US Politics Thread

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FogBlueInSanFran said:
Very useful series of tweets by a guy I like a lot (because he’s interesting, thoughtful and because he’s often right). He points out 1) Biden has never lost to a Republican; 2) consumer confidence among Dems is near a cycle high (something I’ve brought up before); and 3) the same people who said the US is headed for a hard landing are predicting a Trump win.

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Find it strange Biden hasnt been crowing about the stock market as that was always Trumps barometer. Peoples pensions must be looking a lot healthier.
 
Gabriel said:
Think his term ends in 2026, so you might have to wait until 2028.
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If something untoward should happen to Biden he is the made to measure replacement.

He made it clear he’s not “running” in 2024, but his Gubernatorial term is of no consequence. See DeSantis, and many others over time, for evidence of that.
 
super_city_si said:
Find it strange Biden hasnt been crowing about the stock market as that was always Trumps barometer. Peoples pensions must be looking a lot healthier.
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Patience.

It’s very early in the year and the soft landing isn’t assured. There is a significant fear of Q1 results not meeting expectations and interest rate cuts being less bold, and later in the year.

In addition, millions upon millions of Americans do not have stock market pensions (IRAs & 401Ks) because we have zero requirement for them. Many MAGAts are working poor fools who think Trump will fix the economy, but couldn’t tell you whether the economy is good, bad or indifferent and/or what Trump could/would/should do about it!

There may well be a time to crow about the stock market, but it’s certainly not that time yet, with 10 months to the election!
 
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ChicagoBlue said:
If something untoward should happen to Biden he is the made to measure replacement.

He made it clear he’s not “running” in 2024, but his Gubernatorial term is of no consequence. See DeSantis, and many others over time, for evidence of that.
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Will be interesting to see if Haley’s comments about age and mental ability gain her any ground in New Hampshire. Trump can barely make an appearance without offering her grist for her mill, and the more she highlights his declining capabilities, the less he can use that stick to beat Biden. Would be fascinating if ‘age’ , cognitive ability, and the prevailing gerontocracy became issues in this election, but I suspect that prospect would terrify those closest to power in both parties.
 
Gabriel said:
Will be interesting to see if Haley’s comments about age and mental ability gain her any ground in New Hampshire. Trump can barely make an appearance without offering her grist for her mill, and the more she highlights his declining capabilities, the less he can use that stick to beat Biden. Would be fascinating if ‘age’ , cognitive ability, and the prevailing gerontocracy became issues in this election, but I suspect that prospect would terrify those closest to power in both parties.
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American politics, in general, and the Senate, in particular, are like the TV Room at the local Rest Home for the Old and Infirm, so why should the presidency be any different?!

That said, it’s going to take a LOT more than Trump sounding like he has the mental ability and agility of an 8 yr old non-reader for the MAGA Cult to swear off their mission. And, make no mistake, they see it as a mission!

Dems are not nearly so sanguine about the age, and mental or physical agility, of Biden. Plus, they’re a fickle bunch of snowflakes who will vote Third Party rather than hold their nose for the least bad of the major party candidates, knowing it could fuck up the race for the Dems!

Don’t ask Hillary about her feelings for Jill Stein, or Bush Sr about Ross Perot!
 
halfcenturyup said:
So this thread is very US- and UK-centric for obvious reasons, but took a bit of a turn internationally in the last few pages, so I was wondering what people think other parts of the world would like from the US election?

BRICS for example. We know what Russia wants (for Ukraine), and I imagine China wants the same (if only for Taiwan) although Trump is unpredictable on China. India? Brazil? South Africa? I suppose they would all like a US president for sale? Netanyahu will obviously want Trump to finish what he started long ago. The rest of the Middle East? They would presumably like someone who likes money? Europe clearly wants stability, so Biden. Any thoughts on those, or any others? Africa, South America?
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Although Trump’s foreign policy last time around was mostly consistent with what US presidents usually do, he is capricious and has a narrow view of US interests. I would argue Netanyahu would prefer Biden who has been right being everything Israel has done in the last few months (to an indefensible extent, in my view).
 
TinFoilHat said:
What's the point of Haley wasting money now?

Unless she shifts to become an Anti Shitgibbon candidate she's got as much chance as I have of becoming president
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Primaries are all about momentum and while it is at this stage about 99% Trump’s to lose, Haley does stand a decent chance in New Hampshire on Tuesday. She’s currently polling somewhere between 35-40%.

Really there’s one final big unanswered question that will determine things… Were those planning to vote Christie, Desantis or Vivek looking for any Trump alternative? Or is Trump their second choice?

The only way Haley stands any chance is if the voting is split into two major camps of “Trump” and “Not Trump” and the latter coalesces behind her.

My guess is if she doesn’t finish ahead of Trump on Tuesday she will withdraw, leaving him as the defacto nominee after just two states. Not sure if that has ever happened for the party in opposition but that’s the cult in action.

It’s frankly going to take a miracle at this stage.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
Primaries are all about momentum and while it is at this stage about 99% Trump’s to lose, Haley does stand a decent chance in New Hampshire on Tuesday. She’s currently polling somewhere between 35-40%.

Really there’s one final big unanswered question that will determine things… Were those planning to vote Christie, Desantis or Vivek looking for any Trump alternative? Or is Trump their second choice?

The only way Haley stands any chance is if the voting is split into two major camps of “Trump” and “Not Trump” and the latter coalesces behind her.

My guess is if she doesn’t finish ahead of Trump on Tuesday she will withdraw, leaving him as the defacto nominee after just two states. Not sure if that has ever happened for the party in opposition but that’s the cult in action.

It’s frankly going to take a miracle at this stage.
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If trump becomes the nominee this far out just watch him try and put the brakes on all his court cases.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
Primaries are all about momentum and while it is at this stage about 99% Trump’s to lose, Haley does stand a decent chance in New Hampshire on Tuesday. She’s currently polling somewhere between 35-40%.

Really there’s one final big unanswered question that will determine things… Were those planning to vote Christie, Desantis or Vivek looking for any Trump alternative? Or is Trump their second choice?

The only way Haley stands any chance is if the voting is split into two major camps of “Trump” and “Not Trump” and the latter coalesces behind her.

My guess is if she doesn’t finish ahead of Trump on Tuesday she will withdraw, leaving him as the defacto nominee after just two states. Not sure if that has ever happened for the party in opposition but that’s the cult in action.

It’s frankly going to take a miracle at this stage.
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I figure if she can get to the 40s she hangs in but think you’re right at high 30s or less. But only a matter of time because he will go full bore on her next. Also not sure how her fundraising looks. Of course it was DeSantis who destroyed DeSantis given how milquetoasty he is/was and NH has some better differentiating points, sort of.
 
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