Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-





Tameside 298, Oldham 323, Rochdale 407, Trafford 433, Bury 437, Wigan 655, Stockport 695, Salford 745, Bolton 917, Manchester 1499.



Manchester is now pulling well clear. Bolton second but Salford and Stockport closing in fast. With Wigan not far behind.

We must keep hoping for a flattening off and fall that must come soon.

Nobody now left below 200 either and only Tameside JUST managed to stay below 300 today!
 
Forewarned it forearmed as they say.

Ever since the Kent variant came along, this has been a race between vaccine development and viral evolution.

What do you think that graph shows?
I suppose it shows that the evolutionary pressure on viruses is to mutate into something more spreadable - not more deadly, as there is no point killing the hosts. The paradox we face it seems is that better and more thorough vaccination will interact with this evolutionary pressure to come up with evermore virulent mutations. It seems to be a numbers game with something around a 1% fatality rate for covid - so a more contagious variant will produce bigger numbers. Not sure what the answer is. We were always going to see an upturn in numbers as we came out of lockdown. I personally think we won't really be able to get a handle on how well thew vaccine is doing until sometime in October when the schools have had a few weeks to act as a human petri-dish, and the change in the seasons ushers in a rise in all respiratory virus types.
 
For the sake of your own mental wellbeing its best to stick to official messages rather than rumours passed around work and WhatsApp groups. I remember in March 2020 when a load of people over here suddenly had a friend/uncle/brother/cousin/sister in the Guards who had apparently said motorways were going to be shut to stop travel between cities. It never happened.
 
It's 80% of adults, not all citizens, so we're probably further from herd immunity than that - schoolchildren are driving the current wave.

And herd immunity would probably require double vaccines, and maybe half of that 80% is people with only one vaccine?

But yes, it's very good news. It also means that every vaccine gets us proportionally a bigger step towards herd immunity, so vaccinating now makes a much bigger impact to R than it did it January.
Correction accepted.
Though it may help explain the plateuing of cases in Bolton.
 
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