US Politics Thread

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ChicagoBlue said:
I wasn’t complaining about him having the show, or how good he is at what he does, but as we get closer to the election, 20 mins of comedic pisstake on the election isn’t going to cut it.

It would be far better to have the truth bombs exploding every day, or at least MWF.

To me, it feels like the Democrats are losing the propaganda war right now, as the right fills the airwaves with crumbs, while the loaves of Republican bullshit go unaddressed!
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Agreed.

Stewart is very good at what he does though.
 
ChicagoBlue said:
I wasn’t complaining about him having the show, or how good he is at what he does, but as we get closer to the election, 20 mins of comedic pisstake on the election isn’t going to cut it.

It would be far better to have the truth bombs exploding every day, or at least MWF.

To me, it feels like the Democrats are losing the propaganda war right now, as the right fills the airwaves with crumbs, while the loaves of Republican bullshit go unaddressed!
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Ari Melber made the point more seriously on his show earlier.

He showed examples of news organisations,including his own, having bullet points such as "Is Biden too old?" and how this influence may hinder Biden.
 
TinFoilHat said:
Ari Melber made the point more seriously on his show earlier.

He showed examples of news organisations,including his own, having bullet points such as "Is Biden too old?" and how this influence may hinder Biden.
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No matter how bad Trump is, he's box office, and the race between him and Biden is the hot news ticket. It makes money.

The problem is, if these news organisations keep fuelling the fire to suite their own ends and the Orange Rapey Conman gets back in the White House come January next year as a result, they'll have a lot more than reporting the 'news' to worry about.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
This is what happens when you fail to vet your candidates thoroughly
www.forbes.com

Democrat Tom Suozzi Wins New York Congressional Race To Replace George Santos

Suozzi’s win narrows the Republicans' already slim majority in the House of Representatives.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
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A few very interesting results last night.

This seat Santos won with +7. It’s now been lost to the Dems at +8. 15 point swing.

Pennsylvania special ‘supposedly purple’ state seat (one that determined the majority in their state House) - absolutely smashed by Prokopiak winning by +35.

A district in deep red Oklahoma that went +25 in the last election… the GOP held onto it by +5.

When I say the math doesn’t math for the national polling we’re seeing. These are the kinds of things that strengthen that argument. All of the polls for these three races underestimated the Dem result by between 5-20 points. Since Roe v Wade was overturned the Dems have overperformed polling on literally almost every occasion.

I honestly think the GOP are in for a very hard reality check in November.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
A few very interesting results last night.

This seat Santos won with +7. It’s now been lost to the Dems at +8. 15 point swing.

Pennsylvania special ‘supposedly purple’ state seat (one that determined the majority in their state House) - absolutely smashed by Prokopiak winning by +35.

A district in deep red Oklahoma that went +25 in the last election… the GOP held onto it by +5.

When I say the math doesn’t math for the national polling we’re seeing. These are the kinds of things that strengthen that argument. All of the polls for these three races underestimated the Dem result by between 5-20 points. Since Roe v Wade was overturned the Dems have overperformed polling on literally almost every occasion.

I honestly think the GOP are in for a very hard reality check in November.
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I f**king hope so. I'm moving out there in June. If Trump gets in, it's going to be carnage
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
A few very interesting results last night.

This seat Santos won with +7. It’s now been lost to the Dems at +8. 15 point swing.

Pennsylvania special ‘supposedly purple’ state seat (one that determined the majority in their state House) - absolutely smashed by Prokopiak winning by +35.

A district in deep red Oklahoma that went +25 in the last election… the GOP held onto it by +5.

When I say the math doesn’t math for the national polling we’re seeing. These are the kinds of things that strengthen that argument. All of the polls for these three races underestimated the Dem result by between 5-20 points. Since Roe v Wade was overturned the Dems have overperformed polling on literally almost every occasion.

I honestly think the GOP are in for a very hard reality check in November.
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*maths
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
A few very interesting results last night.

This seat Santos won with +7. It’s now been lost to the Dems at +8. 15 point swing.

Pennsylvania special ‘supposedly purple’ state seat (one that determined the majority in their state House) - absolutely smashed by Prokopiak winning by +35.

A district in deep red Oklahoma that went +25 in the last election… the GOP held onto it by +5.

When I say the math doesn’t math for the national polling we’re seeing. These are the kinds of things that strengthen that argument. All of the polls for these three races underestimated the Dem result by between 5-20 points. Since Roe v Wade was overturned the Dems have overperformed polling on literally almost every occasion.

