Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Tim of the Oak]

Anyway, there is a fair amount of good news. 2 jabs give 90% protection from the Indian variant. Unlimited crowds at weddings and wakes. (I bet the people crying on TV about dancing restrictions at weddings have never broken the speed limit). The outlook for jobs is improving and share values continue to recover.

 

[BlueAnorak]

I fucking astounds me as an island we aren’t way ahead on stopping this virus coming in, oh wait the incompetence and stupidity of this government not stopping people coming in with variants. I’m not arsed about people not getting the vaccine, if they die fuck em, I’m done now with this shit. We were told get the over 50s and vulnerable done and we would be done,they’ve moved the goalposts again next it will be anyone over the age of 10! 3 people died yesterday 3, so the whole travel, hospitality industries will be destroyed because of it, it’s ridiculous.
I get the science but science says cars are destroying the environment but we are still all driving cars and indeed more die everyday in car crashes, let’s ban them and save lives and the environment. Open up the country but ban foreign travel unless you isolate in a hotel at least we can get this country going again.

Trying to stop the chattering classes having three or four weeks in the sun or the ski slopes is a fools errand. Far too many of of the twats work in government.

 

[hammocity]

So capacity crowds will be allowed for the Wimbledon finals on Centre Court - with the roof on if it pisses down - and football fans are allowed to bounce all over each other at Wembley, Hampden, etc, yet you can't dance at a wedding, and are strongly advised not to dance even if the wedding is outdoors in a big fuck off marquee.

Yep, sounds really fair and logical that!

I don't get dancing, we weren't put on this earth to do silly things with our arms and legs. One of my mates is nicknamed "the dancing dustbinman" self explanatory, his legs start twitching at the mere hint of music, I just look on bemused at people doing the shapes, probably because I tried it once with Mrs H and I was like a tree trunk caught in a hurricane, I'm never getting married again.

 

[lancs blue]

If so then these predictions are from 3 weeks ago when the increase in R0 was unknown. It is now known to be 40% more infectious so a natural R0 of 5. Similar shite assumptions on vaccine and antibody effectiveness too.

They say these are not predictions as such but projected scenarios based on various R values projected from available data to 7th June. They are careful throughout the paper not to commit to any one of the scenarios for R= 1.2, 1.5, 1.8 or 2.1 as a favoured prediction.

11. Each week, SPI-M-O combine estimates from several independent models to project the trajectory of the epidemic if no further changes in behaviour or policy take place. They represent what the trajectory might be if the epidemic continued to follow the trends seen in the latest available data up to 7th June. They are neither forecasts nor predictions
and cannot fully reflect recent changes in transmission that have not yet filtered through into surveillance data. They are published separately as SPI-M-O medium-term projections.

12. Three of these same models have further been used to explore the potential impact of a range of scenarios following changes in transmission. These scenarios assume R changes to 1.2, 1.5, 1.8, or 2.1 on 21st June5, and run for a further six weeks. These scenarios are shown on a logarithmic scale in Figure 3 (R=1.2 – green; 1.5 – blue; 1.8 – yellow; 2.1 – red) for England’s hospital admissions alongside the latest medium-term projection of current trends (grey) for comparison.

 

[Dave Ewing's Back 'eader]

Folk marching down Whitehall with placards informing us that 99.97% of the population haven't died! And on that basis they want to come out of lockdown. It seems they couldn't give a fuck about those who are ill, those who have to provide medical assistance, the families of those infected. I'm alright, Boris, let's get shot of all these rather inconvenient measures - masks, red light countries, et al. Let's just get back to where we were in 2019 and fuck anything else.

 

[bluemoon32]

 

[Gremlin]

So capacity crowds will be allowed for the Wimbledon finals on Centre Court - with the roof on if it pisses down - and football fans are allowed to bounce all over each other at Wembley, Hampden, etc, yet you can't dance at a wedding, and are strongly advised not to dance even if the wedding is outdoors in a big fuck off marquee.

Yep, sounds really fair and logical that!

In pure mathematical terms the number of close contacts from these events is probably far lower (this is only about 5 or 6 'test events' and, even if there are 40,000 people there you're not going to be in close contact with all of them, only the ones near you) than the potentially several hundred weddings that might take place.

The optics may not be good but it is logical from a mathematical modelling point of view which is where the scientists advising the government are coming from.

 

[M18CTID]

Anyway, there is a fair amount of good news. 2 jabs give 90% protection from the Indian variant. Unlimited crowds at weddings and wakes. (I bet the people crying on TV about dancing restrictions at weddings have never broken the speed limit). The outlook for jobs is improving and share values continue to recover.

I certainly haven't because I don't drive!

 

[M18CTID]

In pure mathematical terms the number of close contacts from these events is probably far lower (this is only about 5 or 6 'test events' and, even if there are 40,000 people there you're not going to be in close contact with all of them, only the ones near you) than the potentially several hundred weddings that might take place.

The optics may not be good but it is logical from a mathematical modelling point of view which is where the scientists advising the government are coming from.

Don't get me wrong - I get some of that but the issue with these test events for me is that none of these people will be travelling in Covid-secure bubbles to and from the venue. We had it with the League Cup Final. Only the City fans had to travel on "Covid-secure" transport, yet those fans arriving on trains were then permitted to travel on the tube to Wembley which kind of rendered the Covid-secure transport thing meaningless.

 

[BlueHammer85]

I don't get dancing, we weren't put on this earth to do silly things with our arms and legs. One of my mates is nicknamed "the dancing dustbinman" self explanatory, his legs start twitching at the mere hint of music, I just look on bemused at people doing the shapes, probably because I tried it once with Mrs H and I was like a tree trunk caught in a hurricane, I'm never getting married again.

Haha. Made me chuckle that.

always thought, if you watched a nightclub without Music - you’d think wtf are they doing.