FA Cup Quarter-Final Draw | Burnley (H)

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Wonder if Burnley are bringing their plane with them this time?

I think people are over estimating them anyway. Of course Kompany is doing a fantastic job. And of course if we’re not at it, an upset is a possibility.

But I’ve seen them a few times and I wouldn’t be overly worried, as long as we don’t take them lightly.

You see teams coming up with 100+ points and are still relegation fodder in the Prem.
 
Stephen230 said:
Wonder if Burnley are bringing their plane with them this time?

I think people are over estimating them anyway. Of course Kompany is doing a fantastic job. And of course if we’re not at it, an upset is a possibility.

But I’ve seen them a few times and I wouldn’t be overly worried, as long as we don’t take them lightly.

You see teams coming up with 100+ points and are still relegation fodder in the Prem.
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Be straight back down for them, don't like Burnley If I'm honest and kompany being there won't change that.
 
Stephen230 said:
Wonder if Burnley are bringing their plane with them this time?

I think people are over estimating them anyway. Of course Kompany is doing a fantastic job. And of course if we’re not at it, an upset is a possibility.

But I’ve seen them a few times and I wouldn’t be overly worried, as long as we don’t take them lightly.

You see teams coming up with 100+ points and are still relegation fodder in the Prem.
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Agreed.
Last season Fulham came to the Etihad in the cup when they were absolutely flying at the top of the Championship and some people were fearing a possible upset. They took an early lead but we ran out comfortable winners and (other than the first five minutes) it was a relatively stress-free afternoon.
 
woody1968 said:
Absolutely correct-the outcome of a series of coin tosses is classed as mutually exclusive as each toss has a 50/50 chance of being H or T and one toss does not effect in any way the outcome of the next toss and therefore any combination of either H or T has exactly the same odds
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Derren Brown did a programme a few years back where he was shown getting 10 heads in a row, straight off in one sequence. It was later revealed that the 'trick' was they filmed that same sequence again and again for several hours straight until he finally got the 10 heads in a row. Statistics in action!
 
I just hope the club price this right. I'm not in the Cup scheme because of work/midweek commitments. I've been a season ticket holder for most of my life so no jcl. I'll pay up to 40 for me and 20 for my daughter. Anything more is too much in my eyes.
 
SebastianBlue said:
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Prior to last nights draw, their sequence of home games had odds of 66-1. Nothing to see here, move along.
 
blueste41 said:
Well a mathematician (I happen to be one) would say your talking bollocks ;)
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I happen to be a mathematician (and data scientist), too, so can say with full confidence of nearly two decades in my field that I am not “talking bollocks”. ;-)

This is basic statistical analysis taught at uni.

Edit: I will say, the gap in most people’s understanding of how probability (and statistics more generally) work, especially with larger datasets—partly due to poor education and partly due to the human mind not actually being very good at it to begin with—is heavily exploited in modern times and is one of the most overlooked dangers to a reasonably functioning society in the age of ever-quickening technological progress.

To sum up my previous posts:

1) discrete event probability (flipping a coin once) and aggregate expected value probability (flipping a coin hundreds of times) are two different things

2) the cup draw is far from ‘random’; as is actually flipping a coin

3) in most time-period based data analytics recency and trend are where insights are found

4) I make no qualitative judgement of United’s home draw run, only state that it could reasonably be described as aberrational
 
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Rags semi, Bernardo with a screamer
Brighton in the final.

Put a nice stripey scalf round Pep’s neck and a baseball cap on De Zerbi’s head. Pukka
 
The Lightbowne Cowboy said:
I just hope the club price this right. I'm not in the Cup scheme because of work/midweek commitments. I've been a season ticket holder for most of my life so no jcl. I'll pay up to 40 for me and 20 for my daughter. Anything more is too much in my eyes.
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I'd be surprised if tickets are priced higher than that. Maybe the ones in level 2 will be but I can't imagine the NS or SS being higher than that. I could be wrong though as demand for tickets for our home games is higher than I can ever remember
 
blueste41 said:
It's not, as each draw is a separate event they have exactly an even chance of being drawn at home each time. If a roulette ball had landed on red 9 consecutive times do you think the odds of it happening on the next roll would be higher than normal?
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The odds of that same event happening nine times in a row adds up though

You’re not predicting a single event nine consecutive times, you’re predicting nine consecutive events
 
blueste41 said:
Go on then share your formula/theory for concluding that....
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There are 252 different combinations of (different ways of gettings) 5H and 5T ------> 10!/((5!)(5!)) = 252

There is only 1 combination of (way of getting) 10H (or 10T whichever one you prefer) ------> 10!/10! = 1

You then use this value and multiply it by 0.5(to the power of 10) to find the probability of the event occurring.

Remember probability tree diagrams from school/college? Well, I used to teach them, along with all of the Mathematics on any syllabus up to and including A-level Further Mathematics, for about 20 years ;)
 
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