I'll be seeing my parents for the first time this year on Boris's say so this week - there may be more idiots like me doing similar.My hope is that the opening up tomorrow may not change things as much as people think. I think those who want to mix and get out and about, have already been doing so, and those that don’t aren’t going to rush out tomorrow. I’ve been inside my daughters house and my fathers house, the first providing a childcare bubble and the second visiting a vulnerable adult. That will stay the same for quite a while. And is anyone really going hug someone tomorrow just cos Boris says it’s ok?
My thoughts entirely, I'm off walking Hadrian's Wall tomorrow now accommodation is back open. Never waste a day.My mum is almost 83 and my dad almost 90. Both double jabbed and will go anywhere. Myself double jabbed and my sister and her husband have had one jab. We all went for four days in a lodge in Wales. Out every day and each time had a drink outside a pub. All being well we are away in six weeks and they have booked a week in Almunaca in November. As soon as things open I am off to Tenerife for six weeks at least. Life is for living and comes with no guarantees. Once elderly that is definitely the case.
Agree, don't think re-opening pubs and restaurants will be the catalyst for a spike some think, as vaccinations and low levels reduce infection risk.My hope is that the opening up tomorrow may not change things as much as people think. I think those who want to mix and get out and about, have already been doing so, and those that don’t aren’t going to rush out tomorrow. I’ve been inside my daughters house and my fathers house, the first providing a childcare bubble and the second visiting a vulnerable adult. That will stay the same for quite a while. And is anyone really going hug someone tomorrow just cos Boris says it’s ok?
My thoughts entirely, I'm off walking Hadrian's Wall tomorrow now accommodation is back open. Never waste a day.
SAGE were told and did in fact repeatedly put forward suggestions for positively rewarding adherence to measures such as isolation. But it was nearly all dismissed, and what positive measures we ended up with were frankly rubbish.
Zoe App
Predicted Cases 2403 - down 201.
North West FALLS out of the mid pink top level leaving just Yorkshire and Scotland still there.
Predicted symptomatic cases 32, 647 (down 344)
Second day running both have fallen.
NORTH WEST NUMBERS
(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)
OLDHAM 68 / 290 v 543 / 2321 - a gigantic drop takes it out of the risk areas
BOLTON 215 / 758 v 516 / 1822 - Down also so much it is out of the risk area.
NOWHERE IN GM NOW IN ANY WATCH ZONE (OVER 1000 estimated cases per million.) ON ZOE
Others GM Areas:-
BURY 43 / 228 v 70 / 372 -good fall also
MANCHESTER 86 / 157 v 321 / 589 - yet another good fall
ROCHDALE 18 / 81 v 40 / 182 - like all of the above well down
SALFORD 21 / 82 v 47 / 188 - another big fall here.
STOCKPORT 53 / 183 v 176 / 609 - dropped hugely again in 24 hours
TAMESIDE 19 / 87 v 49 / 217 v 38 - same as above
TRAFFORD 84 / 358 v 196 / 837 - though now the highest in GM still well down on yesterday and under1000
WIGAN 35 / 108 v 169 / 521 - another borough going down like an elevator
Chorley is the only hot spot in NW in the watch zone (over 1000) but having dropped too by a lot to just 128 / 1107 v 465 / 4011
Fylde (Blackpool) is well down on 62 / 782 v 135 / 1719 and out of the pink zone
High Peak (Glossop/Whaley Bridge/Buxton) is down only a little on 204 / 2230 v 223 / 2436
High Peak is now far and away the worst on Zoe in the North West.
Very odd.
But these numbers do seem to yo yo on Zoe an awful lot day to day.
I do not know why Zoe do it this way. They have tinkered a lot with their data to try to get it to work right as it is all based in guesstimates from numbers reported not actual cases as the Gov. uk data.hi
I thought the pop score was based on number of people per 100k.
why is it now a million?
For anyone interested, a very long but interesting thread of possible projections from someone who's modelled outcomes based on a variety of factors (rate of increase of transmission 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%?...seasonality factors, vaccine programme with slight loss of efficacy, changing vaccine strategy, keeping/removing some controls etc).
Correct me if I’m wrong, but shouldn’t we expect Bolton figures to be relatively high due to surge testing? Door to door is bound to pick up a number of asymptomatic that ordinarily wouldn’t have had a test so don’t think we need to panic, as yet.Sadly GM is up by 52 on the day (NW up just 37) - Bolton more than all of BOTH these on its own - by 66 to 145.
And week to week GM is up by 65 (NW is up 89 week to week so GM quite a lot of it) - Bolton 54 of that week to week rise on its own.
Wigan up 10 week to week is the other main GM culprit today (though at 17 in total not catastrophic versus Bolton's 145) - so these two between them cover a lot of the wk to wk rise.
Manchester still low on 30 and everyone else just up or down by small numbers wk to wk.
Bury still a bit up also and only Oldham, Salford & Tameside (best on just 3) are in single figures.
But no obvious hints that anywhere but Bolton in GM is in trouble or starting to emulate its sudden rise 2 weeks ago thankfully.