President Trump

Trump is like the DOT COM bubble.
Those companies had all the slogans, all the hype. Said every sound bite over and over.
People bought those shares like crazy.
When asked what they actually made or sold, they couldn't answer (because they didn't sell anything) and went bump.
People lost a lot of money.
Stupid is, is what stupid does...
 
SebastianBlue said:
An aggregation from Gallop themselves:

news.gallup.com

Voter Enthusiasm and Turnout | Gallup Topic

All Gallup articles on Voter Enthusiasm and Turnout
news.gallup.com news.gallup.com

A study that has been cited quite heavily regarding the impacts of voter enthusiasm on election turnout and, ultimately, election results:

www.sciencedirect.com

A behavioral measure of the enthusiasm gap in American elections

What are the effects of a mobilized party base on elections? I present a new behavioral measure of the enthusiasm gap in a set of American elections t…
www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com

A highlight from the study is enthusiasm has a particularly outsized impact on competitive races (which intuitively makes sense).

By the by, one of the most competitive races (and potentially important, due to the likely composition of the next congress), is right here in Maine, where I currently live, in the 2nd Congressional district, where a (very) moderate Democrat is attempting to fight off a heavily-backed (record amounts of money from entities outside of the state have been flooding in) Republican in order to become the new Joe Manchin in the House.
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Fair enough, thanks. Will have a better look later but I don't see much to correlate a high percentage of voters saying they are more enthusiastic with an actual increase in voting. That Gallup aggregator does say, however, that early voting is down which isn't what I am hearing on here. And the academic piece, as far as I can make out defines an "enthusiasm gap" and then applies that to voting patterns? Not sure it's relevant specifically to the stats presented

Anyway, it doesn't matter, we will see soon enough. Thanks for making the effort to try to educate me :)
 
Dax777 said:
Well then let me post the view of someone who articulates my position better than I can.

Click to expand...


I suppose I asked for that :)

I will try to get to the end of it later. I am genuinely interested in why almost 50% of the electorate are still, despite everything, probably going to vote for him. The reasons have to be deeply held and it's hard to imagine them going away even if Harris wins. Interesting times ahead.
 
halfcenturyup said:
Fair enough, thanks. Will have a better look later but I don't see much to correlate a high percentage of voters saying they are more enthusiastic with an actual increase in voting. That Gallup aggregator does say, however, that early voting is down which isn't what I am hearing on here. And the academic piece, as far as I can make out defines an "enthusiasm gap" and then applies that to voting patterns? Not sure it's relevant specifically to the stats presented

Anyway, it doesn't matter, we will see soon enough. Thanks for making the effort to try to educate me :)
Click to expand...
The enthusiasm gap is a derivative of the enthusiasm measure, which makes the study relevant.

This is abstract for clarity:

What are the effects of a mobilized party base on elections? I present a new behavioral measure of the enthusiasm gap in a set of American elections to identify how the turnout rate of the party faithful varies across different contexts. I find that the advantaged party can see its registrants turn out by four percentage points more than the disadvantaged party in some elections, and that this effect can be even larger in competitive House districts. I estimate the net benefit to party vote share of the mobilized base, which is around one percentage point statewide, and up to one and one half points in competitive House contests. These results suggest that the partisan characteristics of an election have consequences not just for vote choice, but for the composition of the electorate.

Regarding early voting being down compared to 2020, I am not sure I have seen anyone on here claiming that overall early voting is higher than the previous election. It is not particularly surprising that it would be down, given the 2020 election was occurring during the beginning of the pandemic, so there was a major emphasis on early and mail-in voting because it was seen as unsafe to vote in person. That was actually hugely contentious at the time (and even now, due to Trump’s Big Lie narrative). That is not the case with this cycle (for better or worse, if you ask public health officials), and so more people will likely be planning to vote in person, which will likely see early voting lower this cycle.

People on here have discussed the current indications that women are voting early at a higher rate than men, as well as Democrats at a higher rate than Republicans (which is, by the way, almost always the case, and is as an element of the “Red Mirage” that plays out on Election Day, which I have posted about). And those gaps will likely benefit the Democrats, for reasons we have already discussed.

 
halfcenturyup said:
Keep posting. I may think a lot of what you say is as nutty as my sister's Christmas cake (long story) but it's always interesting to hear other views.
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You have to realise that nearly the Majority of Voting Americans think like Dax. 70 - 80 Million, Could be even more too in 5 or 6 days times.
 
Dax777 said:
Well then let me post the view of someone who articulates my position better than I can.

Click to expand...

His point about DEI is weak imo because Harris is far better qualified than Trump (even if he was president before). Unless you are clouded by MAGA nonsense.

His point about 50% of people supporting trump is weak imo because as he says there are reasons behind this that no one seems to delve much into (poverty, education, disillusionment, nationalism, etc). Unless you are clouded by MAGA nonsense.

His point that the sky didn't fall when Trump presided over the US is true to an extent. The US became a laughing stock and a frustration but the sky didn't fall. However, this time around the rhetoric is worse and it's a time of big global issues that are way beyond the US. We need global consensus on Climate Change at the very least and he's impossible to deal with because he's a cray cray cuckoo loo la nut-job idiot.

MAGA is shit because there is more at stake than just America. And MAGA is shit because it divides America. This guy seems like he just wants to win an argument. As do you tbh.
 
SebastianBlue said:
The enthusiasm gap is a derivative of the enthusiasm measure, which makes the study relevant.

This is abstract for clarity:

What are the effects of a mobilized party base on elections? I present a new behavioral measure of the enthusiasm gap in a set of American elections to identify how the turnout rate of the party faithful varies across different contexts. I find that the advantaged party can see its registrants turn out by four percentage points more than the disadvantaged party in some elections, and that this effect can be even larger in competitive House districts. I estimate the net benefit to party vote share of the mobilized base, which is around one percentage point statewide, and up to one and one half points in competitive House contests. These results suggest that the partisan characteristics of an election have consequences not just for vote choice, but for the composition of the electorate.

