COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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cleavers said:
What am I missing in that graph ?

The commentary says "shows rates of new disease falling slowly below 36k", yet the numbers along the side are 20k, 40k, 60k, 80k, 100k , and the lines are for each region, and suggest the NW had over 100k cases at the beginning of November, and is still ~87k alone.
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Good spot- I just looked at the trend, not the figures.

The axis says "total active cases" presumably all people with current symptoms. There'll be more people with symptoms than new cases per day, but I don't know how where the 36k comes from. Presumably people reporting symptoms for the first time?

I don't know where to find the raw data.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
The timeline would be about right if lots of people went out and forgot the rules on the last night before lockdown. We’ve also had bonfire night.

As the experts have said, there’s little point going off one day’s figures and there’s not a huge gap in the estimates of the R number for the Governments 1.1-1.3 to the unofficial 0.9. The reality is that R number has to come down well below 1 if electric care is going to be maintained alongside care for Covid patients.
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Giving electric care seems a tad extreme........
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Good spot- I just looked at the trend, not the figures.

The axis says "total active cases" presumably all people with current symptoms. There'll be more people with symptoms than new cases per day, but I don't know how where the 36k comes from. Presumably people reporting symptoms for the first time?

I don't know where to find the raw data.
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Yes, I think it's new daily cases it's referring to, it wasn't immediately clear though.
 
Weekly Pop scores in GM: (lowest is best anything over 500 usually on watch)

7 days ago v today = rise or fall


Oldham 787 v 665 today = fall of 122

Rochdale 595 v 560 today = fall of 35

Bury 606 v 526 today = fall of 80

Wigan 663 v 504 today = fall of 159

Salford 622 v 487 today = fall of 135

Bolton 558 v 460 today = fall of 98

Tameside 541 v 402 today = fall of 139

Manchester 468 v 397 today = fall of 71

Trafford 409 v 389 today = fall of 20

Stockport 424 v 341 today = fall of 83


As these numbers suggest all of GM is falling and it has been a good week that has seen many of those at the top of the listings either exit that list of government most watched or reduce their rank in the top 10 worst in UK.

Another way to see the progress - recalling the lower the Pop the better - is 7 day ago GM had 3 in the 400s. 3 in the 500s. 3 in the 600s and 1 in the 700s.

A week on and it has none in the 700s. Just 1 in the 600s. 3 in the 500s. 3 in the 400s and 3 in the 300s.

Very visible declining cases across the county.
 
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Other numbers around the UK today.

Birmingham had 791 cases today. The most. But as it is so large its Pop Score only rose by 69. Exactly the same as Stockport - lowest in GM today. So you can exactly equivocate 791 cases in Birmingham with 201 in Stockport. Which without knowing the Pop Scores you would never realise.

The overall pop scores - Birmingham 2601 v Stockport 3098 - tell you Birmingham has fared a little better of the two across the pandemic to date. And why we have never seen much talk of Britain's second biggest city needing special measures. Though its sheer size has and will put pressure on its health service.

Bradford at 514 was second and its highest number in the months I have been following it. It took its Pop score up 95 to 4499 - a lower rise than several GM boroughs despite more cases than anyone in GM. Again population related.

Nottingham was a big contributor to the record case numbers in the midlands today. Up from 68 to 206 in the day taking its pop score over 4000.

Leicester had an even worse day with 335 cases - another new high here. It was getting about 20% of those numbers in July when it was the only place in the UK in special measures trying to curb its wat were then considered high numbers - even though a fraction of what it is getting now. Shows cases are relative to testing levels that produce them.

Blackburn has the highest Pop Score in Britain and like Oldham had a huge rise today. At 190 cases that does not sound a lot but it is context of size and took it to 5511 pop score - over 200 ahead of the only other one in the 5000 club - Oldham.

Though Rochdale looks set to join them both in the next week or so.
 
abu13 said:
I assume that any positive result picked up by the tests would be reported in the figures though.
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No. They havn't been reported yet. That's what I thought the Presser would be about.
The only ones reported are those who booked normal tests due to symptoms
 
Finally as Kaz did not post any further hospital data here is the news on that.

Data over 3 days 10 / 11 / 12 November

England patients: 11, 306 / 11, 990 / 12, 199. Was 10, 344 on 5 Nov - so rise of 1855 in week. Rise was 1663 week before. And 2607 week before.

Ventilators: 1010 / 1081 / 1088. Was 984 on 5 Nov. - so rise of 104 in week. Rise was 181 week before. And 239 the week before.

North West patients : The good(ish) news continues here.

Patients 2781 / 2984 / 2937 - so it has fallen again but is still just back above the 2890 first wave peak, There were 2714 in a week ago so a rise of 176 in the week. Rise was 139 week before.619 week before.

Ventilators 229 / 261 / 267, Was 233 on 5 Nov. Rise of 34. Week before rise of 20. Week before rise of 35.

The goodish news is that other areas are overtaking the NW.

NE/Yorks have seen patients rise 2882/ 3078 / 3158 in the same days to now be well ahead of the NW as the region with the most patients and over a week beyond passing their wave one maximum.

They have seen a rise of 416 patients in the week v the NWs 176.

Midlands patients rose in the three days just as relentlessly from 2364/ 2568/ 2698. A rise of 563 in the week three times as many as the NW.

So as the numbers are starting to show NW is losing its status as the worst impacted and these other two regions are starting to take over on the hospital data.

The death numbers will surely follow with a reduction in the NW we are starting to see. And these two areas fast catching up.

We will have to see but there is reason to hope we might have turned the corner and the first in / first out principle that helped London last time around might be how wave 2 works as well in the NW.

This second wave still has some way to go unfortunately but possibly a little less far up here.
 
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Healdplace said:
ITV news just trying to suggest this is not as bad as it looks and a blip tied to half term. If I understood correctly.

Still want to know why the testing was all over the shop in numbers over the past few days.
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depressing any way they try and spin it. the numbers had been relatively stable for three or so weeks. now a sudden 40% rise.
 
i'm not knowledgeable about seroprevalence and antibodies; could someone please explain why the antibody level is not rising with the massive increase in positive tests? (or maybe it is?) (might be something to do with T-cells?)

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shemnel said:
i'm not knowledgeable about seroprevalence and antibodies; could someone please explain why the antibody level is not rising with the massive increase in positive tests? (or maybe it is?)

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At first glance I'd because that graph highlights % prevalence rather than absolute figures? 1 in 5 is the same as 100,000 in 500,000.
If the massive increase in positive tests correlates with a massive increase in overall tests, then it makes sense.
Havent considered anything further than that though.
 
shemnel said:
i'm not knowledgeable about seroprevalence and antibodies; could someone please explain why the antibody level is not rising with the massive increase in positive tests? (or maybe it is?)

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Good question, if we have over a million confirmed positive tests what’s the real figure of what is out there in the population who have had covid and have developed antibodies? Would it be around the 10 million mark?
 
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