Coronavirus (2021) thread

[meltonblue]

Just on the next few years, I highly doubt it will be similar to the last twelve months. The main impact is going to be continuous vaccine rollout, it’s already being planned as a yearly thing.

Even with that, there still will be an impact and that’s going to be with us to stay too but nowhere near the scale we’re going through now.

 

[M18CTID]

Officially 8 (few symptoms a day or two before).
I’ve been booked by my GP to have a call with a hot covid clinic this afternoon. They’ll assess and if required they’ll get me in (or someone out) to due oxygen sat levels...hopefully some other form of treatment too.

Hope you get sorted mate. Didn’t realise you were only 8 days into it. Feels like you’ve been battling this for weeks

 

[grunge]

Just on the next few years, I highly doubt it will be similar to the last twelve months. The main impact is going to be continuous vaccine rollout, it’s already being planned as a yearly thing.

Even with that, there still will be an impact and that’s going to be with us to stay too but nowhere near the scale we’re going through now.

If it has to go to a yearly roll out then the single shot vaccines that are on the way will be key. a 2 jab solution isnt very optimal for a yearly event.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Interested to see some links - I've not seen anything beyond potential worries yet.

Of course, what this does show is why it's so important to drive down cases.

There is huge pressure at the moment to open up the UK as soon as those most at risk from death (70+) are vaccinated. This absolutely must be avoided for two reasons:

(1) There will be a massive spike of infections in the u70s, who actually comprise the majority of cases in ICUs: we'll hospitalise and disable huge numbers of people.
(2) It's the perfect way to develop vaccine resistant strains - a segment who've only had one dose of a vaccine massively exposed to another segment where infection rates are sky high. If you *wanted* to develop a vaccine resistant virus, that would be the perfect strategy.

I'm guessing it's based on the link above which I had posted last night. As I say though, the post itself says it doesn't take into account T or B cells and their role in this thing, so perhaps not as bad as it sounds? I do still wonder if although they do the same job, vaccine induced antibodies might have a greater effect than prior infection due to amounts involved - again if that were to be the case then this might not be the end of the world. Hopefully anyway.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I'm guessing it's based on the link above which I had posted last night. As I say though, the post itself says it doesn't take into account T or B cells and their role in this thing, so perhaps not as bad as it sounds? I do still wonder if although they do the same job, vaccine induced antibodies might have a greater effect than prior infection due to amounts involved - again if that were to be the case then this might not be the end of the world. Hopefully anyway.

Thanks, I'd seen that. Looks like, for now, there is evidence from lab assays that these new variants have some impact on immunity, but certainly not complete escape. How significant is as yet unknown. There does not yet seem to be any evidence of increased levels of reinfection.

Mutations were always know to be an issue. None of this seems to be a reason for panic, but it *does* strengthen the case that many public health experts have made from the start:

We need to drive cases as low as possible, ideally to zero. Living with a high level of infections is not a sensible strategy.

 

[blueparrot]

I’m unsure, but does mean they are still detecting antibodies in those that had it back in spring / summer ?
These are from Oct/ Dec so if done now those with antibodies must be higher than these figures.



The proportion of the population testing positive for Covid-19 antibodies almost doubled between October and December 2020, according to Office for National Statistics estimates.

Approximately one in 10 people had antibodies against the virus across the UK in December, with England topping the list at one in eight people or about 12% of the population.

That equates to 5.4 million people over the age of 16.

In Wales, an estimated one in 10 had antibodies and one in 11 in Scotland. The likelihood of having antibodies was lowest in Northern Ireland at one in 13 or 7.6%.


Since October, the number of people with Covid antibodies has increased across the UK.

Yorkshire and the Humber has overtaken London as having the highest proportion of people with antibodies at 16.8%, up from 9.5% when the ONS last published the figures in October, and from below 5% in May.

London is close behind at 16.4%, up from 11% in October. At the last peak in May, 15% of the population in London had antibodies, but this fell, as detectable antibodies recede with time.

In the North West, 15% of people had antibodies, more than doubling from 6% in October.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-55715793

 

[twosips]

Thanks, I'd seen that. Looks like, for now, there is evidence from lab assays that these new variants have some impact on immunity, but certainly not complete escape. How significant is as yet unknown. There does not yet seem to be any evidence of increased levels of reinfection.

Mutations were always know to be an issue. None of this seems to be a reason for panic, but it *does* strengthen the case that many public health experts have made from the start:

We need to drive cases as low as possible, ideally to zero. Living with a high level of infections is not a sensible strategy.

I trust this fella hugely. He's very, very good. His tone in reply to Kucharskis's tweets is incredibly telling, and it's a big change in tone by his standards having followed him for a while. Yes, there may be some protection still, but I can't pretend it isn't concerning.

 

[Cityfan]

Officially 8 (few symptoms a day or two before).
I’ve been booked by my GP to have a call with a hot covid clinic this afternoon. They’ll assess and if required they’ll get me in (or someone out) to due oxygen sat levels...hopefully some other form of treatment too.

Good luck with it and hope you get better quick.

