From "The Analyst":
EUROPE FINALLY GETS IT AS MAJOR MOVES TO AID UKRAINE UNFOLD
President Macron of France, no longer facing the pressure of reelection as his second term enters its second half, has suddenly become motivated to press far harder for aid for Ukraine.
Germany has been in quiet negotiations with India for artillery shells. Czechia has led a consortium to acquire 800,000 shells - the Canadians and Dutch have already agreed to finance most of it.
In an unprecedented move, as the EU struggles to meet its commitments to Ukraine, it’s been agreed to use EU money to buy shells from outside of the EU. Countries with sizeable reserves are being approached to supply some of what’s needed as European industry gears up.
The problems for the European industry are a mirror of what’s happened in America. Post Cold War the industrial base shrank so much and so far, expanding it by 100% is still nowhere near where it needs to be. It’s like going from extra small to small with the aim of trying to reach medium in reasonable time, when what’s needed is three sizes bigger and needs to be XXL.
Yet finally, those problems are recognised. Not only that but what’s also been recognised is that Ukraine needs aid now. Even if America turned the taps on tomorrow and surged supplies, there’s limited capacity in Poland, to force such quantities through the system and get it to the front lines in Ukraine. It will take at least a month to six weeks.
There’s also a growing acceptance in the Biden Administration that dithering about on ATACMS, GLSDB and even more Abram’s and Bradley’s
has finally been put to one side.
The new aid package when it’s passed - and it will be eventually, is going to see some juicy new weapons that are going to make the Russians deeply unhappy. $61 billion is a lot of money- and it’s going to make a difference.
The Macron statement that if it got far enough he would send French troops into Ukraine to make sure Russia doesn’t win, pretty much caused a meltdown in some capitals. Several reacted quickly - including America - saying that’s never going to happen - with their troops - but Russia leapt on the declaration. Of course they would - it played into their propaganda that Russia has always been fighting NATO. Yet by saying it in many ways, Macron almo6st said, ‘well you’re always saying it’s already happening, so what if were true!’ Which forced the Kremlin to say it would open up a war with all of NATO - a war it says it’s already fighting - so it totally undermined their stupid propaganda argument.
As I said after Davos and Munich, the lobbying, advice, the knowledge so many of us have tried so hard to get leadership across Europe to accept as fact, is getting through. The fall of Avdivka and the death of Navalny somehow crystallised the realities for them. Trump with his stupid NATO statements a couple of weeks back, added to that feeling.
The EU has never seen itself as ‘power’. Its is not a United States of Europe and nowhere near it. But it is a community of democratic trading nations that realises it has to be more. Its unity of purpose when it comes to Russia is growing stronger by the day. It wants Ukraine as part of its future - it’s a mutually beneficial prospect that excites everyone - the reconstruction post war will be intense and vast.
Even the Toad of the Balkans, the odious and corrupt Victor Orban, said yesterday that he doesn’t want a border with Russia. 1956 and the soviet suppression of a democratic uprising in Hungary hasn’t been forgotten. Even he knows Ukraine is better intact even for Hungary. And one cannot help but think if Orban is starting to see that Russia can’t be allowed to win. He’s got almost everything he wanted from NATO and the EU. Maybe now he knows which side his bread is buttered.
There has been a turning of the tide in European capitals. A resilience is building. Democracy takes time to react - far too long - but never underestimate its capacity to act when it decides it must. CONTINUES..
CONTINUES:…
The late 2022 offensive when Ukraine retook Kherson and the Kupiansk area made it seem like they would quickly defeat Russia. It acted as a stop on urgency. The offensive last year created a stalemate that stuck. The fall of Avdivka has shattered any illusions - the Russian offensive and Ukrainian withdrawals have crashed through any remaining reticence.
The Europeans are finally awake.
