COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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N Ireland data - covering several days

Deaths 14

Cases 1566 new ones added for last two days.

The weekly running total that fell to just over 2000 after the circuit breaker is now way back up to 5686.

Of these 3008 are under 40 and 966 over 60 with 225 over 80.

Care Home outbreaks up from 87 pre Christmas to 96 today.

There are 462 in hospital (up 15 on pre Christmas)

And 24 on ventilators up 1 on pre Christmas
 
Reports of a pub in Greenock, Inverclyde, prior to Christmas having officially been open as a 'takeaway service' selling pizzas and such like. Only, what they were really doing was putting pizzas through the till but not actually making them, instead having crowds of 50+ people inside and having a big fuck off Christmas party. Everyone mixing, drinking alcohol, no distancing, singing Christmas songs.

I've seen the video and it's fucking disturbing. Made me feel sick watching it.

Expect it to hit the media soon.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
I've read through it all but unsure I understand it fully, I again put that down to me being a bit simple about all of this. Is she suggesting that between now and enough of the country being vaccinated things could be catastrophic due to the rate of transmission or suggesting that even with the vaccination it now it looks like being catastrophic for a hell of a lot longer?
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Basically, yes.
We need to go into full lockdown tier 5 for at least two months (with all high schools closed) AND at least double (ideally treble) the vaccination rate.


The Government is loathed to shut schools but they are struggling to make a case for keeping them open - even using the army.

 
A mate of mine lives in Richmond which is Sunak’s constituency. Anyway, on 17th December he was on our WhatsApp group rubbing it in about being able to go for a curry and a few pints in his local ‘spoons and gleefully posting accompanying pics and vids while wishing us “Tier 3 wankers” a Merry Christmas. Nothing against any of that as we’re always on there winding each other up about something or other, and he wasn’t breaking any rules as they’re in Tier 2 but fast forward 10 days to Monday and lo and he’s now tested positive. Worse still, he’s now seriously worried that his son might catch it as he suffers from an ultra-rare genetic disorder called CFC Syndrome of which there are less than 1000 confirmed cases worldwide.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Reports of a pub in Greenock, Inverclyde, prior to Christmas having officially been open as a 'takeaway service' selling pizzas and such like. Only, what they were really doing was putting pizzas through the till but not actually making them, instead having crowds of 50+ people inside and having a big fuck off Christmas party. Everyone mixing, drinking alcohol, no distancing, singing Christmas songs.

I've seen the video and it's fucking disturbing. Made me feel sick watching it.

Expect it to hit the media soon.
Click to expand...

I'm expecting it to hit their lungs quicker.
 
So total cases for the 3 nations without England today are 5971 - though this is partly a two day total it is still veery high. With England yet to come.

1823 v v 1946 v 4516 v 5971 TODAY

Even allowing for the Christmas lag and catch up data today this shows the rapid increase in cases.

Especially as if anything England is increasing even more and still to come.
 
ganganvince said:
Something you would have more idea than me on but given the EU haven’t ordered the Oxford vaccine would they be prioritising markets that have ordered some.
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I don't know anything about how supplies are being allocated. But I do know that the final vial fill is localised across the globe - I think 25 different sites in all.

The EU have ordered the vaccine to the number of 400 million doses at least.

ec.europa.eu

Coronavirus: Commission reaches first agreement on a potential vaccine

Today, the European Commission has reached a first agreement with the pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca to purchase a potential vaccine against COVID-19 as well as to donate to lower and middle income countries or re-direct to other European countries.
ec.europa.eu ec.europa.eu
 
roubaixtuesday said:
The uk regulator is genuinely independent of govt, so they won't give a toss about Boris' timing.

Soriot was interviewed the other day; he'd know if there were concerns (the company gets formal questions from the regulator as part of the process) and would not have been so bullish if significant challenges are coming back.

Interestingly, the EMA said they lacked quality information. That means data on the manufacturing process, site(s), analytical techniques etc. First time that's been raised anywhere on this, so a bit odd.
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Someone just mentioned this to me and I haven’t seen anything about it yet.

