Coronavirus (2021) thread

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The scare stories over AZ were terribly handled as they have caused vaccine hesitancy in the ones elligible for it and shortages in those who are not.

THat BBC Horizon feature length documentary this week on the race to make the vaccines will not have helped as it was edited to leave the message about AZ as more or less saying one country has stopped using it because they found it just does not work.

This is obviously nonsense or the UK would be in a giant hole right now given the amount of AZ we have administered often to the most vulnerable and Delta rising everywhere.

But it seems bizarre that they let the BBC create that impression again. I have not seen any comment on it anywhere. I expected the programme to sign off with the good news proving that rejection of AZ was wrong via real life numbersn - but - unless I fell asleep and missed it - they seemed not to do.
 
Wales data:

1 death - was 0 last week

416 cases - was 176 last week

2.5% positivity - was 1.3% last week


Sadly this is not two days data - it is just from Frday.

So a more than doubling in the week as Delta now colonises Wales - a lot of it coming in from NW England.

Tomorrow WILL be two days data for all this weekend. I fear it will not be pretty.
 
By the way Andrew Marr on his show this morning revealed that despite being double jabbed some time ago he was off last week not for a break but because he had Covid.

He says he caught it when covering the global summit in Cornwall.

He also said it made him quite sick but he was not ill enough to go into hospital.

He got double jabbed early I assume due to his vulnerability after his stroke.

So this is kind of good news. Especially as he was well enough to return to work after just a few days.

Suggests again the vaccines work in doing what they are supposed to do - even if statistically that looks like a vaccine failure. It is not if it actually saved his life.
 
Thought it was interesting that Andy Marr reported his own condition on his programme this morning; he’d been double vaccinated but caught Covid, he believes when reporting the G7 in Cornwall, and its effects floored him last week, which in turn shattered his sense of having vaccine omnipotence.
 
Healdplace said:
By the way Andrrw Marr this moring revealed that despite being double jabbed some time ago he was off last week not for a break but because he had Covid.

He says he caught it when covering the global summit in Cornwall.

He also said it made him quite sick but he was not ill enough to go into hospital.

He got double jabbed early I assume due to his vulnerabilityafter his stroke.

So this is kind of good news. Especially as he was well enough to return to work after just afew days.

Suggests again the vaccines work in doing what they are supposed to do - even if statistically that looks like a vaccine failure. It is not if it actually saved his life.
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yep good news and it’s weird how it read like he thought getting double jabs thinking he won’t get it or can get it! Vaccine doesn’t prevent you getting it it prevents you going into hospital..
 
waspish said:
yep good news and it’s weird how it read like he thought getting double jabs thinking he won’t get it or can get it! Vaccine doesn’t prevent you getting it it prevents you going into hospital..
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I think what had surprised Marr was that the impact of getting it was clearly much more severe than he had anticipated. It may not have led to his hospitalization, but it had knocked him for six. Professor Horby agreed that the messaging could perhaps be clearer so that the vaccinated did not become complacent.
 
waspish said:
yep good news and it’s weird how it read like he thought getting double jabs thinking he won’t get it or can get it! Vaccine doesn’t prevent you getting it it prevents you going into hospital..
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Exactly - always has been. Covid is an endemic disease. We are not eradicating it any time soon if ever. Seems like flu you can get it repeatedly too.

So the BEST thing we can do is create ways to make it into a moderate at worst illness that leads to a few days at home off work not weeks in icu.

That is the reality I suspect many people still do not really understand. Vaccines are not magic, But they get sold as if they are to ensure most people take them as this is a horrible disease.

The vaccine data that matters as revealed from the current UK numbers is far and away the reason we are riding out what would be a tragic Summer wave like it was in India without them.

After one dose Pfizer has a 94% reduction NOT in you catching Covid but in preventing hospitalisation if you do. It only rises to 96% after both doses.

AZ is different - much lower (though still 71 %) after one dose - but not far behind up to 92% after both doses

These have resulted in an increasing fall off of hospital numbers as we jab more. We are not going to have thosands in hospital and on ventilators this time around it is starting to look safe to predict. And the mortality rate from Covid - which will never be zero at any age - has fallen a lot too. Even with a more virulent spreading version,

The reason is very simply that we got one thing right and bet on the vaccines in a bigger way than most countries did up front. And they paid off and are stopping a catastrophe unfolding right now.
 
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But whilst all that is true the overwheming message has to be that we MUST rapidly speed up vaccinations around the world - not just because it is the right thing to do - but becaue if we do not there is always a chance another variant less easily tamed will emerge and then we could all be back to square one.

There is too little being done and words are not going to cut it. Only action will now. And that is needed fast. The Summit was an opportunity missed but ended up, as uaual, with rich nations trying to look good by making promises then doing little to make them happen yesterday instead of some vague point in the future after the photo op was over.
 
Healdplace said:
By the way Andrew Marr on his show this morning revealed that despite being double jabbed some time ago he was off last week not for a break but because he had Covid.

He says he caught it when covering the global summit in Cornwall.

He also said it made him quite sick but he was not ill enough to go into hospital.