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

If that is the case then to a certain extent all we will be doing is existing rather than living. People will start to feel battle fatigued and will start to rebel against the restrictions.
Some may take the view that we are all going to go at some point so we might as well enjoy ourselves before we do.

The most worrying aspect will be those people who have the jab thinking they can suddenly go about their everyday lives again.

The standard of reporting on what this jab actually affords is downright pathetic.

Most of the papers yesterday reporting we are all ready to book our summer holidays...

Excuse me, last time I heard, the jab reduces the severity of Covid for those most at risk, there is no such knowledge yet of it stopping transmission from those administered it.

Millions of people will still be waiting in line for their turn, so their ability to infect/contract remains the same, as does the threat posed by those of the populous who start to think 'I'm alright Jack', having had the jab but still able to infect others.

There is a gross misrepresentation of what this vaccine will afford us, certainly this year.

Other countries are further behind us in the roll out, so it is completely selfish and irresponsible of the mass media to talk about normality in the coming months, booking holidays, etc.

It is a not a Covid killer jab, it is a window of some immunity for a period of time, so we need to understand that this might be with us for the long term.

The biggest challenge will be suppressing the behavior of those who believe they are somehow 'clean' and the rules suddenly don't apply.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I trust this fella hugely. He's very, very good. His tone in reply to Kucharskis's tweets is incredibly telling, and it's a big change in tone by his standards having followed him for a while. Yes, there may be some protection still, but I can't pretend it isn't concerning.

Vaccines should still offer protection against the more severe symptoms even for those lineages.

 

[domalino]

I trust this fella hugely. He's very, very good. His tone in reply to Kucharskis's tweets is incredibly telling, and it's a big change in tone by his standards having followed him for a while. Yes, there may be some protection still, but I can't pretend it isn't concerning.

"It won't make much of a difference in all likelihood"

Sometimes I think you do go out of your way to find things to worry about.

 

[blueparrot]

The most worrying aspect will be those people who have the jab thinking they can suddenly go about their everyday lives again.

The standard of reporting on what this jab actually affords is downright pathetic.

Most of the papers yesterday reporting we are all ready to book our summer holidays...

Excuse me, last time I heard, the jab reduces the severity of Covid for those most at risk, there is no such knowledge yet of it stopping transmission from those administered it.

Millions of people will still be waiting in line for their turn, so their ability to infect/contract remains the same, as does the threat posed by those of the populous who start to think 'I'm alright Jack', having had the jab but still able to infect others.

There is a gross misrepresentation of what this vaccine will afford us, certainly this year.

Other countries are further behind us in the roll out, so it is completely selfish and irresponsible of the mass media to talk about normality in the coming months, booking holidays, etc.

It is a not a Covid killer jab, it is a window of some immunity for a period of time, so we need to understand that this might be with us for the long term.

The biggest challenge will be suppressing the behavior of those who believe they are somehow 'clean' and the rules suddenly don't apply.

You are right as far as we know it doesn’t stop transmission, but like the flu vaccine, if it stops most people suffering the worst effects and in the vast majority dying, then we may have to live with transmission. In that case things will get back to some normallity and like flu we will have to asses our own risk, make sure those at a higher risk have the option up to date vaccination.
Whether that’s this summer or autumn remains to be seen but I would say it will be when everyone over 40 has had or been offered their second dose, some normality and holidays can resume.

 

[twosips]

"It won't make much of a difference in all likelihood"

Sometimes I think you do go out of your way to find things to worry about.

He's clearly referring to the endpoint being the virus being endemic with or without vaccines. Think context is needed there - he's referencing his prediction. Having followed him for a while he's been of the opinion that this will end at the same point. It'll either just be more painful one way, or less painful another. Thus even if we get a vaccine escaping variant, he thinks we're heading to the same end goal. Just the more painful way.

Edit - and no, of course I don't go looking for things. I go looking for things to make me feel better! I'm sick of worrying. I don't feel like myself anymore and all I want is things to grab onto. Sadly, when you go looking for reasons to reassure you, in this world there are just as many to knock you down right now.

 

[twosips]

Vaccines should still offer protection against the more severe symptoms even for those lineages.

He does literally say it's a vaccine escaping variant too. Surely these two things contrast? I read it as hopefully it'll reduce the symptoms for some, but it won't be as effective. And if it can mutate this soon to vaccine escaping potential, why can't it mutate even more and reduce effectiveness further, sooner? Even he is surprised it's happened this quickly. Maybe i'm wrong. Apologies if so. It's hard not to see the worst side when everything feels pretty glum.

 

[inbetween]

I'm guessing it's based on the link above which I had posted last night. As I say though, the post itself says it doesn't take into account T or B cells and their role in this thing, so perhaps not as bad as it sounds? I do still wonder if although they do the same job, vaccine induced antibodies might have a greater effect than prior infection due to amounts involved - again if that were to be the case then this might not be the end of the world. Hopefully anyway.

Antibodies are of little relevance to immediate immunity because the vast majority of people have zero antibodies to COVID yet most people exhibit zero to mild symptoms. T-cell response is for me the difference between a severe case and an asymptomatic case because antibodies here just don't matter.

