 Will be 1300 club tomorrow after just 5 days in the 1200 one.

Salford 58 - well up from 40. Running really high here too. 837 in month (record) . 375 past week (record). 98 over 2 days (was 92). Pop score up 21 to 990. Will join the 1000 club tomorrow almost unthinkable 6 weeks ago.

Stockport 40 - up from 16 to equal its highest ever. Just 3 days ago. Not going well here as noted. 437 in month (record). 201 past week (record and another unimaginable thing a month ago when it was getting about 35 in a week). Pop score up record equalling 13 to 815.

Tameside 57 - up from 40 to yet another record in this badly hit place (almost certainly dragging Stockport into its mess now). 752 in month. 284 past week (record). 97 over 2 days (was 89). Pop score up record 25 to 1151.

Trafford 18 - down from 21, third successive drop and lowest in GM today by the biggest margin anyone has been in the restrictions. Andy Burnham needs to find out what Trafford is doing right that nobody else is. Urgently. Only 4 totas over 18 in past two weeks and none over a single 30. 410 in month - lreaving Stockport trailing in its wake here just days after taking this title. 152 past week (well up on its normal but miles ahead of the rest in GM here too). Pop score up 8 to 851 so made good ground on catching Stockport here too.

Wigan 61 - up from 54 to another record. Unimaginable it is here from where it was and even Stockport's fall looks good in comparison with here. But Andy Burnham should be worried that the two places exempted from restrictions have gone nuclear when out of them and the one who pleaded not to be has done the opposite. Imo Wigan and Stockport have to be back in restrictions this week even though becuse of their pop scores and relative tolerable numbers neither will be in the red watch national list. But they are getting there. 612 in month (utterly unthinkable number two or three weeks back). 337 past week (record) - more than 50% of month in one week says it all. 115 over 2 days (was 113). Pop score up record 19 to 883. Could even be in the 900 club tomorrow.
 
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BLUEMATT23 said:
Its abundantly clear the government has lost all control on this now and are blaming people for its failings.
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I have mentioned several times on BM the sinister way in which the government has a knack of blaming the public. It is absolutely mental that they introduced eat out to help out (which we will be for paying for in tax) encouraging us all to eat out and they're now blaming the public for eating and drinking out oh as well as returning to offices. Communication has been a complete shambles.

The minority of people are sadly taking the piss but I hope new measures aren't too impactful for businesses.
 
Northernstorirs said:
I have mentioned several times on BM the sinister way in which the government has a knack of blaming the public. It is absolutely mental that they introduced eat out to help out (which we will be for paying for in tax) encouraging us all to eat out and they're now blaming the public for eating and drinking out oh as well as returning to offices. Communication has been a complete shambles.

The minority of people are sadly taking the piss but I hope new measures aren't too impactful for businesses.
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Yes agreed and them 2 doom merchant scientists they keep wheeling out want pensioning off.
 
Northernstorirs said:
I have mentioned several times on BM the sinister way in which the government has a knack of blaming the public. It is absolutely mental that they introduced eat out to help out (which we will be for paying for in tax) encouraging us all to eat out and they're now blaming the public for eating and drinking out oh as well as returning to offices. Communication has been a complete shambles.

The minority of people are sadly taking the piss but I hope new measures aren't too impactful for businesses.
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The second they changed to "control the virus" motto they moved the blame from them to us.
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
Yes agreed and them 2 doom merchant scientists they keep wheeling out want pensioning off.
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its the best way to Conttol the virus, by getting people to take it seriously again. that to me was clearly what they did there.

but they are statistically speaking correct. if nothing changes to slow the spread, the virus is doubling every 7/8 days. meaning in 4 weeks we will be at about 50k cases.

telling people that will hopefully make people take it a bit more seriously again.

the fact they said then extent 200+ deaths a day does show how much its controlled now though
 
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