Coronavirus (2021) thread

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PannickAtTheDisco said:
Maybe we'll move back to it if such data is conclusive, and the people delayed brought forward. The flip side is a lot more people not being vaccinated at all.
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There will probably be a number of conflicting reports over how much protection is provided over the coming months.
Maybe the Government should consider giving two doses within the the three weeks to the top three groups whose immune systems are the weakest and applying the twelve week gap to the next groups whose immune systems have a better chance of putting up a defence against the virus.
 
Blue and still suffering said:
There will probably be a number of conflicting reports over how much protection is provided over the coming months.
Maybe the Government should consider giving two doses within the the three weeks to the top three groups whose immune systems are the weakest and applying the twelve week gap to the next groups whose immune systems have a better chance of putting up a defence against the virus.
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Hopefully if we can get the supply chain ramped up we can move back to 3 weeks for everyone, hopefully it was just a short-term measure due to concern over the new variant and needing to get the most vulnerable some level of protection during the lockdown period. We do need concrete data from those vaccinated as soon as it's available though.
 
Marvin said:
ANyone else see Newsnight? I watched Newsnight tonight and at the end there was a researcher from Bath who said that it appears that the 1st vaccine bestows up to 30% immunity which is much less than hoped. That was not a mis-type. Alarming. Presumably a 2nd jab would make it good? COuld be rogue research / information but it was on newsnight.
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Saw this earlier too along similar lines. Lots of caveats in there but it certainly adds to the noise around all this

www.theguardian.com

Single Covid vaccine dose in Israel 'less effective than we thought'

Surge in infections dampens optimism over country’s advanced immunisation programme
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
twosips said:
Saw this earlier too along similar lines. Lots of caveats in there but it certainly adds to the noise around all this

www.theguardian.com

Single Covid vaccine dose in Israel 'less effective than we thought'

Surge in infections dampens optimism over country’s advanced immunisation programme
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Sky noted the difference could be at least partially from the Israelis using the PCR test to show the presence of Covid-19 as their marker, whereas Pfizer used symptomatic cases. We'll need to see the Israeli data but hopefully if it raises issues the Government will prioritise second doses ASAP for Pfizer. Don't think the Israelis are using Oxford so we'll have to see on that one. It's good to get early data which will hopefully nip any issue in the bud as best as possible early. You obviously have to hope the Government make the right decision for people but the weight of retaining public confidence in vaccines and needing to get out of the lockdown may hopefully even push this government in the right direction.
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
what's the alternative? No vaccine and no immunity?
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I think maybe we should be going a bit slower to ensure that everyone gets the two doses within the correct time frame and k owing hand on heart that those people are done, dusted and as safe as can be.

Rather than giving them a dose, in 12 weeks time finding out those people aren't covered because the first one has subsided too much and frantically trying to get them a second dose.
Potentially then we could start finding out that it's been too long a gap between injections and so this is new their new first dose. Then they are basically getting this 3rd dose but the manufacturer says its never been tested giving people essentially 3 doses and all whilst we should have been in a position to relax the restrictions and start moving towards a normal life again.

This has the potential to be a mass e fuck up.... Or, we lower our expectations and get it right first time.
 
HolisticJim said:
I think maybe we should be going a bit slower to ensure that everyone gets the two doses within the correct time frame and k owing hand on heart that those people are done, dusted and as safe as can be.

Rather than giving them a dose, in a few weeks time finding out those people aren't covered and frantically trying to get them a second dose.
Potentially then we could start finding out that it's been too long a gap between injections and so this is new their new first dose. Then they need a 3rd dose but the manufacturer says its never been tested giving people essentially 3 doses and all whilst we should have been in a position to relax the restrictions and start moving towards a normal life again.

This has the potential to be a mass e fuck up.... Or, we lower our expectations and get it right first time.
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I would hope if it's an issue that's arising we correct the path. I'd have stuck with the original plan but I understood why the government tried what they did. We can only hope we end up getting it right for the benefit of everyone.
 
Didsbury Dave said:
The alternative was to give the second injection after a month, which is what the manufacturers recommended.
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Hopefully the MHRA will comment or at least be asked the question once the official paper on this is published. I understand that Israel are receiving supply quicker in return for the data, so they are following strictly the Pfizer protocol. They suggest around 30% protection at 14 days and a significant increase in antibodies after the second injection, would be interesting to know if they tested the antibodies at day 21 prior to the second jab to give better context.
 
Healdplace said:
They are still doing second jabs now at less than 12 weeks. From the ones who had the first one in December. But in modest numbers.

