COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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03 March 2002 said:
View attachment 5507

I think this figure does a decent job of demonstrating how it works. Essentially mRNA vaccines are much 'cleaner' in that they introduce only the blueprint of the important spike protein to our cells. In this example, the 'antigen' is what our immune response recognises and is the spike protein.

It's important to understand that actually a virus is a bit like a tick in that they need to form symbiotic relationships to thrive. In the same way flowers rely on certain events to spread their seeds to reproduce, a virus needs to hijack our cells to use our protein production to make its own proteins.

What a vaccine is, is basically the equivalent of having loads of police (immune response incl. antibodies) stationed around town and every shop now has a wanted poster up. As soon as the virus is spotted it's swarmed upon. Hard to do that if you don't know what the criminal looks like beforehand.
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The cops analogy is always a good one (like the T cells...not necessarily on the streets in their cars, but sat inside primed to jump on their cop lambo's (these are Dubai cops) it the 'perps' enter town.

The 95% mRNA results compared to (guessed) 80% of the AZ ones mean nothing to me so absolutely no point commenting.
Prof Sharrock did say Summer before the AZ ones is rolled out however.

Looks like combination of many doesn't it? The potential of mRNA (cleaner as you say) is potentially exciting.

Cheers.
 
I suspect the mRNA vaccines will be used with older folk and the standard vaccines for everyone else.
Just my thoughts weighing up the risks and issues.
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
As an outsider, 170 out of 43,000 is quite a small proportion. I mean it'a not even 1% of the test pool so what are the assurances that it is representative?

I'm basing the above on the recent posts I've read with the headline news.
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Not sure what you mean by "representative". 170 is the proportion that have reported symptoms.

A ratio of 8:162 is certainly way above statistical significance - the chances of flipping a coin 170 times and getting only 8 heads is absolutely tiny. The usual way of reporting is a 95% confidence interval, the range which you can be 95% sure the efficacy lies within. Likely 90-98% or something like that (he says, inventing stats off the top of his head...).

There will be an analysis of different cohorts within that - Pfizer have said there is no change in efficacy for over 65s, so they must have a fair number in that age bracket to be able to report that. Likewise, they'll be reporting by gender, ethnicity etc, but you can expect the confidence intervals for subgroups to be wider, as the numbers will be smaller. For instance, they report 10 severe cases, only one of which was on the active arm. That's 90% efficiacy against severe disease, but the confidence interval would be much wider as there are so many fewer cases.

Pfizer press release is all we have on the dataset right now, I think

Pfizer and BioNTech Conclude Phase 3 Study of COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate, Meeting All Primary Efficacy Endpoints | Pfizer

Primary efficacy analysis demonstrates BNT162b2 to be 95% effective against COVID-19 beginning 28 days after the first dose; 170 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were evaluated, with 162 observed in the placebo group versus 8 in the vaccine group Efficacy was consistent across age, gender, race and...
www.pfizer.com www.pfizer.com

Short version: It's representative enough to crack on!
 
BlueHammer85 said:
why the ‘wow’ ? It’s pretty obvious with the amount testing positive a few weeks ago that we would be at this number, it’s tragic yes but not shocking at all.
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If you are not shocked that we are getting these numbers again then i dont know what to say , they are someones loved ones , people are numb to that fact

As some people are not capable of puting off dec 25th expect some shocking numbers in january , it is one fucking day
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Not sure what you mean by "representative". 170 is the proportion that have reported symptoms.

A ratio of 8:162 is certainly way above statistical significance - the chances of flipping a coin 170 times and getting only 8 heads is absolutely tiny. The usual way of reporting is a 95% confidence interval, the range which you can be 95% sure the efficacy lies within. Likely 90-98% or something like that (he says, inventing stats off the top of his head...).

There will be an analysis of different cohorts within that - Pfizer have said there is no change in efficacy for over 65s, so they must have a fair number in that age bracket to be able to report that. Likewise, they'll be reporting by gender, ethnicity etc, but you can expect the confidence intervals for subgroups to be wider, as the numbers will be smaller. For instance, they report 10 severe cases, only one of which was on the active arm. That's 90% efficiacy against severe disease, but the confidence interval would be much wider as there are so many fewer cases.

Pfizer press release is all we have on the dataset right now, I think

Pfizer and BioNTech Conclude Phase 3 Study of COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate, Meeting All Primary Efficacy Endpoints | Pfizer

Primary efficacy analysis demonstrates BNT162b2 to be 95% effective against COVID-19 beginning 28 days after the first dose; 170 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were evaluated, with 162 observed in the placebo group versus 8 in the vaccine group Efficacy was consistent across age, gender, race and...
www.pfizer.com www.pfizer.com

Short version: It's representative enough to crack on!
Click to expand...
Pete101 has a coin he'd like you to see:
1605702842544.png
 
artfuldodger said:
Feeling much more positive now Dolly is on the case.......
www.bbc.co.uk

Dolly Parton 'honoured and proud' to help Covid-19 battle

Parton's $1m donation helped fund a vaccine's trials and research into other coronavirus treatments.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
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For fuck’s sake, the conspiracy theorists will be accusing Dolly of colluding with Bill Gates next. I might have to wind some of the lunatics up, and tell them that I’d heard if they take the vaccine that Dolly has helped fund then they’ll grow a mahoosive pair of bazookas. The stupid twats will probably believe me
 
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