Russian invasion of Ukraine

roubaixtuesday said:
I read this sort of thing and just despair. How anyone can watch Trump Vance and Musk openly support neo-Nazis in Germany, Putin in Russia and Tommy Robinson here and conclude that yeah, those guys are playing 4D chess to get a good deal here is completely beyond me.

We're doomed!
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I did none of those things? I certainly dont think they're playing 4d chess. Not sure how you came to that conclusion from what I said.... I actually said the opposite - I think he's a dickhead.

A tad reactionary. But thats the problem with today.
 
Gorton_Tubster said:
I did none of those things? I certainly dont think they're playing 4d chess. Not sure how you came to that conclusion from what I said.... I actually said the opposite - I think he's a dickhead.

A tad reactionary. But thats the problem with today.
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You said he might be good at negotiating deals! So presumably, all the other stuff is about that deal, no? If not; unless there's some hidden genius thing going on here, he's actually just a criminal fascist who's no good at international negotiations at all.
 
The only good thing that could come out of the meetings in Saudi is that Trump states that Russia is not serious about peace and the US will flood Ukraine with US weapons till Russia is serious about peace.
That's what I hope anyway.
But I expect Trump will just surrender to show the world that democracy is indeed dead in the US.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
You said he might be good at negotiating deals! So presumably, all the other stuff is about that deal, no? If not; unless there's some hidden genius thing going on here, he's actually just a criminal fascist who's no good at international negotiations at all.
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No, again, I said he might be good at deals just by being a dickhead.

Like I said, the problems with society are people getting outraged at things they have imagined.
 
Gorton_Tubster said:
No, again, I said he might be good at deals just by being a dickhead.

Like I said, the problems with society are people getting outraged at things they have imagined.
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How can you be good at deals by being a dickhead?
Especially when negotiating with people who know what he’s like and can run rings round him.
He hasn’t bankrupted multiple businesses by accident. He has a long history of failure and the only thing he’s good at is conning thickos and spending other people’s money.
 
Trump wants to do whatever he wants in "his sphere". That's why he throws Ukraine under the bus. He has to be aware of the fact that Europe won't help much with China either. It's the only case in history as far as I know of, that an empire dismantled itself by choice and get rid of all his soft power and ally systems without any need.
 
Gorton_Tubster said:
tbh I have an open mind. I think he might actually be good at negotiating deals, just by being a dickhead if you know what I mean.
Sometimes a fresh approach is needed, it will be interesting to see if he makes any progress, but I expect even if he does it will be short term and come undone in laters years. We will see.
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Trump is terrible at deals. The man did a ‘deal’ with the Taliban to withdraw US troops by a certain date and released thousands of their personnel. He scuppered the Iranian deal that was in place to limit Iranian nuclear development and bring Iran back into the fold. He imposes tariffs then removes them at a whim. The man owned and bankrupted a casino for crying out loud. I mean, how do you bankrupt a fucking casino?

But he is excellent at being a dickhead and this, in my opinion, is also a problem for Putin who wants Ukraine in its entirety and does not want US having dibs on Ukrainian resources or a presence in Ukraine. For Putin, Ukraine is Russian and that’s it. Both Trump and Putin are transactional. Both will want something, but Ukraine is not Trump’s to give, and Putin has nothing to offer other than a ‘peace’ which is not really on the table and the absentee side in this conflict isn’t ready to give up either.

The only leverage the US has with Putin is the threat to pump in arms and resources which I don’t think they will do and Putin won’t buy it either. Cutting off arms to Ukraine is a dick move, but Ukraine will still get supplies, won’t bring a swift end to the conflict, and further alienate the Europeans.

So, what is the US end game here? Peace? How? What is the road map to achieve that? Is it mainly theatre to appease a domestic audience? Someone reference both sides divvying up the Ukrainian spoils between them, but Putin will not want a US ‘colony’ on his doorstep which future and more hostile US Presidents could exploit.

I guess the hope is that the dickhead may achieve something, but for that dickhead to move Putin the dickhead has to use leverage and the only leverage is ramping up arms to Ukraine - a move that gets my full support. Openly supporting Russia will not end the conflict and it will alienate the Europeans - especially countries like Poland.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Plenty of indication of the brilliance of Trump's negotiating strategy around.

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Wait, an end to the carnage, an attempt to determine the will of the Ukrainian people, followed by a negotiated settlement, has people up in arms?
 
117 M34 said:
What happens if zelensky wins the election?
Presume Russia will be wanting an election so they can rig it to get their own guy in.
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Is the correct answer, only if it was completely independent could it have any semblance of been ok, even then it would be fixed.
 
117 M34 said:
What happens if zelensky wins the election?
Presume Russia will be wanting an election so they can rig it to get their own guy in.
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This has been the plan for a while. That's why adolf X has suddenly been promoting the "not legitimate" stuff on Putin's behalf. Fortunately, people can see this a mile off.

Zelensky didn't leg it at the start of the war. (when many leaders would)
He stood by his country and fought back. He is about as legitimate as they come!
 
Hgblue2 said:
Wait, an end to the carnage, an attempt to determine the will of the Ukrainian people, followed by a negotiated settlement, has people up in arms?
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For a ceasefire to happen, both sides have to agree which will be difficult if one side isn’t actually part of the talks or represented at the talks.

Elections are a matter for the Ukrainian people and would ideally happen after a permanent peace deal is signed not during a pause in hostilities. ‘Elect the candidate I like or get bombed’ isn’t conducive to an open election. Additionally, the occupied territories will be problematic. Do Ukrainians there get a vote? Will it be rigged to sway the outcome?

A final settlement will have to be negotiated between the two sides in the conflict. Again, this will be difficult if one side is absent or not represented.
 
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