Regarding early voting being down compared to 2020, I am not sure I have seen anyone on here claiming that overall early voting is higher than the previous election. It is not particularly surprising that it would be down, given the 2020 election was occurring during the beginning of the pandemic, so there was a major emphasis on early and mail-in voting because it was seen as unsafe to vote in person. That was actually hugely contentious at the time (and even now, due to Trump’s Big Lie narrative). That is not the case with this cycle (for better or worse, if you ask public health officials), and so more people will likely be planning to vote in person, which will likely see early voting lower this cycle.

People on here have discussed the current indications that women are voting early at a higher rate than men, as well as Democrats at a higher rate than Republicans (which is, by the way, almost always the case, and is as an element of the “Red Mirage” that plays out on Election Day, which I have posted about). And those gaps will likely benefit the Democrats, for reasons we have already discussed.

Click to expand...

Yes I read that, but I didn't understand how an "advantaged party" could lead to some specific numerical increase in turnout over the disadvantaged party. Which led me to believe the "enthusiasm gap" isn't the simple "are you more enthusiastic than last time" question that started this whole thing off and is more of an analytical calculation. Anyway, it doesn't matter.

My only point was that if you don't know how enthusiastic people were last time, how enthusiastic people are this time doesn't really help.

Good points well made on the early voting, though. Fair do's.
 
TonyM said:
His point about DEI is weak imo because Harris is far better qualified than Trump (even if he was president before). Unless you are clouded by MAGA nonsense.
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He didn't even make a point about DEI. He simply said he understood why people would reach thT conclusion.

And he further agreed with the moderators point that all V.Ps could be categorized by some as DEI. Including Kamala Harris. Who's V.Pship was on the basis of her race and sex.

TonyM said:
His point about 50% of people supporting trump is weak imo because as he says there are reasons behind this that no one seems to delve much into (poverty, education, disillusionment, nationalism, etc). Unless you are clouded by MAGA nonsense.
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It's factual. Half of the country does.

TonyM said:
His point that the sky didn't fall when Trump presided over the US is true to an extent. The US became a laughing stock and a frustration but the sky didn't fall. However, this time around the rhetoric is worse and it's a time of big global issues that are way beyond the US. We need global consensus on Climate Change at the very least and he's impossible to deal with because he's a cray cray cuckoo loo la nut-job idiot.
Click to expand...
When has there never been a big global issue? The sky didn't fall, the economy was better, our immigration system was better. And we were a laughing stock only in the mind of the liberal.

The world was less volatile too. Whole we are at it. These facts don't change whether you hate Trump or not.


TonyM said:
MAGA is shit because there is more at stake than just America. And MAGA is shit because it divides America. This guy seems like he just wants to win an argument. As do you tbh.
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MAGA is a byproduct of an already divided America. Not the cause.
 
halfcenturyup said:
That's a weird statistic. Enthusiasm about voting. Does it count twice if you are more enthusiastic? Joking, obviously. But you could interpret those numbers anyway you want, surely, not just as a positive for democrats.
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Ok how else would you interpret them?

Enthusiasm is highly important for turnout. That’s all the Dems need, to turnout their voters. They massive outweigh MAGA if they get off the sofa and vote.
 
SWP's back said:
Ok how else would you interpret them?

Enthusiasm is highly important for turnout. That’s all the Dems need, to turnout their voters. They massive outweigh MAGA if they get off the sofa and vote.
Click to expand...
Very true. Such are the margins that turnout may be the deciding factor - one which is reliant on enthusiasm for voting.
 
The blue phantom said:
You have to realise that nearly the Majority of Voting Americans think like Dax. 70 - 80 Million, Could be even more too in 5 or 6 days times.
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The majority of the European population used to believe that the earth was the centre of the universe. They were wrong, so it’s just a matter of time!
 
TinFoilHat said:
Probably means fuck all but Faux News are winning the cable news TV battle. Hopefully more people watching it for entertainment value than believing the BS they pass off as 'news'.
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Fewer and fewer people are watching cable news generally, and those tuning in to Fox News are the MAGA diehards, so there’s not much that can really be gleaned by them winning the “TV battle”.
 
Pennsylvania Has Already Become Ground Zero for Election-Fraud Claims

Trump and supporters are amplifying doubts in a key swing state before any ballots have been tallied—alarming state and local officials

…

Nuns in Erie falsely accused of perpetrating voter fraud. A suburban Philadelphia election-line snafu amplified worldwide in under half an hour. A Tuesday night rallying cry by Donald Trump: “They have already started cheating in Lancaster.”

Across Pennsylvania, local and state officials are warning that efforts by Trump and his supporters to call into question the integrity of the presidential election in the crucial swing state are ramping up—before a single ballot has been counted.

The state’s top election official, Republican Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt, said Wednesday that in just the previous 24 hours, several widely disseminated videos lacked context or were false.

“Sharing social posts filled with half-truths or even outright lies is harmful to our representative democracy,” he said at a press conference, urging voters to get information from trusted sources and adding that “mis- and disinformation” about the state’s election is “likely to continue in the coming days and weeks ahead.”

 
Dax777 said:
So.... Kinda like what you and Foggy do here? I noticed most of the dissenters have been demoralized and left

Just for that reason and that reason alone, I'm NEVER going to leave.

I was banned for some time. Why? I don't know. Certainly didn't say anything close to what many here say about or too me.

But then again, it is what it is. I will stay here and keep posting what I believe to be true in good faith.
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Keep posting. Mine just get deleted for no reason what so ever.
I find it all amusing.
 
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