COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[kaz7]

Something you don't hear much about though, and I’ve never quite worked out why, but there were 12,887 COVID-19 patients discharged from English hospitals during the month of October and 3,151 were discharged during the first 4 days of November.

Probably beause they are only concerned with how many they have using the beds now

 

[Healdplace]

On the Liverpool question their cases WERE up a lot today but like most places just back to a week or two ago not through the roof.

I am now all but certain we have had another major cock up with the testing over past days with the very low testing numbers over recent days shooting up today as they have and the reason why has just been covered up.

I do not like conspiracies but I do not buy that these cases have suddenly risen by 50% in 24 hours after weeks of apparent stability.

And there was no mention of why the missing 100,000 tests were not being done a few days ago but were being done
today. Why did no reporter even notice that and ask? It obviously has skewed the data over recent days Its not irrelevant. But it was not even mentioned.

Boris should have been out there fronting it not running off to squabble with his staff.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

As you might expect today's utterly shocking rise in cases is terrible news for the NW.

Half hoping they have just found another load dumped behind the sofa and this is not a real huge rise after being stable for so long in the low 20Ks\

Though NW is not alone. Those Pop Scores all going down lately are likely to be rocketing up again.

Those numbers can’t be right, surely? On their daily update it says cases are growing by 2-4% per day but this is 50% in one day, which is just nonsense. Particularly when the Zoe app (which has been ahead of this most of the time) is suggesting the R number is 0.9!

 

[BlueAnorak]

The BBC Health correspondent just stated that the Liverpool moonshot test figures are not yet included in any of the official testing pillar results.

 

[Healdplace]

Those numbers can’t be right, surely? On their daily update it says cases are growing by 2-4% per day but this is 50% in one day, which is just nonsense. Particularly when the Zoe app (which has been ahead of this most of the time) is suggesting the R number is 0.9!

As I just posted the testing numbers that I have flagged up over recent days as being very strange went WAY down and today have shot WAY up. Not by trivial numbers. But gigantic ones that must have skewed the data.

There were 130,000 fewer pillar 1 & 2 tests 2 days ago v today.

It coincided with the web site issues in struggling to get case data never fully explained.

These are not irrelevant to this sudden jump that I do not buy as a quirk of the data (as it was seemingly brushed off as).

But why is no journalist asking them these questions? Do they not even look at how many tests are being done each day?

This is an England problem. The other three nations cases are acting normally. That alone is suspicious.

 

[kaz7]

Final questions come from Bloomberg's Emily Ashton, who asks Prof Powis if he thinks lockdown should end on 2 December

Prof Powis says it is a matter for elected representatives, but admits there will need to be more measures to reduce transmission.

"Exactly what they are, it is too early to tell," he says, adding the data over the next few weeks needs to be assessed.

 

[abu13]

The BBC Health correspondent just stated that the Liverpool moonshot test figures are not yet included in any of the official testing pillar results.

I assume that any positive result picked up by the tests would be reported in the figures though.

 

[kaz7]

This question is from the Daily Express: Has there been discussion in the government about a compulsory vaccination programme as was seen with smallpox?

The business secretary says we have to wait until we have a vaccine that is "safe and available".

Mr Sharma says the independent Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation will make a decision on who gets it first - but that he doesn't want to "jump ahead".

Professor Powis says "we are good at vaccination in this country and we have some of the highest vaccination programmes in the world".

He believes the British people will "want to be vaccinated".

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I know Michael Yeadon splits opinion as he is anti lockdown but he enjoys a crack at Hancock

View attachment 5283

Whether or not he has a point, that's not the letter of a concerned healthcare professional, it reads as though it's from a barely literate student agitator.

As to who he should be making a point to, the health regulator MHRA makes the call on safety, not Hancock, so he's writing to the wrong person.

On the long term safety of the vaccine, it's self evident that cannot be proven with short term studies. But that doesn't mean there's no understanding, and there seems to be very little reason to believe this class of therapeutics has long term consequences.

 

[somapop]

Whether or not he has a point, that's not the letter of a concerned healthcare professional, it reads as though it's from a barely literate student agitator.

As to who he should be making a point to, the health regulator MHRA makes the call on safety, not Hancock, so he's writing to the wrong person.

On the long term safety of the vaccine, it's self evident that cannot be proven with short term studies. But that doesn't mean there's no understanding, and there seems to be very little reason to believe this class of therapeutics has long term consequences.

As mentioned above, this (almost verbatim) is what's being spoken by the thinly veiled, 'I'm not an anti-vaxxer but...' crowd. However, given his credentials who am I to say he's 'technically' off the mark? I'm not sure what his own answer to all this is. He'd have a better argument if the mortality rates were not so high.
You've described the response very well.

 

[Healdplace]

Liverpool today had 281 cases - up from 201 - and the highest in 2/3 weeks.

