Thanks for the clarification. I thought you meant the priority groups, which is just down to u70s I think.
I think "opening up" to near normal requires something like:
1. Headroom in hospitals in case things go in the wrong direction, and to enable the health service to . Both total COVID beds and ICU COVID beds to a small fraction of what they are now.
2. Very low case load - I'd suggest well down into the hundreds, as it was last summer. That means that if cases start growing, it can be contained without trashing the health service again. Or if the vaccine isn't quite as good as we hope, we can readjust to getting 2nd doses in place.
3. Track and trace up to speed. Again, to keep a lid on any outbreaks, including new variants of concern.
4. Doing it slowly. Primary schools / wait a couple of weeks, Secondary schools/ wait a couple of weeks. Shops, pubs with social distancing, etc until we get a full Etihad in September. If we're lucky, and vaccine passports might be essential for mass gatherings if we haven't got really high vaccine coverage.
All the things we're really missing like pubs, family gatherings, footie, will come faster in the end rather than slower if we keep this controlled.
On "real world" - clinical trials are very closely controlled. Everyone has the jab exactly when they should, eligible people are closely checked, the population often omits the most vulnerable. Just for instance, here whilst the trials did include over 70s, fully half of the deaths in the real world are in over 80s. Will that even older group respond as well? We don't know. Will the 2nd jab make more of a difference for those people? Probably. Most medical treatments show better results in clinical trials where these things are closely controlled than when used with the general public. The emerging Israeli data, for instance, doesn't look quite as good as the trial data (though *very* early to judge, and still very good from what we can see).
