Coronavirus (2021) thread

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a few months ago we could only dream of where we are now and especially on the vaccine front. There’s a lot to criticise with this Government but going over board on this is typical of the moaning society we live in.

I think not mentioning it was poor. But that there is a delay - I don't think you can expect this to go without any hitches. We've been spoiled by how incredibly well it's gone so far.
 
With vaccinations at 26 million say and let’s say 5 to 10 million on top of that - we could be at 30 to 35 million of a 70 million population? At what stage do we / couid we say we have herd immunity?
 
a few months ago we could only dream of where we are now and especially on the vaccine front. There’s a lot to criticise with this Government but going over board on this is typical of the moaning society we live in.
I don't think so its more inconsistency in what they say to be honest, particularly Hancock.
Sorry I just dont like the guy.
 
I don't think so its more inconsistency in what they say to be honest, particularly Hancock.
Sorry I just dont like the guy.

fair enough but do you really think he makes the decisions ? He has a huge team of advisors including loads of scientists and health care workers. He’s just a mouthpiece.
 
you think the timescales are too tough?
I see no reason why outdoor hospitality cannot open tomorrow.
I see no reason why outdoor sports cannot return tomorrow.
I see no reason why shops, hairdressers, gyms and other similar services cannot open tomorrow with social distancing requirements.
The road map is fine it itself, but it should all be moved forward by 2 or 3 weeks.
 
fair enough but do you really think he makes the decisions ? He has a huge team of advisors including loads of scientists and health care workers. He’s just a mouthpiece.
Possibly not but I feel totally deflated tonight too be honest.
Just seems all the good news on the vaccine has been replaced with worry, hesitation and now probably delay out of lockdown.
 
The maths is just illustrative that a major and rapid surge is still possible. Vaccines aren't 100% effective either. Vaccination programs can be delayed.

Given long COVID and the economy wide disruption another surge would entail, I'm not sure on QALYs but await your economic analysis with interest ;-)

I think we're doing OK right now. If cases remain well under control, I think it's likely it will go faster than govt have set out. Better this than yet another nightmare of hospitals full of the suffering and dying.
The 'illustrative' maths also doesn't consider the seasonal effect that kept this low all of last summer too, as most things opened up.

I don't have the data but I'd love to hit a dig into the cost of the last 12 months vs the years of life saved and compare the standard threshold for treatment approval under the QALY method.

I recall a professor of risk management at Bristol produced a study suggesting that a 5-6% permanent drop in GDP would cost the equivalent of 500k lives due to lower life expectancy.
 
I see no reason why outdoor hospitality cannot open tomorrow.
I see no reason why outdoor sports cannot return tomorrow.
I see no reason why shops, hairdressers, gyms and other similar services cannot open tomorrow with social distancing requirements.
The road map is fine it itself, but it should all be moved forward by 2 or 3 weeks.
They've explained the reasoning behind the 5 week periods several times if you bother to listen.

Open something up, wait 4 weeks to see the data, then a week to make decisions based on the data.

If the data is great after 2 weeks, and they open up, cases will climb, and in 2 weeks we could be looking at closing everything again.

We've done things too quick previously, and look where that led, it led to people like you saying they don't learn the lessons, well it seems they might have this time, so they'll stick with the plan, whilst protecting more and more people in the process.

If you want normality (whatever that will be), then be patient.
 
Yes, because that's how society works and is literally the whole point of the vaccination programme.

Let's simplify your question.

Do you want the people who cannot have a covid vaccine to be able to mingle with people for whom it hasn't worked?

Do you want the people for whom a vaccine hasn't worked but voluntarily received it to be able to mingle with those who are vaccinated?

Do you want those who are vaccinated to be able to mingle with anyone who isn't in any capacity?

Where would you as an individual draw the lines?

Subsitute covid for any other disease that kills people for which a vaccination is readily available. Flu? Measles? Should we segregate those people too?

Perhaps I'm over-estimating people's abilities to think bigger picture here, but let me repeat exactly what i said in my previous post: It's not about this example, it's not about covid, it's about what this may allow a government to do in future.

