Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BlueHammer85]

Early indications suggest most Omicron coronavirus cases are mild, an official at the World Health Organisation (WHO) has said.

An official, speaking on behalf of the organisation, said there is no evidence to suggest the efficacy of vaccines has been reduced by the new strain - but did say some mutations of the virus indicate an increased risk of quicker transmission.

 

[M18CTID]

Early indications suggest most Omicron coronavirus cases are mild, an official at the World Health Organisation (WHO) has said.

An official, speaking on behalf of the organisation, said there is no evidence to suggest the efficacy of vaccines has been reduced by the new strain - but did say some mutations of the virus indicate an increased risk of quicker transmission.

I know it's still early days but the number of stories emanating from prominent organisations suggesting this is surely encouraging. There was a suspicion on here the other day that SA were only saying it because they were miffed about going on the red list but since then many other sources independent of SA have been stating something similar.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Early indications suggest most Omicron coronavirus cases are mild, an official at the World Health Organisation (WHO) has said.

An official, speaking on behalf of the organisation, said there is no evidence to suggest the efficacy of vaccines has been reduced by the new strain - but did say some mutations of the virus indicate an increased risk of quicker transmission.

The Israeli government are saying similar things. Surely someone from the WHO wouldn't come out and say something like that if they didn't have some good evidence to back it up.

I'm hopeful...

 

[Manc in London]

Why do you want AZ, if you don’t mind me asking?

No worries with you asking.

There is greater risk of getting Bell's Palsy again (19 days in and I still cannot close my right eye) with an mRNA vaccine. Apparently three times higher with an mRNA magazine according to a report on the Lancet. I don't want another period of this thing.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Very informative, but very, very long twitter thread on omicron from an immunologist.

Includes snippets such as the theory that the variant resulted from reverse zoonosis - that it was transmitted to an animal species, then evolved and was transmitted back to humans.



Short version: Much uncertainty, too early to say how significant it will be.

 

[BlueAnorak]

There's a lot of nationalism regarding vaccines in Germany too. Lots of people are refusing Moderna as they only will accept German manufactured Biontec (which is how Pfizer is referred to there).

A colleague of mine who lives in Dresden says his wife's hospital (she's a nurse) is overwhelmed with unvaccinated patients (only 55% fully vaccinated in Saxony). Germany has been very slow off the mark with boosters too.

Most if those who are vaccinated who are dying are not in hospital. They die at home or in a care home with Covid on top of their other life limiting conditions.
I really don't know why this is not advertised by the government as it would encourage some refusnicks to get jabbed.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Has anyone had three vaccinations of the same vaccine?

Also, any data on the efficacy of having the same vaccine three times?

I ask as I had a double dose of AZ but I also want an AZ booster for medical reasons.

Yep - 3 Pfizer
1st - Aches and pains everywhere.
2nd - Cold like stuffed up feeling.
3rd - No symptoms whatsoever.

Flu Jab (last weekend) weeping facial sores around some hair folicals and itchiness

 

[denislawsbackheel]

I am 48. Good to see I have not given others the impression I am an oldie.

I currently have Bell's Palsy. Not sure what caused it. Looking at possible causes it is most likely either Covid (my sense of smell and taste were not great for a week or so before my face started to resemble Quasimodo's) or my immune system was in overdrive (had the flu jab two weeks earlier and I take high dose Vit D and Zinc, and had both Covid jabs).

Looking at the Lancet, a report recommends considering not taking mRNA vaccines if you have had Bell's Palsy as the risk of getting it again following an mRNA vaccination is three times more likely. I then looked at the NHS website and it said some people can have three jabs of the same vaccine if it is considered the best option for that person.

I would think vaccination centres will have all three vaccinations (AZ, Pfizer and Moderna). No idea how I can ensure I get AZ or avoid a long winded discussion at the vaccination centre and then walking out with no jab. Would ask my doc but it takes three weeks to get a telephone appointment.