He got double jabbed early I assume due to his vulnerability after his stroke.

So this is kind of good news. Especially as he was well enough to return to work after just a few days.

Suggests again the vaccines work in doing what they are supposed to do - even if statistically that looks like a vaccine failure. It is not if it actually saved his life.
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Does that mean he's now more protected after 2 jabs and covid giving him more antibodies?
 
lancs blue said:
Those heatmap graphics are not a great way of presenting the data for anything other than a broad overview, as you pointed out the shade difference between bars is not very quantitative. The raw data for the different age groups in each LA doesn't appear to be accessible from that page.

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Yes. But very accessible. Even though it is difficult to derive the exact vax rates per age group, there's still enough data there to conclude that Manchester's low vax rate has got nothing to do with students. I could understand why people suggested that, but that data shows its not the cause.
 
Zoe App data

Predicted cases up 316 (500 or or so smaller rise than yesterday) up to 21, 758

Ongoing symptomatic cases up 6973 (1300 or so less than yesterday) to 274, 356



Scotland still the dark Maroon band but down a bit. Range 279 - 1541 Pop Scores.

North West still the only region in the next darkest red watch zone and has risen just a little. Ranging 444 - 859.

Two of the three regions in the band immediately below are rising

London up slightly to 290 / 564

Midlands little changed on 186 / 568

But South West has fallen slightly from 208 / 489 to 202 / 476

Every other England region is in the lowest light pink watch zone.

Only Northern Ireland is still white and no watch zone rating there.




In the North West Liverpool at 23, 533 down from 24, 060 leads the way in the UK now.
Wirral has now also gone maroon up to 7557.


In GM Manchester is down to secon\d though up to 13, 792 from 13, 445

Oldham now is top on 17, 251 - big rise on the day from 12, 655 after rising 2000 yesterday and so increasing a lot at the moment.

With Salford just these two in thirs on 12, 761 - down from 13, 611

Bolton still unexpectedly as high as fourth on 12 , 355 - a little down from 12, 968.


Other GM numbers :-

Bury up to 9553 from 8299

Trafford falls to 8821 from 9790

Tameside falls a lot to 5045 from 6934

But Wigan rises to 6101 from 6048

The two lowest in GM are

Stockport still down a liitle on 3500 from 3632

Bit still by far the best and only GM borough in the lowest tier watch zone is Rochdale up a little to 1640 from 1623

In Scotland Glasgow City on 20, 863 is vying with Liverpool for top scorers in UK. Though Scotland is a sea of dark red.

Has Nicola Sturgeon banned travel from Liverpool?

Both Cambridge and Oxford also spiking. No need for Morse to guess why.

London now encircked by maroon areas - with Islington now up over 10K on 10, 292

Birmimgham now up on 12, 414 - its highest in months. North West Leicestershire on 11, 065

I could fill the page as it is easier to look at the map now and say where Covid is not rising.

It is pretty much everywhere now.
 
splinter said:
Does that mean he's now more protected after 2 jabs and covid giving him more antibodies?
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I suppose it cannot have done any harm in that regard and maybe the dose of Covid acted like a third booster as he did say he had his second jab some weeks ago. Not recently.

And the plan is to give all the vulnerable a third booster this autumn. They are just working out the logistics such as should you gave Pfizer to those who had 2 AZ jabs and vice versa as they suspect the mixing could help given the differing ways they prime our resources against Covid.

They are running trials to test this now though a few weeks yet before results.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
I called this on here months ago.
Was shouted down.
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No idea why anyone would do that as it is surely obvious with a much faster spreading variant that once you let it in you are too late to stop it going everywhere.

NW and Scotland just got it first. The rest were bound to follow.

NW and Scotland likely have the first in / first out advantage.

The rest have had a few weeks to jab jab jab and hopefully minimise impact when it arrived.
 
Scotland data:

1 death - was 0 last week

2639 cases - was 1205 last week

8.9% positivity - was 5.8% last week

196 patients - down 1 on yesterday & up 46 on last week.

17 ventilated - down 1 on yesterday & up 4 on last week

They have still not resolved the lab data flow issue or know if it is impacting case numbers.
 
Northern Ireland data:

0 deaths - was 0 deaths

261 cases - was 125 last week


All we get on Sundays.

But cases now doubling week to week UK wide as was inevitable given this variant has been spreading in a relative lockdown free environment amongst the people mostly out and about enjoying the good weather.

You only have to look at the seaside towns that are growing to see how it got there. All four corners of the UK.

I assume this is a strategy of get the wave over before the Summer is out.
 
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So UK deaths today (weekend data so reduced reporting) are 2 from the 3 nations we know.

Last week it was 0 and ended up being 6 - all from England.

And UK cases with England to come are 3316.

Last week it was 1506 - so more than doubled in the week.

There were 7778 from England last week. Making the UK total 9284.


Yesterday England added 15, 186 so we can expect a similar number today. Which could push us near 19.000/20,000.
 
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I’ve been pinged by track and trace and told to isolate for 7 days. Is there any way to test yourself out to get early “release “ or is that only for people like Michael Gove?
 
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