Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Scotland data:

Up and up sadly

2 deaths - was 2 last week

992 cases - was 641 cases last week Highest since 17 Feb

UK is at the start of a third wave Nicola Sturgeon accepts

Positivity STILL rising at 3.9%

Patients 116 patients - up 6 on yesterday - up 26 on last week

8 ventilated - same as yesterday - up 2 on last week

304 cases Greater Glasgow, 213 Lothian, 144 Tayside

Today every single helth board area in Scotland had at least 1 case Nicola Sturgeon adds.
 
ONS survey shows cases in UK rising everywhere.

England worst - doubled from 1 in 1120 to 1 in 640

Wales best - estimated as 1 in 1050 - but small early signs it is being impacted by influx of Delta across the border from the North West of England

N Ireland 1 in 800

Scotland 1 in 680
 
Wales data:

0 deaths - was 0 last week

71 cases - was 32 last week

0.5% positivity - was 0.3% last week

Small but notable rise in positivity and more than doubling of cases
 
davealvers said:
This is what you seem to be missing. The scientists will NEVER say ‘ok we’re good to go now’ (a medical end to a pandemic) because there will ALWAYS be variants coming along that ‘may’ be more transmissble and ‘could’ evade vaccines. The scientists have already shown they simply will not ever be capable of saying it’s the end until all risks have been eliminated now and going forward, which of course will never happen. Of course from an epidemiological POV that’s understandable because they don’t have to worry about the impact such advice has on the economy or welfare of citizens as that’s not their brief. That is down to politicians but unfortunately, although I appreciate they have a difficult job, they have demonstrated absolute incompetence, weakness, lack of leadership and slopey shoulders. If they wait for scientists to tell them everything is ok and things can get back to normal then that WILL NEVER HAPPEN.

Which leaves us with a social ending of the pandemic when everyone just gets fed up with it and decides enough is enough. Those that are scared of this killer virus that most survive and most are vaccinated against will overtake those that are happy to live with restrictions ad nauseum. Humanity has only ever eradicated smallpox and so the zero covid advocates are the loons around here not those that have long since realised we need to get on with our lives before living morphs into existing.

At what point does destroying the entire travel / hospitality / tourism industries (delete as appropriate) and the associated livelihoods of those in those sectors, along with the untold damage being done to generations of young people outweigh the theoretical risks of variants that will NEVER EVER stop coming along?

There is no exit strategy it is clear as day and those that are cheerleaders for the government’s incompetence are complicit in the damage they are causing. Why have they not pumped billions into increasing NHS capacity for winter?

A little piece on medical v social endings. Not saying it is definitive but it is worth musing for those sat at home cowering away waiting for Neil Ferguson etc to tell you everything is ok…..

www.nytimes.com

How Pandemics End (Published 2020)

An infectious outbreak can conclude in more ways than one, historians say. But for whom does it end, and who gets to decide?
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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I’m not missing anything . You are missing the simplicity of it.

There will come a point soon (literally the next few weeks) where the rules are changed. Scientists will suggest that between 21st June to about 5th July we should relax current restrictions and the govt will enact that, just like they did on for 17th May. And until then everyone should follow the rules that are in place now. Not their own interpretation of the current rules, not their own rules because they’ve had one or two jabs, the actual rules that are in place until they change… which the will be soon.

I don’t know why you’re bringing up destroying sectors of industry and business, that’s got nowt to do with following the current rules until they’re relaxed. I don’t know why you’re bringing up exit strategies, that’s got nowt to do with following the current rules until they’re relaxed. I don’t know why you’re talking about govt cheerleaders, or cowering away; I don’t like the govt and as soon as I can do more things through the relaxation of rules, I’ll be doing them but until then I won’t.

You’re just rambling a load of words that have nothing to do with following current rules until they’re relaxed (which is what I was talking about).
 
splinter said:
Uk approves Pfizer jab for use in 12 - 15- year- olds
Click to expand...

Not sure how I feel about this. My daughter is nowhere near 12 yet but she won’t be getting the vaccine that’s for sure. I had it, but injecting kids with a new vaccine for something that doesn’t affect them doesn’t sit right.
 
