Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Greater Manchester Cases


288 cases today - up 37 on day. From 432 North West cases. GM Rose to 66.7% of NW cases. Well over par.




Bolton - went the wrong way again but only by 8 - to 153 - up 64 on last week. Pop score rise today was 53.


Manchester up 9 to 39. Up 9 on last week. Gap between Bolton and Manchester is 114 - one less than yesterday!

Trafford still struggling up by 9 to 21 - most in a coupe of weeks and up 3 wk to wk.

Salford rises by 10 to 17 which is up 8 on last week.

Bury up 3 on 15 which is up 11wk to wk. Bury still not doing well.

Wigan is down 4 on 13 - which is down 3 wk to wk.

Rochdale up 3 also on 13 - which is down 5 week to week.


The other three boroughs are in single figures:

Stockport down 2 on 8 which is down 1 on last week.

Oldham up by 2 to 7 - which is the same wk to wk.


And top again:-


Tameside is down 1 on just 2 which is lowest GM score in weeks and down 2 wk to wk.
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 327/ 169 / UP 158 Testing positive 9.7%

Manchester 48 / 41 / UP 7 Testing positive 9.7%

Bury 42 / 22 / UP 20 Testing positive 9.1%

Rochdale 40 / 50 / DOWN 10 Testing positive 9.7%

Wigan 36 / 27 / UP 9 Testing positive 8.9%

Trafford 36 / 31 / UP 5 Testing positive 7.1 %

Stockport 33 / 30 / UP 3 Testing positive 7.2%

Tameside 32 / 24 UP 8 Testing positive 8.2

Salford 29 / 33 / DOWN 4 Testing positive 9.1%

Oldham 20 / 27 DOWN 7 Testing positive 9.8%




Bolton still climbing and over 300 for first time in months for a GM borough - also above the rest by 279 ahead of the rest. This gap is growing which is bad for Bolton but good for the rest of GM as nobody is rising much to close that gap.

Wigan and Bury are the ones to watch in coming days. Still edging up as is Trafford.

Oldham easily best in GM well clear of the rest.



Remember going down in this table is good not bad!
 
Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-


Bolton over 900 weekly cases - pushing 4 times Manchester and 12 times the top few boroughs looking scary but not yet spreading elsewhere which is what matters.

Bury still struggling a little compared with being top a week ago.

Wigan is still over 100 with Manchester and Bolton.

Back to just 3 over 100 - though - as Rochdale and Stockport did better in past couple of days happily.


Oldham 47. Tameside 72, Salford 76, Bury 79, Trafford 85, Rochdale 91, Stockport 96, Wigan 120, Manchester 268, Bolton 941.
 
If this variant is so contagious, why is Covid falling across the Indian sub-continent and across the globe at the moment? Why aren;t Bangladesh and Pakistan experiencing problems?

I see UK experts are predicting that this variant will takeover in the UK very soon but if so, why are we not seeing global growth? Would the UK be the first place after India to be hit? Questionable
 
Marvin said:
If this variant is so contagious, why is Covid falling across the Indian sub-continent and across the globe at the moment? Why aren;t Bangladesh and Pakistan experiencing problems?

I see UK experts are predicting that this variant will takeover in the UK very soon but if so, why are we not seeing global growth? Would the UK be the first place after India to be hit? Questionable
Click to expand...

Isn't it just that we do much more sequencing than just about anywhere else so are able to track it/measure it better than the majority of the world? As in, total cases in countries around the globe might be falling (same as they are here) but in many countries the Indian variant will be ever-growing as a % of their total cases (again same as what's currently happening here)?
 
HOSPITAL DATA



Summary:

UK patients just 946 in hospital with Covid. England under 800.

There are also now single figure numbers on ventilators ( just 8) in the other three home nations bar England added together. And under 150 patients now too in the three nations combined.

England admissions in the 70s per day all weekend - lower than ever. But NW might be showing first signs of the Bolton effect though nothing too serious just now - a stall rather than a fall. For now. But this needs carefully watching in coming days.


UK total:




Patients down to 946 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 38, 302 in 119 days) :- lowest since 14 September

Ventilators UP 1 to 125 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3952 in 113 days) : lowest since 17 September


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

70 Covid admissions following 73, 74, 93, 79, 76, 76, 80 in the week before.

As you see daily Covid admission numbers in England under 100 consistently. Indeed 5 of last 6 in the 70s.




