FA Cup Quarter-Final Draw | Burnley (H)

[WestGorton]

Looks like we'll be beating United in the final on the way to our treble.

Good post!

 

[SebastianBlue]

Tell you what. Quite happy to do a charity bet with you witnessed by an independent bluemooner.
You hit red or black 10 times on the bounce, I'll pay £500 to your chosen charity, you don't you pay £500 to mine.
Deal?

Where and when? ;-)

 

[argyle]

The issue is the draw is not even as close to random as flipping a coin (which is also not actually random), hence why aggregate expected value probabilities come in to play, which is beyond pure discrete event probability.

It’s the basis of many areas of science (statistical confidence/significance) and actuarial computation, among other things.

I tend to mention this in the pub before every cup draw.

 

[It'sBlue93:20]

We are in a very good position for this FA Cup. United the only ‘big club’ left in.

Brighton should be a lock for the semis.

 

[domalino]

The issue is the draw is not even as close to random as flipping a coin (which is also not actually random), hence why aggregate expected value probabilities come in to play, which is beyond pure discrete event probability.

It’s the basis of many areas of science (statistical confidence/significance) and actuarial computation, among other things.

They've had 30 cup draws in the last 5 seasons and have got 18 home 12 away. Not including being the "home" team at neutral venues.

So they're 3 off dead centre. Well within any margin of error or standard deviation.

 

[Legal Alien]

This will be a great day!

Vinnie coming home, seeing his statue and bringing a Burnley team that, for as long as i can remember, will give us a good game.

 

[SebastianBlue]

I tend to mention this in the pub before every cup draw.

Always gets a great cheer from the lads around my local.

 

[Zin 'messiah' Zimmer]

Where and when? ;-)

Canal street, cruise@22:00 tomorrow, he’s pm’d @gordondaviesmoustache to be the adjudicator (:

 

[burning blue soul]

I've had a word, and Wembley have agreed to hold 'The Great Man City Toss Off' on the Saturday evening before the Semi.
Warm coins are in play.

 

[dronefromsector7G]

The issue is the draw is not even as close to random as flipping a coin (which is also not actually random), hence why aggregate expected value probabilities come in to play, which is beyond pure discrete event probability.

It’s the basis of many areas of science (statistical confidence/significance) and actuarial computation, among other things.

I bet you’re fun at parties

 

[AliBobbyJ]

We've avoided the tie I wanted least in the 6th round, Sheff Utd away, getting kicked to bits in front of a raucous Yorksheer crowd. Rags in the semi and Blackburn in the final will do me now.

If it's to be a City v. rags final, though, I would risk having to deal with the possibility of getting cheated out of it for the sheer elation of humiliating them before a global audience. That's one that will echo down the ages, I'll happily take that to the old folks home in my rocker, and off it too.

 

[SebastianBlue]

They've had 30 cup draws in the last 5 seasons and have got 18 home 12 away.

So they're 3 off dead centre.

I wasn’t arguing whether it was or wasn’t aberrational, I was explaining the difference between what he was describing (pure discrete event probability) and what the other person was describing (aggregate expected value probability).

Though, I think in the case of the argument, like many in time-restricted data analytics, recency is king, and trend is where the insights are largely found.

That’s a round about way of saying recent outcomes could be aberrational even if historical outcomes do not seem so.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Canal street, cruise@22:00 tomorrow, he’s pm’d @gordondaviesmoustache to be the adjudicator (:

I’ll be there! ;-)

 

[Withnail]

Great draw, should be a belting game. Forget about the Rags need to beat Burnley first.

 

[SebastianBlue]

I bet you’re fun at parties

I’ll take that bet, as well.

 

[Bluekiwi]

Fantastic draw. Will be a fantastic occasion and a great match

Rags got the 2nd best team they could have done so not sure why people have a problem with it

It would have been better if they had been drawn away for a change this season.

 

[Pam]

Have the Rags had an away draw at all

Fucking no. No more than they did during their League Cup run, which was a farce from start to end.. Bent twqts. Meanwhile we've been getting Arsenal and Chelsea ,(twice). Fuck off.

 

[Stephen230]

I'll take that bet

10 times in a row you get red or black- the only other outcome is an edge and that's not going to happen.

When do we do the observed bet?

Zero.

Depending where in the world you are, possibly also double zero.

 

[Rascal]

Vinny will want to beat us badly, he is a winner. For him its the ideal game to show how he has progressed as a manager. I have no doubt he loves City but turning us over will cost him no sleep.

I hope we welcome him home before the game as a returning hero as he deserves it, but once the game starts that must stop, he is the enemy. After the game we can acclaim him win or lose.

Burnley are a very good side, it will be no walkover, hope Pep plays the best eleven he can and beat the fuckers.

We will still love Vinny come what may.

 

[Tangled up in blue.]

We can't let the fucking SCUM win 2cups