Healdplace said:
Scotland data:

Up and up sadly

2 deaths - was 2 last week

992 cases - was 641 cases last week Highest since 17 Feb

UK is at the start of a third wave Nicola Sturgeon accepts

Positivity STILL rising at 3.9%

Patients 116 patients - up 6 on yesterday - up 26 on last week

8 ventilated - same as yesterday - up 2 on last week

304 cases Greater Glasgow, 213 Lothian, 144 Tayside

Today every single helth board area in Scotland had at least 1 case Nicola Sturgeon adds.
Click to expand...

Depressing figures. Especially Glasgow given there was hope it had spiked but got itself under control, obviously not.
 
ZOE DATA:

ANOTHER BIG RISE UNFORTUNATELY

Estimated Cases up 758 since yesterday to 6798

Ongoing symptomatic infections up 5343 (most in many months) to 74, 771

These numbers are still escalating not showing any sign of slowimg at all.



GM DATA ON ZOE

Bolton unfortuntely is UP today on 3053 - from 1258 yesterday.


But not the highest in GM again. Several boroughs ahead of it now.


Bury has risen a bit again to 7779 from 6873. Well clear as highest.



Oldham up a bit at 4375 from 4022.


Trafford falls a lot to 4335 from 6742 and the 8000s two days ago - though Tameside is likely above it (and it has RISEN again into the 14,000s but not enough local data to guarantee accuracy so discounted by Zoe).


Rochdale also up a bit at 3496 from 3177 yesterday. And also above Bolton

Only the rest are actually LOWER than Bolton on Zoe now.

Manchester edges up to 2917 from 2820. So very close to Bolton number.

As do:-

Wigan rises to 2779 from 2485

Stockport also up to 2521 from 2289.

Salford - bafflingly given its big rise in cases and 105 of them yesterday - is STILL the lowest in GM on Zoe. This is really unexplained and they should be questionning it like they do Tameside.

But it is still showing as only just in the lowest watch zone on 1269. Though that is up from 1155 yesterday.
 
Healdplace said:
ZOE DATA:

ANOTHER BIG RISE UNFORTUNATELY

Estimated Cases up 758 since yesterday to 6798

Ongoing symptomatic infections up 5343 (most in many months) to 74, 771

These numbers are still escalating not showing any sign of slowimg at all.



GM DATA ON ZOE

Bolton unfortuntely is UP today on 3053 - from 1258 yesterday.


But not the highest in GM again. Several boroughs ahead of it now.


Bury has risen a bit again to 7779 from 6873. Well clear as highest.



Oldham up a bit at 4375 from 4022.


Trafford falls a lot to 4335 from 6742 and the 8000s two days ago - though Tameside is likely above it (and it has RISEN again into the 14,000s but not enough local data to guarantee accuracy so discounted by Zoe).


Rochdale also up a bit at 3496 from 3177 yesterday. And also above Bolton

Only the rest are actually LOWER than Bolton on Zoe now.

Manchester edges up to 2917 from 2820. So very close to Bolton number.

As do:-

Wigan rises to 2779 from 2485

Stockport also up to 2521 from 2289.

Salford - bafflingly given its big rise in cases and 105 of them yesterday - is STILL the lowest in GM on Zoe. This is really unexplained and they should be questionning it like they do Tameside.

But it is still showing as only just in the lowest watch zone on 1269. Though that is up from 1155 yesterday.
Click to expand...
Great timing for June 21st
 
Nicola sturgeon says Scotland in a fragile situation with the r number above one..
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
I’m not missing anything . You are missing the simplicity of it.

There will come a point soon (literally the next few weeks) where the rules are changed. Scientists will suggest that between 21st June to about 5th July we should relax current restrictions and the govt will enact that, just like they did on for 17th May. And until then everyone should follow the rules that are in place now. Not their own interpretation of the current rules, not their own rules because they’ve had one or two jabs, the actual rules that are in place until they change… which the will be soon.

I don’t know why you’re bringing up destroying sectors of industry and business, that’s got nowt to do with following the current rules until they’re relaxed. I don’t know why you’re bringing up exit strategies, that’s got nowt to do with following the current rules until they’re relaxed. I don’t know why you’re talking about govt cheerleaders, or cowering away; I don’t like the govt and as soon as I can do more things through the relaxation of rules, I’ll be doing them but until then I won’t.