My next door neighbour, 84, had to drive for an hour to get an AZ booster.

 

[lancs blue]

I would think vaccination centres will have all three vaccinations (AZ, Pfizer and Moderna).

Not when I went for my booster last week, I'd had two Pfizer and would have been happy with a third but there was a big notice up in the centre "Today's vaccine is Moderna" and that was that, no alternative. No side effects though, just like the Pfizer.

 

[daveiw01]

Very informative, but very, very long twitter thread on omicron from an immunologist.

Includes snippets such as the theory that the variant resulted from reverse zoonosis - that it was transmitted to an animal species, then evolved and was transmitted back to humans.



Short version: Much uncertainty, too early to say how significant it will be.

Thank you, much appreciated.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Most if those who are vaccinated who are dying are not in hospital. They die at home or in a care home with Covid on top of their other life limiting conditions.

Interesting - is there any data available on this?

 

[grunge]

The Israeli government are saying similar things. Surely someone from the WHO wouldn't come out and say something like that if they didn't have some good evidence to back it up.

I'm hopeful...

Depends who said it. One of the scientists of the political 'wing'. the scientists were praising quick action on travel etc while the day after the head was critising countries for the travel ban as it punished SA.

Anyone got a link to it? just curios who said it.

While Im hopefull with all these outlets saying stuff there are still reports of ICU's being filled up in some areas of SA and a 300% increase in hospital admissions in a week so im gonna hold off on any excitement.

 

[True_Blue69]

Depends who said it. One of the scientists of the political 'wing'. the scientists were praising quick action on travel etc while the day after the head was critising countries for the travel ban as it punished SA.

Anyone got a link to it? just curios who said it.

While Im hopefull with all these outlets saying stuff there are still reports of ICU's being filled up in some areas of SA and a 300% increase in hospital admissions in a week so im gonna hold off on any excitement.

Hadn’t they had barely any cases for weeks? It’s easy to make stats sounds bad if you’re talking low numbers. If they went from 1 person to 3, then it’s not really a worry. If they have gone from 1,000 to 3,000 then it’s a bit different. What were the numbers not the percentage? Also, barely anyone is vaccinated over there.

 

[Healdplace]

Interesting - is there any data available on this?

Well the England hospital deaths every day are by far the largest of the deaths officially reported for England which is hard to fit if the numbers were large.

There were 102 hospital deaths in England today. Look later to see how many died outside of hospital. It will be nowhere near that number. It is running typically around 20/25 or so a day.

So even if true it will be from a much smaller number.

This does not seem very different from the split last year pre vaccines.

But it would probably be good that very sick elderly people are allowed to die where they are rather than needlessly be taken to hospital.Perhaps many of these are recorded as deaths by other causes now?

 

[grunge]

Hadn’t they had barely any cases for weeks? It’s easy to make stats sounds bad if you’re talking low numbers. If they went from 1 person to 3, then it’s not really a worry. If they have gone from 1,000 to 3,000 then it’s a bit different. What were the numbers not the percentage? Also, barely anyone is vaccinated over there.

Just checking and the numbers have been revised upwards. for the province of Gauteng which was the main area hit with Omicron. Its also the highest vaccinated area in SA ( still very low in comparison to western standards ) as well as being hit by large waves in the past year so had a good natural immunity level too, its believed they were as close to herd immunity ( Dr Campbell video mentioned about it yesterday, same video mentioned an ICU Doctor saying they are getting a large influx of 20/30 year olds ) as you can get with Delta hence the low levels for a while before this kicked off

hospital admissions.
Week 45 = 141
Week 46 = 286
Week 47 = 674

When the 300% comment was 1st banded about the week 47 figure was at about 450. So its actually closer to 450/500% increase.

Its from there disease monitoring site, so no filter of opinion, just data.