They want to cover the over 60s and all the otherwise vulnerable before the date arrives in early April when most of the first wave started this month need dose 2.

In fact those booking now get a choice of dates in April for dose 2 according to my friend who gets her first one on Friday at the Etihad and has her date for April for the second. She was given a choice of there or Macclesfield.

By then they will likely be using pharmacies and lots of such places to do almost on demand for the less vulnerable.

And by April there are other vaccines likely to be approved and coming here so stocks will be much higher than now.

If all goes well we should be able to do this. But that's a big if with the entire world wanting the vaccine in a hurry.
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That's my concern double vaccine double vials double the people needed. If we average 200,000 a day as an example it will need to become 400,000 a day give or take from April.

The less at risk groups may need a bit more patience unfortunately.
 
HolisticJim said:
I think maybe we should be going a bit slower to ensure that everyone gets the two doses within the correct time frame and k owing hand on heart that those people are done, dusted and as safe as can be.

Rather than giving them a dose, in 12 weeks time finding out those people aren't covered because the first one has subsided too much and frantically trying to get them a second dose.
Potentially then we could start finding out that it's been too long a gap between injections and so this is new their new first dose. Then they are basically getting this 3rd dose but the manufacturer says its never been tested giving people essentially 3 doses and all whilst we should have been in a position to relax the restrictions and start moving towards a normal life again.

This has the potential to be a mass e fuck up.... Or, we lower our expectations and get it right first time.
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This government fuck up well that will be a first.
 
International vaccine comparison. Germany is about EU average. Denmark is best in EU, France are rubbish.

(Israel is off the chart at ~30%)

The UK acceleration is when the Oxford/AZ jab got approval. That's expected in Europe end Jan.

Our 3 month gap policy probably means the difference in numbers who've had at least one shot is even greater.

Lots of noise in the UK about how unfair differences between locations are; personally I think that's inevitable with such a fast response and we should just let them get on with it for now at least, and be patient.

The only thing I fear is getting wrong with this right now is opening up too soon, and a 3rd (4th?) wave sweeping the young and middle aged.



20210120_080414.jpg
 
SB Blue said:
Hopefully the MHRA will comment or at least be asked the question once the official paper on this is published. I understand that Israel are receiving supply quicker in return for the data, so they are following strictly the Pfizer protocol. They suggest around 30% protection at 14 days and a significant increase in antibodies after the second injection, would be interesting to know if they tested the antibodies at day 21 prior to the second jab to give better context.
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FWIW, It wouldn’t be a precedent for the NHS to have shared data for more cooperation from Big Pharma. There has been big collaborative studies in Scotland into diabetes for donkeys.

Regarding the researcher from Bath on Newsnight last night. It was concerning to hear about the reported 30% efficacy from first Pfizer dose. Hopefully, the protection is greater than and it’s helpful to know that’s the efficacy at 14 days. Some of the other things the researcher said about distribution, refrigeration and staffing problems appeared to be guesses based on the most likely problems that conveniently helped with the sales pitch with work going on in Bath re. maintaining the stability of vaccines.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
(Israel is off the chart at ~30%)
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I read that the reason that Israel and the UAE have such high vaccination rates was because they are available to individuals as walk in and buy and not through a national organisation such as the NHS. I presume that this means that the usual outlets for medicines etc can order either directly or through a wholesaler. This system would then not be limited by the availability of staff and large premises. If this is correct its another reason why the government's refusal to supply small quantities to individual pharmacies is wrong.
 
SB Blue said:
Hopefully the MHRA will comment or at least be asked the question once the official paper on this is published. I understand that Israel are receiving supply quicker in return for the data, so they are following strictly the Pfizer protocol. They suggest around 30% protection at 14 days and a significant increase in antibodies after the second injection, would be interesting to know if they tested the antibodies at day 21 prior to the second jab to give better context.
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Antibody responses and serum titre at those time points are in the phase I trial results published last year.

Paper:
www.nature.com

Phase I/II study of COVID-19 RNA vaccine BNT162b1 in adults - Nature

In a dose-escalation study of the COVID-19 RNA vaccine BNT162b1 in 45 healthy adults, RBD-binding IgG concentrations and SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing titres in sera increased with dose level and after a second vaccine dose.
www.nature.com www.nature.com

Figure:
Screenshot_20210120-083044_Chrome.jpg

The 30 ug was taken forward, I think.

I'm not sure anything significantly different to the trial results is yet evident from Israel. Exactly what the 30% number means we'll see.
 
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