Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Our employer (central government department) has been tasked with finding volunteers from the staff to help deliver the booster over the next month. I've volunteered but will have to wait to see if I am picked. They can't let us all do it as we are customer facing and open until Christmas Eve.
 
Bluewonder said:
I posted about the assessment of excess death by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries yesterday and find it interesting that their latest pandemic summary indicates no more than ~5k of excess deaths in the England and Wales since week 5 2021.

Mortality monitor | Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

The CMI publishes regular analyses of mortality in England & Wales:
www.actuaries.org.uk www.actuaries.org.uk

Not indicative of a UK pandemic, really.
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these guys are clearly talking bollocks. Sorry but they are. Going by the ONS data we have had 48595 excess deaths in 2021.
 
grunge said:
these guys are clearly talking bollocks. Sorry but they are. Going by the ONS data we have had 48595 excess deaths in 2021.
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The vast majority of excess deaths were pre-week 5 (total 2021 excess mortality per the IFA is 35k)

ONS just compared to average from 2015-2019 whereas IFA is adjusting for changes in demographics.

By the way, actuaries know a thing or two about death rates!
 
KnaresboroughBlue said:
Case count isn't really that important. It's those needing hospital treatment and deaths that are the important figures now IMO.
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Especially when you’re doing 1.3 million and more tests a day. Every day over the last 3 weeks the % rise in cases has been smaller than the % rise in tests. Positivity staying about the same. If it’s still the same next Tuesday they will be able to row back plan b.
Also, had 5 live on driving up for the game and they announced, with no context whatsoever that “150 people have died of Covid in the last 24 hours”. It’s no wonder people are scared witless when the standard of journalism is as piss poor as it is at the minute!
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Also, had 5 live on driving up for the game and they announced, with no context whatsoever that “150 people have died of Covid in the last 24 hours”. It’s no wonder people are scared witless when the standard of journalism is as piss poor as it is at the minute!
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I prefer the phrasing of the South African information in my post #44,204 above: "Covid-19 related deaths".
That appears to be a more balanced way of reporting it.
 
marcus said:
Its horrible mate. She has
dementia but fully understands being locked up. She degenerated quickly being locked away and blossomed when she was allowed out with us all
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I
marcus said:
My nanna who is 92 and in a home has just received the news that therell be no visitors and no days out to visit family til after xmas at least

Thats approx 14 months out the last 19 shes been a prisoner

fuckin barbaric

if you agree with that tten youre a weirdo
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Marcus, do you know if this is across the board with care homes or it's just the policy your nanna's one has introduced?
I was planning on seeing my mum between Christmas and New Year but thought I'd telephone and ask the home nearer the time.
 
Gabriel said:
I prefer the phrasing of the South African information in my post #44,204 above: "Covid-19 related deaths".
That appears to be a more balanced way of reporting it.
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I agree but my main point was that Tuesday is always a big number because of the ‘weekend effect’, and the fact they still don’t seem to know that is either deliberate or incompetent. Neither are good enough though.
 
Bluewonder said:
The vast majority of excess deaths were pre-week 5 (total 2021 excess mortality per the IFA is 35k)

ONS just compared to average from 2015-2019 whereas IFA is adjusting for changes in demographics.

By the way, actuaries know a thing or two about death rates!
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why would actuaries know a thing or 2 about death rates? They are basically risk assessing accountants.

this group tho as you say are selectively ignoring data they don’t want to include and changing the way excess deaths are calculated by the ONS to prove a point they wanted to make. Aka talking bollocks.

I’ll go with the ONS on this one.
 
All countries off the red list, anyone in a quarantine hotel allowed to leave.

My guess is they know now this mutation is nowhere near as serious and with boosters in arms and antivirals being brought on tap we are in a much better place than feared.
 
blueinsa said:
All countries off the red list, anyone in a quarantine hotel allowed to leave.

My guess is they know now this mutation is nowhere near as serious and with boosters in arms and antivirals being brought on tap we are in a much better place than feared.
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zero point in keeping the red list to slow down a variant that is already dominant or will be very soon.
 
Bluewonder said:
The vast majority of excess deaths were pre-week 5 (total 2021 excess mortality per the IFA is 35k)

ONS just compared to average from 2015-2019 whereas IFA is adjusting for changes in demographics.

By the way, actuaries know a thing or two about death rates!
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They ought to.

I mean tho, 5k is what, 200 a week? Three times the annual deaths on the road in six months. Quite a lot - given we lost so many eldery and ill people in the 18 months prior. I've heard quite a lot of people say that there will be drop in excess deaths after COVID due to this fact. Obviously nowhere near that point yet.

Anyway it has little to do with the official usage of the term 'Pandemic'. They're going to call it that because it is a recognised term in science and sociology. It's a very prevalent disease that remains significant in all manner of ways. The numbers you quote pretty much back that up. If they called it something else they'd have to change a few other definitions. Daft hill to die on, kid.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Another unreferenced assertion.

And it's near impossible for two points to affect a steady trend in that way, and the trend has actually changed in the opposite way to which you've said (case growth has reduced, not increased)

I literally posted a tutorial by a professor on how to calculate trends and the UKHSA assessment of the trend.

You *claim* to me a statistical modeller of some sort IIRC?
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Look at the charts/tables of Omicron cases over the last two and a half weeks. It's not difficult.
 
grunge said:
zero point in keeping the red list to slow down a variant that is already dominant or will be very soon.
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Exactly this.

Read numerous articles and pieces when the red list recently returned after omicron reared its head; every single one said that the return of hotel quarantine for arrivals from certain African countries was utterly pointless and an exercise in futility.

Once you realise you may have a problem, it's already way way too late.

And these were comments by various experts in their relative field, and not travel or aviation industry people (who would likely have an ulterior motive or invested interest)
 
grunge said:
zero point in keeping the red list to slow down a variant that is already dominant or will be very soon.
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Phew……..for a moment there I thought it might have been because of some good news re Omicron.

Im being sarcastic. It is good news and I believe it’s because of the data now coming through re Omicron.
 
Summerbuzz said:
They ought to.

I mean tho, 5k is what, 200 a week? Three times the annual deaths on the road in six months. Quite a lot - given we lost so many eldery and ill people in the 18 months prior. I've heard quite a lot of people say that there will be drop in excess deaths after COVID due to this fact. Obviously nowhere near that point yet.

Anyway it has little to do with the official usage of the term 'Pandemic'. They're going to call it that because it is a recognised term in science and sociology. It's a very prevalent disease that remains significant in all manner of ways. The numbers you quote pretty much back that up. If they called it something else they'd have to change a few other definitions. Daft hill to die on, kid.
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From March last year till November this year England and Wales been 129 k excess deaths so I’d say 131k whole uk
 
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