T-cells in particular are mediated by Vitamin D and studies have found that most people who attend hospital are deficient of Vitamin D. Men in particular have lower levels of Vitamin D and men often get the worst of COVID infections. Add in obesity (obese people are almost always vitamin D deficient), diabetics (same), older people (same) and well the evidence starts to mount up. This also explains why countries like Japan with elderly populations have seen very low death rates (very high Vitamin D levels in the population).

Vitamin D crucial to activating immune defenses

Scientists have found that vitamin D is crucial to activating our immune defenses and that without sufficient intake of the vitamin - the killer cells of the immune system -- T cells -- will not be able to react to and fight off serious infections in the body. The research team found that T...

www.sciencedaily.com

Vitamin D levels appear to play role in COVID-19 mortality rates

Researchers analyzed patient data from 10 countries. The team found a correlation between low vitamin D levels and hyperactive immune systems. Vitamin D strengthens innate immunity and prevents overactive immune responses. The finding could explain several mysteries, including why children are...

www.sciencedaily.com

There is a lot of scaremongering on this subject but we have to remember that the vast majority of people recover without a vaccine. Many are suffering indeed but the vaccine is only designed to offer lasting protection for future severe cases either via antibody response or other unknown responses from the immune system.

There is zero evidence out there that any vaccine is ineffectual yet there are tens of thousands of identified variants. This would of been reflected as poor efficacy in the clinical trials but some of the efficacy results were so good that they were almost unbelievable.

I have absolutely no doubt that the vaccine will provide lasting and long protection, maybe to the point where we can eradicate COVID. It all depends on the unknown element of the immune system and the fact is we've only had around 3 months to learn about it.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Referring to a question a bit above -
I don't know which part of the virus the antibodies automatically generated by infection target.
The vaccines provoke a response for the spike part, and nothing else.

I would think it entirely possible that the vaccine-provoked reaction is stronger/better than infection-provoked.

(edited)

 

[Nellies left peg]

We all tested positive, results came through over night

Keep well, keep hydrated and best wishes to you and your family

 

[MillionMilesAway]

I'm also inclined to trust the boffins to react and create new vaccine versions as needed.

The years of research into the types of vaccines being used means they can react fairly quickly, and quite possibly before many people are due a vaccine shot anyway.

I'm a bit upset that the makers don't appear to be licensing the tech to anyone who wants to make it.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

He does literally say it's a vaccine escaping variant too. Surely these two things contrast? I read it as hopefully it'll reduce the symptoms for some, but it won't be as effective. And if it can mutate this soon to vaccine escaping potential, why can't it mutate even more and reduce effectiveness further, sooner? Maybe i'm wrong. Apologies if so. It's hard not to see the worst side when everything feels pretty glum.

I don't think you're wrong, or unreasonable. But I do think it's possible to worry too much.

An analogy:

There's a risk of an asteroid strike wiping out humanity. NASA actually run a programme to monitor thousands of them, and every so often find one that *might* have a close pass to earth. Sometimes, these reach the news. Nobody worries about them, there aren't long threads on Bluemoon.

Now, we're actually going through the disease equivalent of a minor asteroid strike. What if we'd had an actual asteroid strike, killing millions, and asteroid shelters had been built to make us immune to the next one?

Now, NASA detects a new asteroid which *might* come close, and *might* mean the shelters weren't designed exactly right. Would we worry? Damn right we would! Would the risk be high of a catastrophic hit? No. Would the shelters still protect most people? Probably.

Mutations were always going to happen. There is a risk of a bad new strain. The risk is not high of it being catastrophic, and we do have the tools to respond to it, even if it is.

Just my personal views, I'm not a virologist (or a planetary scientist, come to that)!

 

[mosssideblue]

The most worrying aspect will be those people who have the jab thinking they can suddenly go about their everyday lives again.

The standard of reporting on what this jab actually affords is downright pathetic.

Most of the papers yesterday reporting we are all ready to book our summer holidays...

Excuse me, last time I heard, the jab reduces the severity of Covid for those most at risk, there is no such knowledge yet of it stopping transmission from those administered it.

Millions of people will still be waiting in line for their turn, so their ability to infect/contract remains the same, as does the threat posed by those of the populous who start to think 'I'm alright Jack', having had the jab but still able to infect others.

There is a gross misrepresentation of what this vaccine will afford us, certainly this year.

Other countries are further behind us in the roll out, so it is completely selfish and irresponsible of the mass media to talk about normality in the coming months, booking holidays, etc.

It is a not a Covid killer jab, it is a window of some immunity for a period of time, so we need to understand that this might be with us for the long term.

The biggest challenge will be suppressing the behavior of those who believe they are somehow 'clean' and the rules suddenly don't apply.

I had the same feeling that those vaccinated will feel "released". I fear more the younger generation thinking they now have a free pass as they think they cannot harm anyone.

I cringed at yesterday's press conference when at question time, someone asked could we look forward to opening up the country in March once the most vulnerable groups had been vaccinated. The mindset of too many needs recalibration imo