I don't think government should exist in anywhere close to the capacity it does anyway, so i'm probably wasting my time on this argument.

Edit: I just saw the last line in the attached quote. If i'm worried about other things throw away my phone and pc? I'm only allowed to be concerned about one thing at a time? What a blinkered world view. Shame.
Please tell us which group of people, apart from pregnant women and those who are at risk from severe anaphylactic shocks, can't have the vaccine? If you are in latter group I doubt you'd put your life at risk mingling with cunts who don't give a fuck about others anyway.

This is a dangerous virus, stop making excuses, measures were brought in during the two world wars that people didn't like but they were accepted and implemented because it was for the greater good. This is no different and most people accept the rules and recommendations, there's just some awkward fuckers who won't comply. I think they're wrong but it's their choice, they can't complain when for example when they can't fly abroad for their holidays, and that will be fuck all to do with our government
 
Speculation: According to the Graun AZ has said it's meeting it's 2m dose a week commitment. "Global AZ issue" was cited by govt. Conclusion: AZ was planning to spring more supplies from India, but that's proved not possible, perhaps because the Indian govt has stopped it.

As I say, speculation.
The problem is the Indian supply of AZ vaccines but I don’t think we know the reason why. We are getting 5mil doses rather than the contracted 10mil during the affected month, from late March.

The Department of Business are running the procurement of vaccines and presumable told the NHS that supplies of vaccines would be doubling up, before the delay in vaccine deliveries emerged.
 
Real world single dose efficacy in England reported (over 70s)
  • Takes ~4 weeks to kick in
  • 60% against any symptoms
  • 80% against hospitalisation
  • 85% against deaths
Similar for both vaccines, and some significant error bars, particularly on the AZ (smaller numbers) - could be a bit worse or quite a lot better.



The bit I’m struggling to comprehend are the vaccine passports and what they are looking to achieve? The vaccine doesn’t stop you catching it or presumably passing it on, so what benefit does only allowing vaccinated people travel etc. when the only risk that is mitigated is that they are less likely to die or end up in hospital?
 
The bit I’m struggling to comprehend are the vaccine passports and what they are looking to achieve? The vaccine doesn’t stop you catching it or presumably passing it on, so what benefit does only allowing vaccinated people travel etc. when the only risk that is mitigated is that they are less likely to die or end up in hospital?
There is evidence,but not yet confirmed, that it reduces transmission.
 
The bit I’m struggling to comprehend are the vaccine passports and what they are looking to achieve? The vaccine doesn’t stop you catching it or presumably passing it on, so what benefit does only allowing vaccinated people travel etc. when the only risk that is mitigated is that they are less likely to die or end up in hospital?
It's probably because a handful of British people having to go to hospital in Spain or Greece or wherever is an acceptable result of opening up travel, whereas shedloads of people needing to be hospitalised abroad wouldn't be acceptable.
 
Bulgaria has seen a 40% rise in cases in the past week.

Restaurants reopened at the beginning of March, and night clubs were due to return to business in April.
 
Bulgaria has seen a 40% rise in cases in the past week.

Restaurants reopened at the beginning of March, and night clubs were due to return to business in April.
They have vaccinated less than 5% of their population so is it any wonder cases are increasing if they have already opened up large parts of their economy?
 
The bit I’m struggling to comprehend are the vaccine passports and what they are looking to achieve? The vaccine doesn’t stop you catching it or presumably passing it on, so what benefit does only allowing vaccinated people travel etc. when the only risk that is mitigated is that they are less likely to die or end up in hospital?

There are rarely absolutes in medicine, but it absolutely does reduce the risk of you catching it - by 60% with one shot according to those figures.

Evidence is growing that transmission is reduced significantly too - though it's very difficult to estimate exactly by how much. It's likely that the viral load of vaccinated people is lower so they're less infectious even if they have it.

And of course hospitalisation and death is reduced too.

So vaccine passports (without commenting on whether they're a good idea or not overall) for travel should:
- reduce the risk of transmission to others
- reduce the risk of healthcare burden in the country you're travelling to.
 
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