Wirral up similarly and highest since then too. As did Knowsley.

So it is a general rise across the board as I will post later from around the UK,

 

[Healdplace]

GM though had a bad day and was up to a score around the same time back as those Merseyside numbers 2 or 3 weeks ago. Suggesting the problem has been over the past 2 weeks and the low numbers might have been more apparent than real.

GM up 776 in one day from 1811 to 2587. One of its highest ever numbers.

It goes back over 50% of the NW total too - though only to 51% - so the numbers up are spread evenly around England as far as I can tell.

Which itself suggests we have just missed a gradual climb and it has emerged as a sudden jump for testing related reasons I suspect.

Obviously someone needs to find out how and why.

 

[Cheadle_hulmeBlue]

Today’s figures are horrendous. It’s looking like it will end up being worse then the first wave

 

[johnnytapia]

One in five people who survive COVID-19 will be diagnosed with a psychiatric disorder within 90 days, according to a study examining the pandemic.

The most common conditions that recovered patients are diagnosed with include anxiety, depression and insomnia, although the researchers also found significantly higher risks of dementia.

It comes as the number of people who have died with coronavirus in the UK passes the 50,000 mark, according to government figures, highlighting the devastating impact of the virus on the country.

Read more here.

What an absolute crock of pure shit. There is ZERO chance that of the 1.3m or so positives thus far that 260k will be diagnosed with such disorders. ZERO.

 

[Healdplace]

Will post the GM scoreboard later

But highlights. Every single borough up - mostly well up.

Manchester and Wigan the most, Bolton the least.

Only two boroughs sub 200 and neither of them by much.

Three boroughs over 300.

4 boroughs with pop score rises of over 100 in the day.

Not remotely like the data of the past few days.

So either in the last 24 hours the virus has run rampant or in the last week or so the numbers we were being offered via testing were suppressed and artificially low.

I know which is most likely.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Today’s figures are horrendous. It’s looking like it will end up being worse then the first wave

first wave wasn’t anywhere near the testing being done now. So new cases compared to first wave is a bit skewed.
but still. Not looking great.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Will post the GM scoreboard later

But highlights. Every single borough up - mostly well up.

Manchester and Wigan the most, Bolton the least.

Only two boroughs sub 200 and neither of them by much.

Three boroughs over 300.

4 boroughs with pop sore rises of over 100 in the day.

And this a week into lockdown? It’s all looking very wrong and I’ll be interested to see tomorrow’s figures. I thought it was interesting that Powis said people shouldn’t read too much into a single days figure as well. Whitty would have said it meant the moon was about to fall from the sky :-)

 

[Cheadle_hulmeBlue]

Redirect Notice

www.google.co.uk

Find it bizarre that we can allow 7,000 students to come to the uk.... but most of us are banned from travelling. the universities in Manchester only seem to care about money.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Will post the GM scoreboard later

But highlights. Every single borough up - mostly well up.

Manchester and Wigan the most, Bolton the least.

Only two boroughs sub 200 and neither of them by much.

Three boroughs over 300.

4 boroughs with pop sore rises of over 100 in the day.

Not remotely like the data of the past few days.

So either in the last 24 hours the virus has run rampant or in the last week or so the numbers we were being offered via testing were suppressed and artificially low.

I know which is most likely.

The Zoe app numbers maybe give some degree of independent test of the figures.

They're showing a very gradual decline nationally. Faster in the NW.

Suggests some kind of glitch in today's figures, maybe a bundle found down the back of the sofa.

 

[Summerbuzz]

I know Michael Yeadon splits opinion as he is anti lockdown but he enjoys a crack at Hancock

That's just anti-vax parcelled up as a letter to Hancock.

The point is, don't trust one scientist. A scientist is one human. Any one human can lose the plot. I knew an incredibly bright and well educated woman with 2 phd's in biochemsitry and something else, she worked in an Oxbridge lab, worked on a really succesful pharma product.

She ended up believing in homeopathy, of all things, and as far as I could tell, it all goes back to a family tragedy. Our attachments to the people we love (and to ourselves) can screw with anyone's mind, leave them barking up the wrong tree, or losing the plot completely. There are many other reasons someone very healthy can develop an obsesssive stance, or unbalanced view. In fact, it's more or less the default reality for a human. A persons view is that way because they have to meet their personal needs.

Science is a communal activity. One person doesn't count for anything unless he can clearly demonstrate every step of his work so that the rest of the community can replicate it. That's why the advice for outsiders is always to look for the consensus view. Consensus views within scientific communities are not always perfect. It's part of the process that they attack and revise their own and each other's ideas. And as the evidence mounts up over time, so can the consensus. Following that official, public statements that communicate the consensus, will not always give you the right answer now and forever. But it's always, by far, the best chance any of us have of getting our hands on the best answer and explanation.