PATIENTS:-

Patients down by 20 to 798 v 944 last week :- lowest since 13 September

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 33, 538 in 119 days)

Ventilators: UP 2 to 117 v 135 last week :- lowest since 17 September

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3619 in 113 days)



Regions:


Patient // Ventilators // change in past days to today and v last week


East down 4 to 56 v 72 // Stays at 4 v 4

London UP 8 to 259 v 281 // down 1 to 50 v 59

Midlands down 11 to 144 v 187 // down 2 to 16 v 21

NE & Yorks down 19 to 110 v 146// Stays to 19 v 23

North West UP 1 to 152 v 163 // UP 4 to 18 v 16

South East UP 8 to 62 v 64 // Stays at 7 v 8

South West down 3 to 15 v 31 // UP 1 to 3 v 4
 
BlueAnorak said:
Without quotes, I would agree with you, but do tell me why Government Sage Sub Committee members(Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group) have said explicitly that some if their behaviour has been unethical?
Click to expand...

Well, cynic that I am, I suspect the creator of the "cultural talking point" of "100 vaginas" has a deep understanding of the power of controversy in making money, and has taken quotes out of context to make her cash from the epidemic.

And the "Telegraph", as noted here only yesterday, will print any old rubbish as long as it fits their agenda, and no longer worries about facts.

But provide me a non paywalled copy and I'll tell you more.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Isn't it just that we do much more sequencing than just about anywhere else so are able to track it/measure it better than the majority of the world? As in, total cases in countries around the globe might be falling (same as they are here) but in many countries the Indian variant will be ever-growing as a % of their total cases (again same as what's currently happening here)?
Click to expand...
But if this variant was significantly more contagious, why don't we see it yet in the global data? Worldometer data for Indian subcontinent doesn't show anything alarming. I appreciate that if you looked at the headline data for the UK you would not seen anything yet either but I would have thought we might see increases in the neighbouring states to India on the grounds that they'd see more effects due to travel than anywhere else?
 
Marvin said:
But if this variant was significantly more contagious, why don't we see it yet in the global data? Worldometer data for Indian subcontinent doesn't show anything alarming. I appreciate that if you looked at the headline data for the UK you would not seen anything yet either but I would have thought we might see increases in the neighbouring states to India on the grounds that they'd see more effects due to travel than anywhere else?
Click to expand...
It's a good question, and I'm only speculating, but I seen someone post that in UK terms with the 'Kent Variant' we're only at about October or November 2020 time right now in relation to the 'Indian variant'. If that makes sense? As in, it's been found quickly but if not controlled it may be another month or two before cases properly escalate.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
It's a good question, and I'm only speculating, but I seen someone post that in UK terms with the 'Kent Variant' we're only at about October or November 2020 time right now in relation to the 'Indian variant'. If that makes sense? As in, it's been found quickly but if not controlled it may be another month or two before cases properly escalate.
Click to expand...
No vaccine then though was there? With continuing vaccination, surge testing, vaccinations for everyone over 18 in some boroughs there’s no need to think it will escalate or cause hospitalisations to anything like the same degree. Huge amount of testing being done now and still looks reasonably stable. We’re hopefully in a completely different place now.
Additionally with the news some of the hospital cases are people who could already have had the vaccine but didn’t it make give the rest locally the kick up the arse they need
 
Tonster said:
No vaccine then though was there? With continuing vaccination, surge testing, vaccinations for everyone over 18 in some boroughs there’s no need to think it will escalate or cause hospitalisations to anything like the same degree. Huge amount of testing being done now and still looks reasonably stable. We’re hopefully in a completely different place now.
Additionally with the news some of the hospital cases are people who could already have had the vaccine but didn’t it make give the rest locally the kick up the arse they need
Click to expand...

No you're right, the vaccines are a game changer in so many respects. But, with the transmission rate reportedly up to 50% higher it takes the herd immunity threshold to a higher position too so in turn leaving a lot more people susceptible and more age groups probably requiring vaccination.
 
@roubaixtuesday @03 March 2002 @Marvin and anyone

I've got a serious anti vax chap, someone who has developed vaccines for years, who is against the current suite. He doesn't advocate zero vaccine just those with vulnerabilities. His argument is based on the following

" I'm concerned that the spike protein of sars-cov-2 is pathogenic. The vaccines either make you produce the spike protein (mRNA) or deliver it (adenovirus). In most it will hopefully be quickly recognised, antibodies produced and a degree of immunity achieved. In some this won't happen, we'll possibly get circulating spike proteins with the ability to cause adverse events related to vascular dysfunction."

www.qeios.com

Adverse events after COVID-19 vaccination: Vector- or spike-induced?