DAILY HOSPITAL SURVEILLANCE (DATCOV) REPORT - NICD

DAILY HOSPITAL SURVEILLANCE (DATCOV) REPORT DAILY HOSPITAL SURVEILLANCE (DATCOV) REPORT (Jul-Dec 2022) NICD COVID-19 SURVEILLANCE IN SELECTED HOSPITALS (2 Sep 2022) NICD COVID-19 SURVEILLANCE IN SELECTED HOSPITALS (1 Sep 2022) NICD COVID-19 SURVEILLANCE IN SELECTED HOSPITALS (31 Aug 2022) NICD...

www.nicd.ac.za

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Just checking and the numbers have been revised upwards. for the province of Gauteng which was the main area hit with Omicron. Its also the highest vaccinated area in SA ( still very low in comparison to western standards ) as well as being hit by large waves in the past year so had a good natural immunity level too, its believed they were as close to herd immunity ( Dr Campbell video mentioned about it yesterday, same video mentioned an ICU Doctor saying they are getting a large influx of 20/30 year olds ) as you can get with Delta hence the low levels for a while before this kicked off

hospital admissions.
Week 45 = 141
Week 46 = 286
Week 47 = 674

When the 300% comment was 1st banded about the week 47 figure was at about 450. So its actually closer to 450/500% increase.

Its from there disease monitoring site, so no filter of opinion, just data.

DAILY HOSPITAL SURVEILLANCE (DATCOV) REPORT - NICD

DAILY HOSPITAL SURVEILLANCE (DATCOV) REPORT DAILY HOSPITAL SURVEILLANCE (DATCOV) REPORT (Jul-Dec 2022) NICD COVID-19 SURVEILLANCE IN SELECTED HOSPITALS (2 Sep 2022) NICD COVID-19 SURVEILLANCE IN SELECTED HOSPITALS (1 Sep 2022) NICD COVID-19 SURVEILLANCE IN SELECTED HOSPITALS (31 Aug 2022) NICD...

www.nicd.ac.za

~weekly doubling, which is about the same case cases I think.

i.e naively suggests similar severity to delta, but with huge uncertainty and caveats.

 

[grunge]

~weekly doubling, which is about the same case cases I think.

i.e naively suggests similar severity to delta, but with huge uncertainty and caveats.

That pretty much matches what the FT said too. cases seemed to be rising faster but hospitalisations matching Delta. does suggest its slightly less dangerous to the individuals, but could still overwhelm medical systems but as you say, too early to draw solid conclusions either way.

Edit: Looks like Cases are doubling faster than weekly.

16th Nov = 273
24th Nov = 1275 ( 23rd Nov = No Data )
30th Nov = 4373

But again, 3 weekly points isn't really enough to know for sure, that mixed with laggy data its not wholly reliable yet.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Interesting - is there any data available on this?

I've been looking for it. Sadly no.
This is from the front line. My daughter a Geriatrician Consultant and two friends who work in Care in the Community.
90%+ deaths in hospital are definately non vaccinated

 

[Healdplace]

I've been looking for it. Sadly no.
This is from the front line. My daughter a Geriatrician Consultant and two friends who work in Care in the Community.
90%+ deaths in hospital are definately non vaccinated

That deaths in England hospitals have fallen in number week to week for the past month going into mid winter as cases 30 - 40,000 a day come in and as boosters go into arms shoving the numbers over 60 being part of that split of cases down is clearly why.

In Northern Ireland today only 100 people aged over 80 out of 11,517 in the past weeks total tested positive. And just 834 over 60.

There were 4637 under 20 and 7623 under 40 for comparison.

The boosters are very clearly reducing hospital numbers and deaths from similar case numbers because the age split of those cases has been changed by the vaccination programme.

That 100 by the way was over 200 a week or two ago from similar total numbers so the percentage has dropped as boosters went into arms.

 

[KS55]

Two weeks ago, there were three walk in clinics accessible to me offering booster jabs. They have just shut two of them. WTF?