You’re just rambling a load of words that have nothing to do with following current rules until they’re relaxed (which is what I was talking about).
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I think you'll find Devealvers is right in what he is saying. Zero hospitalisations of people who have had a jab in the last week is all the proof I need that things should open up more. Yes cases will rise (so what) it's the hospitalisations that matter and I for one will not staying in to protect people who can't be arsed getting a jab. They can stay in and isolate if they want but I'll be out having fun and spending money. The government has to ignore scientific advice when it makes no economical sense and that time is now
 
OTHER ZOE APP NUMBERS



Preston is still the worst in the NW other than Bury - on 7770 - slightly up from 7752.

Bury is JUST ahead of it as highest numbers in the NW on 7779.

Chorley rises to 4420 from 4108 above much of GM.

And Wyre is up from the 3000s to 4360 (Wyre is the area around Blackpool and Fleetwood).

Leeds is now the highest in Yorkshire at just 3386. Numbers in Yorkshire are much less high in real life and any uotick is small as yet and cases are nowhere near the NW.

They are ONE QUARTER of NW when just 3 weeks ago Yorkshire was AHEAD of the NW. It has grown with this new variant more slowly than anywhere else. We should be asking why?

Just to show this more clearly.

Yesterday here were the regional reported cases.

NB:- THESE ARE IN REAL LIFE REPORTED CASES DATA - NOT ON ZOE.

With the number from 7 days ago in brackets to see the weekly change

NW 1643 (1025)

LONDON 573 (295)

SOUTH EAST 440 (310)

YORKSHIRE 421 (305)

WEST MIDLANDS 315 (196)

EAST MIDLANDS 244 (322) * Note the FALL

EAST 210 (388) * And and even bigger FALL

SOUTH WEST 132 (65)

NORTH EAST 113 (165) * the only Northern region to fall week to week.
 
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BerkshireBlue said:
I think you'll find Devealvers is right in what he is saying. Zero hospitalisations of people who have had a jab in the last week is all the proof I need that things should open up more. Yes cases will rise (so what) it's the hospitalisations that matter and I for one will not staying in to protect people who can't be arsed getting a jab. They can stay in and isolate if they want but I'll be out having fun and spending money. The government has to ignore scientific advice when it makes no economical sense and that time is now
Click to expand...
That has absolutely nothing to do with what I was talking about though. Im talking about following the current rules now until the time they’re relaxed. Im not saying they shouldn’t be relaxed.

If people are being told to isolate now while the rules still say they should isolate, whether they’ve had no jabs one jab or two jabs, they should do that until the rules are changed to say we don’t have to do that anymore. Nobody should be making their own rules up. The bloke was wrong when he implied that a negative COVID test means they dont have COVID, because it can take up to ten days to present itself, which is why isolation lasts ten days.

I never mentioned anything about not lifting restrictions.
 
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Loads of places opened now that weren't open, more testing than ever, who didn't expect cases to rise? We have to get on with living. So long as hospitals aren't overun and deaths increasing sharply amongst the vaccinated then carry on. The fearful, the ones who don't want to be vaccinated can sit indoors if they want. The extremely vulnerable I feel sorry for but they would be most likely isolating anyway. Keep the jabs going, keep living our lives.
 
So you can judge where we are versus where we were around the same phase of the December wave - pre vaccines of course - the key difference between the Kent variant wave and the India variant wave now. Though season and degree of lockdown factors in too, of course.

On 10 December (a Thursday) the UK had 20, 964 cases at a % rating of 5.9.

We are at almost exactly a quarter of that in case numbers and the % rating is about half. But the many self tests do make that difficult to calculate.

On that Thursday versus Yesterday here are the numbers:

DEC v NOW

CASES 20, 964 v 5274

DEATHS 386 v 18

ADMISSIONS TO HOSPITAL 1751 v 115

PATIENTS IN HOSPITAL 16, 722 v 928

VENTILATED PATIENTS 1267 v 135
 
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On 10 Dec Wales had 33 deaths and 1968 cases - v 0 deaths and 71 cases today. Piositivity was 15% v 0.5% today.

There were 1328 in hospital v 22 yesterday and 83 on ventilators v 3 yesterday.

Wales - the most vaccinated nation - is far and away the best improvement note.
 
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