COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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I should add that I know case numbers are not the only factor that determines tier decisions. But NW hospital numbers have plummeted over those 2 weeks too. As have ventilated patients and deaths are starting to fall too.

Past 7 days patients down to lowest numbers in over a month on both measures -

Patients in NW 2 wks v last wk last night 2919 to 2694 to 2290 last night.

Ventilated patients in NW 2 wks v last wk v last night 266 to 228 to 191 last night.

As you see decisions taken on two week old data are meaningless without seeing how things have changed.

Two weeks ago the NW had the most people in hospital of any region, had surpassed the numbers it had in hospital in the first wave, was rising daily, had the most patients on ventilators of any region and the most people dying.

Two weeks later NONE of those things are true.
 
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Healdplace said:
I think he might have just misunderstood my post last night referring to Trafford rejecting the offer last time round and why it benefited Trafford to say no and Stockport who said yes quickly ended up back in and got overtaken by Trafford as top borough in GM. I may well not have clarified that.

Though if you look at the GM Pop scores as of yesterday below half of them are now under the 200 cases per 100,000 limit usually applied to define tier 2 or 3. And the rest not far above it.

See below - with the current numbers v the ones used by the government to declare GM in tier 3. I show the ones from about 14 days ago to remove the impact of the student reallocation that increased numbers in GM artificially for a few days. No idea if the government took that into account. But a fairer comparison removes that impact. But they always used finalised case data nearly a week old so its a fair comparison.

Last Night:

TRAFFORD 122, STOCKPORT 150, TAMESIDE 158, SALFORD 164, MANCHESTER 194, BURY 223, WIGAN 224, BOLTON 225, OLDHAM 256, ROCHDALE 287

14 days ago:

STOCKPORT 347, TRAFFORD 372, MANCHESTER 403, TAMESIDE 421, BOLTON 470, WIGAN 470, SALFORD 479,
BURY 512, ROCHDALE 516, OLDHAM 619

As you can see there was a HUGE change between the data when they based the decisions and right now.

So just taking Trafford out now would be unreasonable and lead to anger elsewhere.

More importantly, Trafford and GM is where they are now because the recent lockdown has got it there. Opening up one or more areas in GM would reverse that and by Christmas when most restrictions go for five days it could result in a third wave that will lock down GM for the rest of the Winter.

I think coming out of tier 3 would be a serious mistake for any borough.

But I understand the temptation as it might be the difference between survival of a livelihood or not.

What it must NOT be is a politically motivated decision.
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The problem is that most people see plummeting cases and think we should be in tier 2. What will happen is that cases will stay low for a couple of weeks then rise again which will ensure we go back into tier 3. It will go in cycles every time we go in and out of a lockdown. Feel really sorry for the hospitality sector as it will decimate the numbers in that sector and their supply chains. That said the people themselves have to take responsibility for their actions and as we have seen over the past eight months many people cannot be trusted to follow the rules hence th mess we are currently in. Saw a guy in a shop yesterday with his mask under his chin yet no shop staff or security pulled him up and let him wonder around and buy what he wanted. Absolutely staggered with the bloke's selfishness. Still thousands of people either don't understand what a pandemic is and how a virus works, don't care or both. Students still have huge parties, Corbyn's brother still protesting etc. These people should be last on the list when the vaccine is available.
 
I think what the government should do (but won't) is give a boosted sum over the Christmas period IF they stay in tier 3 and do not ask to leave it. Until the review in mid January when an extra month and the Christmas break cam be evaluated as to how it impacts numbers.
 
Nicola Sturgeon reports that yet again a 'technical issue' has messed up testing so todays numbers are artificially low and they will be higher than normal for next few days.

This inability of the UK to get testing sorted after months in a pandemic is going to have repercussions in due course if they do not find a way to get a grip after so many problems.

It is one of the most critical factors yet is in a mess far too often.
 
Eds said:
The problem is that most people see plummeting cases and think we should be in tier 2. What will happen is that cases will stay low for a couple of weeks then rise again which will ensure we go back into tier 3. It will go in cycles every time we go in and out of a lockdown. Feel really sorry for the hospitality sector as it will decimate the numbers in that sector and their supply chains. That said the people themselves have to take responsibility for their actions and as we have seen over the past eight months many people cannot be trusted to follow the rules hence th mess we are currently in. Saw a guy in a shop yesterday with his mask under his chin yet no shop staff or security pulled him up and let him wonder around and buy what he wanted. Absolutely staggered with the bloke's selfishness. Still thousands of people either don't understand what a pandemic is and how a virus works, don't care or both. Students still have huge parties, Corbyn's brother still protesting etc. These people should be last on the list when the vaccine is available.
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Maybe they have had it?

I am just waiting now for the MHRA to approve the vaccine(s) and we can start to finish this.
 
Healdplace said:
Nicola Sturgeon reports that yet again a 'technical issue' has messed up testing so todays numbers are artificially low and they will be higher than normal for next few days.

This inability of the UK to get testing sorted after months in a pandemic is going to have repercussions in due course if they do not find a way to get a grip after so many problems.

It is one of the most critical factors yet is in a mess far too often.
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Totally agree. A sure way to cause confusion amongst most of the public who will only read the headline numbers. Makes comparison and trend reading extremely difficult, and that's what important decisions are based upon.
 
Scotland data:

3 deaths

369 cases (likely to be significantly higher in reality - see above)

133 Greater Glasgow, 49 Lanarkshire, 48 Lothian

6.1% positive infers a low test number this is based on - the rest on their usual AWOL trip round Britain no doubt.

1041 in hospital (-8)

Ventilated 75 (-1)
 
Scotland 3 wks ago v 2 wks v last wk v today (with caveat on cases data today being largely meaningless).


Deaths (Sunday data so always low): 1 v 6 v 0 v 3 today Hard to interpret given the caveat

Cases: 912 v 917 v 948 v 369 + today - without knowing the true number hard to call.

But % positive test rate was 8.6% last Monday v 6.1% today.

Patients 1226 v 1227 v 1208 v 1041 today - as you can see big drop here similar to one in NW England in past week.

Ventilated 105 v 98 v 84 v 75 today - possibly THE most welcome number here as this clear fall hopefully means deaths in coming weeks will fall.
 
Marvin said:
Maybe they have had it?

I am just waiting now for the MHRA to approve the vaccine(s) and we can start to finish this.
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Even if they have they still have a responsibility. Who knows if they can catch it again etc? The end is in sight though, just need as a country to pull together and get over the line
 
If a vaccine really is so successful and is approved has anyone considered if existing labs around the world can be modified to start manufacturing it quickly to speed up delivery?

I am fearful that the US vaccines will be perceived as a state secret and cash cow for the companies who have hit on the best bet by chance and, especially in poorer countries, many will die because they cannot afford to get hold of this in big numbers.

Should not the UN be immediately planning some kind of vaccine regulation for the world not just drug companies in rich countries?
 
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Healdplace said:
If a vaccine really is so successful and is approved has anyone considered if existing labs around the world can be modified to start manufacturing it quickly to speed up delivery?

I am fearful that the US vaccines will be perceived as a state secret and cash cow for the companies who have hit on the best bet by chance and, especially in poorer countries, many will die because they cannot afford to get hold of this in big numbers.

Should not the UN be immediately planning some kind of vaccine regulation for the world not just dug companies in rich countries?
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Pfizer’s main manufacturing facility is in Belgium. They have already started exporting huge volumes.
 
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