Coronavirus (2021) thread

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roubaixtuesday said:
SA population 60 million, so not dissimilar to ours.

Big numbers compared to current uk, but again, like hospitalizations, impossible (for me at least) to translate to any kind of UK projection given the different demographics, vaccination and prior infection in the population.
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Their previous waves behaved very similarly to ours. Big surge of cases, then deaths followed about twice per year since early 2020… but this time the cases have surged but not the deaths to follow yet and they should be here by now.
 
Marvin said:
Good. I am glad you regard this as good news too. it seems we are all on the same page then. Watch the London hospitalisation data. That is our early warning system. We're all in agreement as to what the current data says. 301 admissions as per 20th Dec and rising but not alarmingly so.

I'm also interested to know when the cases will peak in London. it's not just the daily admissions that count but also how severe they are, and for how long they persist.
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Estimated new admissions to hospital is 227 meaning 74 of the 301 overall London admissions are incidental.
 
Early data from South Africa suggests the Omicron variant could be milder than Delta.

In a study conducted by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), Omicron patients were found to have an 80% lower risk of hospital admission.

For those in hospital, the risk of severe disease appeared to be 30% lower.

The study has not yet been peer-reviewed and the authors have warned people against jumping to conclusions.

It compared South African data on Omicron from October and November with data about Delta between April and November.

"In South Africa, this is the epidemiology: Omicron is behaving in a way that is less severe," said Professor Cheryl Cohen of the NICD, one of the authors.

"Compellingly, together our data really suggest a positive story of a reduced severity of Omicron compared to other variants."
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
It’s their Summer in South Africa and people will be getting more Vitamin D from the Sun, as well as people being out and about more and even indoors people ventilate their homes and workplaces much more (which is why we have a fewer lung illnesses in the Summer).

There are 80% more lung illness hospital admissions in the Winter

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If we can show data that has low hospitalisations with this Omicron variant even here in our Winter, we’ll be onto a flyer.
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Which is why 75% of Flu cases occur in the UK Dec, Jan, Feb and Mar.
But this surfe doesn't seen to be present for Covid in anything like the the same magnitude as it is for Flu which is bad throughout the year. Possibly its down to viral load in cooler indoor spaces and the fact that in previous variants these struck all lung areas at the same time.
Omicron seems to target Upper Respititary Tract more than previous variants (like colds and flu) so maybe it will be worse in winter. We shall see as the data becomes apparent.
 
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Psychedelic Casual said:
It’s their Summer in South Africa and people will be getting more Vitamin D from the Sun, as well as people being out and about more and even indoors people ventilate their homes and workplaces much more (which is why we have a fewer lung illnesses in the Summer).

There are 80% more lung illness hospital admissions in the Winter

View attachment 32478


If we can show data that has low hospitalisations with this Omicron variant even here in our Winter, we’ll be onto a flyer.
Click to expand...
Which is why 75% of Flu cases occur in the UK Dec, Jan, Feb and Mar.
But this rise doesn't seen to be present for Covid in anything like the the same magnitude which is bad throughout the year. Possibly its down to viral load in cooler indoor spaces
 
Marvin said:
Where is the London surge in hospitalisations. They are coming in in tens not hundreds. We are yet to really see the explosive growth in London infection hit the hsopitals but we're close to that point. See London infection rate for that. I think it was the 12th Dec when gov.uk specimen date shoots up. 8 days on from then in the data where is the surge? We're seeing an uplift but nothing dramatic in my eyes. Perhaps too soon but London hospitalisation data is compeltely key. Hoepfully BBC 10 O'clock news will have some in depth analysis on this but I doubt it. This is the red flag in my book. It either waves or it doesn't. It isn't waving at the moment.
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We are seeing it start to increase but amicdotal evidence suggests people are being admitted for other problems and are then found to be Omicron +ve.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Not enough to keep max admissions a day below 3000 unless hospitalisatons include people who just happened to test +ve and were admitted for something else.
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Implies very bad but not catastrophic at face value? But FFS, where's the actual study? I hate this sort of headline without a link as they've normally mangled the true implications.
 
Had a very faint line on one of my 3 lateral flows yesterday (the first one) so went for a PCR as I was due to go back to Manchester for Christmas so wanted to make sure I didn't infect any one. Done two other lateral flows today that are both negative but PCR has just come back as positive. No symptoms whatsoever.

Think I had come into contact with some one around 10 days ago with COVID so potentially this could be the back end of me being contagious/carrying it.

Obviously the right thing to do is isolate for Xmas but what a shitter. My 9 year olds last Christmas before he realises Father Christmas is me, to compound things, all of his presents are already at my family's up north wrapped!
 
BlueHammer85 said:
I think it's looking pretty conclusive now on that front, great news.
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All the evidence coming out of South Africa which was ahead of us was pointing to this, but posturing full of their own power and importance leaders like Sturgeon and Drakeford, couldn't wait to jump on their podiums and impose sanctions on their people.

The same is happening in Spain who are rushing through powers to reintroduced mask wearing...... outdoors! In a country with a great climate and sea breeze in many areas this is their "Seen to be doing something" brainwave. Utter cunts.
 
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