The Labour Government

Fordyboy46 said:
Because he's making a poor fist of things so far. There's only so long that you can keep blaming the opposition, and the tories were the same when they took over from Labour. We just have shit parties all round
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The Tories went to their death with Sunak still blaming Labour for the financial crisis in July's GE campaign - that was after 14 years in office !!
 
proof that its political posturing and culture wars

www.mirror.co.uk

Kemi Badenoch has never actually met any grooming gang survivors

The Tory leader's spokesman said she didn't need to meet with victims, because she's read all about it in the media - and had no current plans to meet with anyone - but denied she was jumping on an Elon Musk-fuelled bandwagon
www.mirror.co.uk www.mirror.co.uk
 
Fordyboy46 said:
Because he's making a poor fist of things so far. There's only so long that you can keep blaming the opposition, and the tories were the same when they took over from Labour. We just have shit parties all round
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Don’t think he is really. Inherited a difficult position and is making a start on recovering the situation
 
When you have a PM who tells you to against something then we no longer live in a democracy WTF
 
bluenova said:
The yield rates not seen since 1998 is a bit of a red herring.

They were under 1% as recently as the start of 2022, and were already over 5% in the last month of the Tory government. To be jumping to 5.3%, considering how much was done in the budget is a total nothing stat.
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I admire your confidence that the ongoing rise in gilt yields is ‘a bit of a red herring’, but I have to say that I really don’t agree with you.

Firstly, on the rise in gilt yields, the thing to emphasise here is that the borrowing projections outlined in the October Budget are, as the OBR stressed at the time, extremely vulnerable to higher than projected gilt yields because of the amount of extra borrowing signed off by Labour. And the signs here aren’t encouraging.

Long-term yields ended up averaging about 40bp more than the OBR had expected in Q4 last year and currently they are already around 70-80bp more than anticipated for Q1 this year. The OBR stated in the October Budget that the fiscal rule around the current budget would be broken if funding costs were just 30bp higher than expected through the forecast period, and of course GDP growth in recent months has proved materially worse than expected as well.So Reeves is undoubtedly going to have to do more in March in order to keep the forecasts onside.

The worrying issue however is exactly what Reeves will do, given that the October Budget went down like a lead balloon. More of what she did last year isn’t an option, and of course they have boxed themselves in with regard to which taxes they can raise, if they want to stick to their manifesto promises. So expenditure cuts appear likely to bear most of the burden, but this in itself would reverse the political message of the October Budget at the first opportunity and create issues within the Labour Party. A bit of a shambles, in other words.

As @metalblue has already stated, a rise in yields in itself is not a major issue, but the current combination of rising yields, a weaker pound and poor growth prospects are a major worry because these factors can develop as a loop. That’s certainly the message coming from the gilt market today and personally I think Reeves will be very lucky to still be in a job by summer.

And before people (rightly) talk about Truss and her mini-Budget, it’s worth remembering that a lot of the factors which amplified the market reaction to the Truss fiasco (LDI issues) are much less relevant now following a number of regulatory changes. So the current problems in the gilt market could actually be harder to turn around, and require a bigger change of direction in fiscal policy.

As I said I think Reeves is in serious trouble and most of it is self-inflicted given how aggressive she was last October with the additional spending and borrowing.
 
Brewster's millions said:
I admire your confidence that the ongoing rise in gilt yields is ‘a bit of a red herring’, but I have to say that I really don’t agree with you.

Firstly, on the rise in gilt yields, the thing to emphasise here is that the borrowing projections outlined in the October Budget are, as the OBR stressed at the time, extremely vulnerable to higher than projected gilt yields because of the amount of extra borrowing signed off by Labour. And the signs here aren’t encouraging.

Long-term yields ended up averaging about 40bp more than the OBR had expected in Q4 last year and currently they are already around 70-80bp more than anticipated for Q1 this year. The OBR stated in the October Budget that the fiscal rule around the current budget would be broken if funding costs were just 30bp higher than expected through the forecast period, and of course GDP growth in recent months has proved materially worse than expected as well.So Reeves is undoubtedly going to have to do more in March in order to keep the forecasts onside.

The worrying issue however is exactly what Reeves will do, given that the October Budget went down like a lead balloon. More of what she did last year isn’t an option, and of course they have boxed themselves in with regard to which taxes they can raise, if they want to stick to their manifesto promises. So expenditure cuts appear likely to bear most of the burden, but this in itself would reverse the political message of the October Budget at the first opportunity and create issues within the Labour Party. A bit of a shambles, in other words.

As @metalblue has already stated, a rise in yields in itself is not a major issue, but the current combination of rising yields, a weaker pound and poor growth prospects are a major worry because these factors can develop as a loop. That’s certainly the message coming from the gilt market today and personally I think Reeves will be very lucky to still be in a job by summer.

And before people (rightly) talk about Truss and her mini-Budget, it’s worth remembering that a lot of the factors which amplified the market reaction to the Truss fiasco (LDI issues) are much less relevant now following a number of regulatory changes. So the current problems in the gilt market could actually be harder to turn around, and require a bigger change of direction in fiscal policy.

As I said I think Reeves is in serious trouble and most of it is self-inflicted given how aggressive she was last October with the additional spending and borrowing.
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We'll have to see, but it's the hyperbole of the 1998 comparison that's a nonsense stat.

Clearly the economy isn't in great shape, but compared to the shocks of the last few years, the changes since Labour came into power just aren't comparable. I'm sure you can think of some positive reasons why gilts were at a similar level earlier this year, and why the pound was just as low earlier this year, but do you genuinely think that the spin we're seeing about this being something that is a disaster for the decades, is accurate?
 
Fordyboy46 said:
I'm not a tory at all, but they'll be back in again in a few years
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unfortunately..... still Labour would be worse... We need PR and now to get a true reflection of the country's political viewpoint. This two party, first past the post system is systematically destroying this country.
 
Fordyboy46 said:
I'm not a tory at all, but they'll be back in again in a few years
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They won't. Labour are nowhere near as unpopular as right wing social media makes them sound, and all this stuff with Musk will blow over well before the next election. Labour actually lead in the polls and IF I had to make a prediction, the Musk stuff will strength Starmer in the long term as it will make him look like a political diplomat compared to Musks schizo rants. And besides, British will always back a Brit over an American. Even Boris knew that.
 
Damocles said:
They won't. Labour are nowhere near as unpopular as right wing social media makes them sound, and all this stuff with Musk will blow over well before the next election. Labour actually lead in the polls and IF I had to make a prediction, the Musk stuff will strength Starmer in the long term as it will make him look like a political diplomat compared to Musks schizo rants. And besides, British will always back a Brit over an American. Even Boris knew that.
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All depends on the economy.
 
Damocles said:
They won't. Labour are nowhere near as unpopular as right wing social media makes them sound, and all this stuff with Musk will blow over well before the next election. Labour actually lead in the polls and IF I had to make a prediction, the Musk stuff will strength Starmer in the long term as it will make him look like a political diplomat compared to Musks schizo rants. And besides, British will always back a Brit over an American. Even Boris knew that.
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And a South African too ;)
 
I've been arguing for PR for literally 50 years. I usually got told, by Tories, that I was a sore loser and that it was just that I wanted a backdoor way for 'my lot' to have more MPs. Hardly anyone agreed with me bar the odd Lib-Dem.

But funnily, now that the same FPTP system that gave Thatcher and Johnson big majorities on a minority of the vote has chanced to give the Tories a complete tonking of the first order, PR is suddenly the way forward. Even among people who until recently thought 'PR' was public relations.

I could make a lot of cynical and snarky remarks.
 
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