Purely down to the above mentioned processes? Literally a case of delaying roll out in the EU until they’re all ticked off?
 
Deaths for the four nations without England non hospital to be added is 419 today

The Christmas registration lag will be a factor here so do not read too much into this.

3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v TODAY :- 406 v 332 v 488 v 419 TODAY
 
ayrshire_blue said:
I've read through it all but unsure I understand it fully, I again put that down to me being a bit simple about all of this. Is she suggesting that between now and enough of the country being vaccinated things could be catastrophic due to the rate of transmission or suggesting that even with the vaccination it now it looks like being catastrophic for a hell of a lot longer?
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The former mainly, but also suggesting the latter if this variant escapes the UK because of prevalence.

Personally I think it's too late to stop that already, but she's an epidemiologist and I'm not, so her views should hold more weight than mine!
 
Healdplace said:
So total cases for the 3 nations without England today are 5971 - though this is partly a two day total it is still veery high. With England yet to come.

1823 v v 1946 v 4516 v 5971 TODAY

Even allowing for the Christmas lag and catch up data today this shows the rapid increase in cases.

Especially as if anything England is increasing even more and still to come.
Click to expand...
What’s frightening is that people are still mixing freely and in large numbers and these figures will climb higher. They do reckon though that back in April the number of people who had the infection was 100k a day! Need the vaccine rolling out quickly and in huge numbers but we can’t rely on it. We have to get things under control and we could start by going back into a national lockdown. Sports stop, all non essential shops close, schools close etc
 
Not yet updated in detail but over Christmas England hospital patients rose from 18, 227 to 20, 426. Now higher than the Wave One peak in early April.

As so many of us have said in here for about 2 weeks now we NEED a national lockdown. Why is it taking so long for this to happen? Every day is hundreds of deaths and fewer hospital beds and likely an extra week we will need to be locked down for to row back the escalation caused by the delay.

Nothing about this makes any sense.

Yet whilst the virus accelerates to the timetable of a space rocket we prevaricate at the speed of a snail.
 
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Healdplace said:
Not yet updated in detail but over Christmas England hospital patients rose from 18, 227 to 20, 426. Now higher than the Wave One peak in early April.
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Which suggests cases are now at the level they really were in the Spring when we locked down. Shows how few cases were being caught first time round.
 
somapop said:
Someone just mentioned this to me and I haven’t seen anything about it yet.

Purely down to the above mentioned processes? Literally a case of delaying roll out in the EU until they’re all ticked off?
Click to expand...

Different regulators do take different views on things like how much stability data is needed. And we've seen FDA, MHRA and EMA take different times to approve the Pfizer vaccine.

It sounds like AstraZeneca have prioritised the UK application as EMA have said there has not yet been a formal application. The FDA have apparently requested the full readout of data from the ongoing trial on the low dose.

My speculation:

1. MHRA requested more data on low dose.
2. That data was submitted last week
3. MHRA will conclude interim review and grant temporary approval this week, most likely for the lower dose.
4. The same data will now be submitted to EMA. Their timeline is independent, no idea how long, but a short number of weeks.
5. Many rest of world countries will follow EMA.
6. Readout of that trial for FDA maybe during Feb, approval maybe March/April.

This is just personal speculation, I don't have any inside track here.

It's worth saying that it's not unusual particularly for fast tracked highly novel treatments for regulators to take different views on what data is needed, and also not unusual for them to make a different decision on approval. Here it's just much more visible, and the oxford/astra dataset is more complex to interpret than the Pfizer or Moderna packages.
 
blueparrot said:
Which suggests cases are now at the level they really were in the Spring when we locked down. Shows how few cases were being caught first time round.
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I don't think it's quite that bad yet.

Wave one you had to be at death's door before being admitted to hospital.

This time we're much more organised, and people are getting earlier treatment, so more admissions.

ICU numbers are still significantly down on wave one.

As policy seems to be not to increase restrictions until hospitals are in dire straits, we may well exceed wave one infections and deaths before long.
 
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