Efficacious and safe vaccines are needed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. mRNA and viral vector vaccines are authorized for use in many countries. Cases of thrombosis and/or thrombocytopenia are some of the serious adverse events reported so far. He...
www.qeios.com www.qeios.com

www.mdpi.com

SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Elicits Cell Signaling in Human Host Cells: Implications for Possible Consequences of COVID-19 Vaccines

The world is suffering from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). SARS-CoV-2 uses its spike protein to enter the host cells. Vaccines that introduce the spike protein into our body to elicit virus-neutralizing...
www.mdpi.com www.mdpi.com

I have to admit I'm confused, but I think it looks like too small a sample
 
shemnel said:
@roubaixtuesday @03 March 2002 @Marvin and anyone

I've got a serious anti vax chap, someone who has developed vaccines for years, who is against the current suite. He doesn't advocate zero vaccine just those with vulnerabilities. His argument is based on the following

" I'm concerned that the spike protein of sars-cov-2 is pathogenic. The vaccines either make you produce the spike protein (mRNA) or deliver it (adenovirus). In most it will hopefully be quickly recognised, antibodies produced and a degree of immunity achieved. In some this won't happen, we'll possibly get circulating spike proteins with the ability to cause adverse events related to vascular dysfunction."

www.qeios.com

Adverse events after COVID-19 vaccination: Vector- or spike-induced?

Efficacious and safe vaccines are needed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. mRNA and viral vector vaccines are authorized for use in many countries. Cases of thrombosis and/or thrombocytopenia are some of the serious adverse events reported so far. He...
www.qeios.com www.qeios.com

www.mdpi.com

SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Elicits Cell Signaling in Human Host Cells: Implications for Possible Consequences of COVID-19 Vaccines

The world is suffering from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). SARS-CoV-2 uses its spike protein to enter the host cells. Vaccines that introduce the spike protein into our body to elicit virus-neutralizing...
www.mdpi.com www.mdpi.com

I have to admit I'm confused, but I think it looks like too small a sample
Click to expand...

Seems highly speculative and nothing to undermine the fundamental that COVID is far higher risk than vaccination; as we've seen with AZ, even very rare events are picked up by monitoring systems.

If there were a sudden uptick in cases of any rare condition, I'm very confident we would know about it, and hundreds of millions of doses of these vaccines have been given.
 
paulchapo said:
Fucks sake I'm sure it's never going to end this nightmare because they don't want it to. How do they know what will happen in a month?

www.itv.com

Likelihood of full lockdown restrictions ending on June 21 'close to nil' | ITV News

'Not everything we've set out for 21 June is likely to happen,' a government adviser has told ITV News Political Editor Robert Peston. | ITV National News
www.itv.com www.itv.com
Click to expand...
They don't know and I suspect that is what is behind that story. I reckon the govt will be regretting coming up with these dates at 5 week intervals although tbf they did stress data not dates at the time but the dates made better news. The mood music now is definite expectation management - much easier to keep expectations low then hopefully exceed them.
 
Healdplace said:
Patients down to 946 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 38, 302 in 119 days) :- lowest since 14 September

Ventilators UP 1 to 125 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3952 in 113 days) : lowest since 17 September


England only:-

ADMISSIONS:- 70 Covid admissions following 73, 74, 93, 79, 76, 76, 80 in the week before.

As you see daily Covid admission numbers in England under 100 consistently. Indeed 5 of last 6 in the 70s.
Click to expand...

Steady as she goes. I'm finding this continued decline in hospitalisations and patient numbers immensely reassuring.
 
Correct me if im wrong, but im sure I heard in the news that all of the 19people recently admitted to hospital in Bolton and Darwin with indian variant covid were all eligible for the vaccine but had chosen not to have it. If this is true then surely it should be part of the headline news, not a footnote in it.

Perhaps if you decline the offer of a vaccine you should be made to have medical insurance to cover any care you may need if you catch covid. At least then I wont have to pay for these ignorant peoples stupidity.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Seems highly speculative and nothing to undermine the fundamental that COVID is far higher risk than vaccination; as we've seen with AZ, even very rare events are picked up by monitoring systems.

If there were a sudden uptick in cases of any rare condition, I'm very confident we would know about it, and hundreds of millions of doses of these vaccines have been given.
Click to expand...
Cheers I appreciate that. I tried that but unfortunately some of the group are rallying behind his long words. It's incredible, I think he's so intelligent so I'm a bit scared some of what he says holds a lot of weight.
 
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