Russian invasion of Ukraine

domalino said:
I'm far from an expert but I actually think this is going to be bad for crypto.

The refusal of major platforms to help enforce sanctions when asked by Western governments is unlikely to go without some sort of response or reprisal and is likely to kick talks of regulation and monitoring into overdrive in every country that's sanctioning Russia.

This war has shown that global sanctions are the world's biggest weapon and anything that represents a bypass of those will be cracked down on.
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i think it could be bad for independent crypto, if indeed regulation goes into overdrive when the power of sanctioning those you dont like diminishes (as you say), but it will become increasingly difficult to monitor crypto transactions through time as well. It's a fair point. Plus a broad enough centralised crypto with many signed up partners (e.g. China, Russia,parts of Africa, Brazil, India) will not care about sanctions outwith.

(if anyone wants a conspiracy tangent over a coffee: crypto may become one of the biggest societal controls around if government have the ability to control your spending and your access to money if you're not seen to be behaving as a citizen. China are trying this out. As i say, just conspiracy stuff for now)
 
Gabriel said:
Russia probably wants to shore up its European flank now because it realizes the next fifty years will see it facing two increasingly powerful entities to its south and east. Europe has not been an aggressive threat, to date, though the attack on Ukraine will certainly accelerate EU membership. If Ukraine becomes another Afghanistan for Russia, however, it will look increasingly weak to those other entities and perhaps also make them more cautious about how they proceed.
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you may have a point but the way i see it is that the EU was not a threat to them, if NATO was never going to attack, it didnt really need to 'shore up' while sorting out the east, as you put it. More likely they sorted out the east in principle to then gain some long wished territories of geopolitical significance (to them) and cultural significance (to them), sorting two things out in one go with a turned head from the eastern partner.
 
BobKowalski said:
Perhaps. But Russians were queuing to get their roubles changed into dollars when it began to kick off, and the gold price went up. People want security for their money. Dollars and gold are proven safe bets. A crypto currency or a currency backed by Russia and/or China? You going to trust your life savings with them?
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i'm not. But millions (billions?) of chinese, russians and maybe indians either will or have no choice if currency reserves are phased out in favour of centrliased crypto. you're every day russian at the moment only owns roubles with a back up of dollars, which is old school Cold War methods. the world is changing.
 
shemnel said:
Away from the actual conflict, i think this is the flash point for a new separated geopolitical landscape that will rival the Cold War. Russia began to 'de-dollarize' about ten years ago (reduce it's reliance on the dollar as a global reserve) which is entirely their choice, but it means there must be other willing partners to make this sustainable. China is the obvious and it seems India may or may not go along with it? SA and Brazil are interesting. So, will we slip towards a global system in which the dollar truly has an economic rival?
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Does this mean we can stop sending money to India because of their destitute and needy people.... whilst their government prioritises space exploration? I do hope so.
 
Gabriel said:
Russia probably wants to shore up its European flank now because it realizes the next fifty years will see it facing two increasingly powerful entities to its south and east. Europe has not been an aggressive threat, to date, though the attack on Ukraine will certainly accelerate EU membership. If Ukraine becomes another Afghanistan for Russia, however, it will look increasingly weak to those other entities and perhaps also make them more cautious about how they proceed.
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The thing with this is I don't understand how Russia sees Europe as a military threat. We have indeed seen expansion of NATO to the east but that is because of Russia and otherwise NATO is not a threat to Russia. This fact has been demonstrated more than clearly over the last 10 years. No NATO action has led to the offensive invasion of another country whereas Russia has occupied and invaded several.

I don't know if Putins obsession with NATO is delusion but it's probably more due to his frame of geopolitics and certainly it must represent an ambition of Putin to reform the USSR or to re-establish empires and that kind of thing. He cannot achieve these goals if countries like Ukraine join NATO because what he's doing over there becomes militarily impossible.

The really sad thing is Russia is a relatively modern country and Russians are quite westernised so do they want war with the west? Do they hell. What's happening and why Russia is doing what it's doing is entirely a fabrication of one man and his pals.

The thing I worry about is what do these people really think is happening in the world and could it be true that they even believe their own propaganda? If so then anything could happen and this really does echo how Hitler took Nazi Germany to war.
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
For precisely that reason...
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Central governments will undoubtedly push much hard against it for precisely these reasons.

Personally (and this isn’t investment advice) against this backdrop I wouldn’t be long Bitcoin, if anything I would go long vol right now - assuming some value (eg buy call option and sell futures, at least two years forward, keep position delta flat - If you can’t trade a vol index) then when the position becomes clear short vol because it’ll go one way or the other - vol increases with chop, decreases with direction. One final note on anyone planning on trading vol….whatever your profit is on paper, to liquidate it’ll cost you anything up to 50% of it - accept it and move on, don’t chase better because you’ll never find it.
 
I wonder how the Americans would feel if in an alternate World the Russians had been slowly admitting the South and Central American countries into the Warsaw pact and were now trying to add Mexico as the final piece in the jigsaw.
 
BigJoe#1 said:
Anyone else as infuriated as me that the Olympic committee has approved that the Russian and Belarus Paralympic teams are allowed to take part?

WE MUST ALL BE TOUGHER AND TOTALLY EXCLUDE EVERYTHING RUSSIAN (AND BELLARUSSIAN) FROM EVERY WORLD COMMUNITY EVENT!!
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Banned now, I’m sure they’ll be disappointed as the competition for places in the Russian team will be much higher next time
 
GAZZA said:
I wonder how the Americans would feel if in an alternate World the Russians had been slowly admitting the South and Central American countries into the Warsaw pact and were now trying to add Mexico as the final piece in the jigsaw.
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yeah.....bomb Mexico and kill thousands.....just in case
 
GAZZA said:
I wonder how the Americans would feel if in an alternate World the Russians had been slowly admitting the South and Central American countries into the Warsaw pact and were now trying to add Mexico as the final piece in the jigsaw.
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I can't believe I'm saying this but after the last week, I'm wondering whether Putin thinks there's a Finland-shaped jigsaw piece that he can easily add: not in NATO, population of 5.5M and shares a border. And then Sweden.

I mean, it sounds mad when I write it, but he is mad after all. These comments about stop him now or the price goes up seem very real to me.
 
Why do you think we have not really touched the oligarch's wealth yet? Why have we given them an 18-month window to get the hell out of dodge with their dirty Russian money?

Boris Johnson is saying we are leading the way in sanctions (world-beating anyone?) and basking in the applause of the client journalists when in fact it is our European partners who are seizing assets.
 
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