Coronavirus (2021) thread

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We live on the A34 in Cheshire, when i took our dog out it was very busy with cars a couple of hrs ago, where on earth was everyone going? Cant all be in bubbles surely. I suspect lots of people are just ignoring the rules sadly.
 
Here are the changes to the ten GM borough Weekly Pop Scores over past 7 days:

Pop Score is cases per 100,000 over past week. Lowest the better.

Borough v POP today v Pop 7 days ago v Increase/Decrease



BOLTON 188 - 144 - Up 44

TAMESIDE 218 - 156 - Up 62

OLDHAM 228 - 185 - Up 43

WIGAN 229 - 156 - Up 73

SALFORD 233 - 217 - Up 16

MANCHESTER 234 - 207 - Up 27

ROCHDALE 247 - 220 - Up 27

STOCKPORT 266 - 176 - Up 90

TRAFFORD 289 - 212 - Up 77

BURY 301 - 232 - Up 69


As you can see there no question who has had the worst week - Stockport. With Trafford not far behind. These two have gone from top 3 to bottom 3 in very quick order.

We might guess THIS is where the new variant might be. Watching these Pop score rises might be a good guide to that now the new variant is shown to be 25% of all GM cases from data just before Christmas - so almost certainly upwards of that now.

Interesting that Bolton, Tameside and Oldham - all of whom have had major outbreaks in recent months are now coping so much better.

But Wigan was too before Christmas but is now going up again.

Hard to see anything but rises if Tier 4 is being taken as seriously as we are hearing, As in often not.

Unless and until we get a proper lockdown I fear we will see numbers rise for a while yet.

Of course, this inevitably means that the current low hospital and death data in the NW is going to change upward too.

Especially when you remember that GM is actually doing far better than other parts of the NW - including Merseyside and East Lancashire and one of them is still in Tier 3.
 
Let's hope this thread is dead in a ditch somewhere with the Brexit thread this time next year!

Happy new year blues.
 
Before I head off for the night and wish you all as happy a New Year as you can possibly have here is something else I started to do today.

It will not need updating daily but will do from time to time.

I calculated the number of cases in total versus the population of the ten boroughs.

The number you see is the percentage of the population in each area who tested positive over the past 9 months.

Of course there will be some false positives and some the other way round and of course many others will have had it but were never tested - especially in the early days.

But this is a kind of base line figure to the % of the population in each borough who seem to have had Covid according to the tests.

It is basically the current Pop Score shown in a different way. But there are anomalies caused by peaks and troughs. And I used up to date population numbers. And there are some impacts from student numbers allocated.


STOCKPORT 4.2%

TRAFFORD 4.4%

TAMESIDE 5.2%

WIGAN 5,8%

SALFORD 5.9%

BOLTON 5.9% (Bolton and Salford have exactly the same Pop Score today of 5964 btw).

BURY 6,1%

MANCHESTER 6.6%

ROCHDALE 6.7%

OLDHAM 7.1%



As you can see a long way from herd immunity on these numbers alone at least.


HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL.
 
Healdplace said:
Before I head off for the night and wish you all as happy a New Year as you can possibly have here is something else I started to do today.

It will not need updating daily but will do from time to time.

I calculated the number of cases in total versus the population of the ten boroughs.

The number you see is the percentage of the population in each area who tested positive over the past 9 months.

Of course there will be some false positives and some the other way round and of course many others will have had it but were never tested - especially in the early days.

But this is a kind of base line figure to the % of the population in each borough who seem to have had Covid according to the tests.

It is basically the current Pop Score shown in a different way. But there are anomalies caused by peaks and troughs. And I used up to date population numbers. And there are some impacts from student numbers allocated.


STOCKPORT 4.2%

TRAFFORD 4.4%

TAMESIDE 5.2%

WIGAN 5,8%

SALFORD 5.9%

BOLTON 5.9% (Bolton and Salford have exactly the same Pop Score today of 5964 btw).

BURY 6,1%

MANCHESTER 6.6%

ROCHDALE 6.7%

OLDHAM 7.1%



As you can see a long way from herd immunity on these numbers alone at least.


HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL.
Click to expand...
Thanks for all your hard work this year HP
It really has been appreciated
 
Healdplace said:
Before I head off for the night and wish you all as happy a New Year as you can possibly have here is something else I started to do today.

It will not need updating daily but will do from time to time.

I calculated the number of cases in total versus the population of the ten boroughs.

The number you see is the percentage of the population in each area who tested positive over the past 9 months.

Of course there will be some false positives and some the other way round and of course many others will have had it but were never tested - especially in the early days.

But this is a kind of base line figure to the % of the population in each borough who seem to have had Covid according to the tests.

It is basically the current Pop Score shown in a different way. But there are anomalies caused by peaks and troughs. And I used up to date population numbers. And there are some impacts from student numbers allocated.


STOCKPORT 4.2%

TRAFFORD 4.4%

TAMESIDE 5.2%

WIGAN 5,8%

SALFORD 5.9%

BOLTON 5.9% (Bolton and Salford have exactly the same Pop Score today of 5964 btw).

BURY 6,1%

MANCHESTER 6.6%

ROCHDALE 6.7%

OLDHAM 7.1%



As you can see a long way from herd immunity on these numbers alone at least.


HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL.
Click to expand...

Happy New Year and thank you for all the updates. Here hoping next year you won't have to continually update this thread.
 
It’s a bit daunting looking back to the start of the old thread. Remember reading the article for the first time about China building a 1000 bed hospital in 10 days. I think it hit me then that this was going to be really bad, but I still wasn’t prepared for what we’ve endured. Best wishes to everyone and hopefully a better new year !
 
Healdplace said:
Before I head off for the night and wish you all as happy a New Year as you can possibly have here is something else I started to do today.

It will not need updating daily but will do from time to time.

I calculated the number of cases in total versus the population of the ten boroughs.

The number you see is the percentage of the population in each area who tested positive over the past 9 months.

Of course there will be some false positives and some the other way round and of course many others will have had it but were never tested - especially in the early days.

But this is a kind of base line figure to the % of the population in each borough who seem to have had Covid according to the tests.

It is basically the current Pop Score shown in a different way. But there are anomalies caused by peaks and troughs. And I used up to date population numbers. And there are some impacts from student numbers allocated.


STOCKPORT 4.2%

TRAFFORD 4.4%

TAMESIDE 5.2%

WIGAN 5,8%

SALFORD 5.9%

BOLTON 5.9% (Bolton and Salford have exactly the same Pop Score today of 5964 btw).

BURY 6,1%

MANCHESTER 6.6%

ROCHDALE 6.7%

OLDHAM 7.1%



As you can see a long way from herd immunity on these numbers alone at least.


HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL.
Click to expand...
Thanks for all your hard work this year, it really is greatly appreciated by us all.
 
Mr Coopz said:
It’s a bit daunting looking back to the start of the old thread. Remember reading the article for the first time about China building a 1000 bed hospital in 10 days. I think it hit me then that this was going to be really bad, but I still wasn’t prepared for what we’ve endured. Best wishes to everyone and hopefully a better new year !
Click to expand...

Its strange, i was petrified around that time aswell... now it's hit, and is set to be even worse the next few weeks - i feel a bit numb to it all.
 
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