I honestly think the GOP are in for a very hard reality check in November.
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There is something very wrong with the polling data. So much evidence points to the GOP being in a mess yet the polling holds up fine.

To be honest it suits dems to have the polling 5 points against them. The dems have a much better ground game and they are up for the fight. The uncertainty works for them.
 
Gareth Barry Conlon said:
There is something very wrong with the polling data. So much evidence points to the GOP being in a mess yet the polling holds up fine.

To be honest it suits dems to have the polling 5 points against them. The dems have a much better ground game and they are up for the fight. The uncertainty works for them.
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Agree on both counts. I think the issue the pollsters are having (and this is total speculation) is the difference in sensibilities between Trump and Biden voters. Kind of like a Shy Tory effect. There's plenty of people who will vote for Biden as a status-quo candidate without being vocal in their support - like many did for Thatcher and then Major. I don't think there's such a thing as a shy Trump voter. They are all extremely vocal in their support, disproportionately to other candidates, I suspect. So all the modelling they're doing to suggest that people will say "Don't Know" in a poll but then turn up and vote for Trump is just not how it's panning out in practice. If you are a Don't Know at this stage, you are probably wavering between Dems, Third Party and not voting... because Trump exclusively preaches to the converted.

I think these results suggest that difference may also translate further down the ballot.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
Agree on both counts. I think the issue the pollsters are having (and this is total speculation) is the difference in sensibilities between Trump and Biden voters. Kind of like a Shy Tory effect. There's plenty of people who will vote for Biden as a status-quo candidate without being vocal in their support - like many did for Thatcher and then Major. I don't think there's such a thing as a shy Trump voter. They are all extremely vocal in their support, disproportionately to other candidates, I suspect. So all the modelling they're doing to suggest that people will say "Don't Know" in a poll but then turn up and vote for Trump is just not how it's panning out in practice. If you are a Don't Know at this stage, you are probably wavering between Dems, Third Party and not voting... because Trump exclusively preaches to the converted.

I think these results suggest that difference may also translate further down the ballot.
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The thing with polling is its been wrong for a number if cycles now and they should adjust. The brash loud Trump vote vs the shy Biden vote as an example was true last time and in the mid terms it's consistently over cooked the GOP vote. The GE polling was better and maybe with Trump on the ballot its more accurate. But we only get to test that every 4 years.

However it's all irrelevant at this stage. The results count and it was a great set of results for the dems. And then it's events on the ground and Trump's legal problems are still broadly on course to convict him ahead of the election. The next 4/6 weeks will be pivotal as the SCOTUS has to act now if its going to help him.
 
Gareth Barry Conlon said:
The thing with polling is its been wrong for a number if cycles now and they should adjust. The brash loud Trump vote vs the shy Biden vote as an example was true last time and in the mid terms it's consistently over cooked the GOP vote. The GE polling was better and maybe with Trump on the ballot its more accurate. But we only get to test that every 4 years.

However it's all irrelevant at this stage. The results count and it was a great set of results for the dems. And then it's events on the ground and Trump's legal problems are still broadly on course to convict him ahead of the election. The next 4/6 weeks will be pivotal as the SCOTUS has to act now if its going to help him.
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Looks like next port of call for those legal problems is Engoron's verdict which is speculated to be out on Friday. Then we might get to see how deep Trump's pockets really go.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
Looks like next port of call for those legal problems is Engoron's verdict which is speculated to be out on Friday. Then we might get to see how deep Trump's pockets really go.
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I suspect he's managed to make hundreds of millions from his grift over the last few years so don't see the fine troubling him. But the money is not in the Trump organisation and its likely he will have to wind up the property business. It's more a psychological blow.

There is no way he has raised hundreds of millions in political funds and not skimmed a big chunk if the top. For scale I think over 2bn was spent in the 2020 election by Trump or by pacs supporting him. How much did he pocket?
 
Gareth Barry Conlon said:
I suspect he's managed to make hundreds of millions from his grift over the last few years so don't see the fine troubling him. But the money is not in the Trump organisation and its likely he will have to wind up the property business. It's more a psychological blow.

There is no way he has raised hundreds of millions in political funds and not skimmed a big chunk if the top. For scale I think over 2bn was spent in the 2020 election by Trump or by pacs supporting him. How much did he pocket?
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I mean there is no way he has the money - he is trying Hard now to get his daughter in law the chair of the RNC with the open message that every penny nationally going forward will go directly to Trump.
 
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