Trump, as a symbol of American populism, finds his main adversaries within the establishment. Engaging in conflicts with Russia and China is more likely to bring him troubles rather than benefits. This is even more evident in the case of his close ally, Elon Musk. For Musk, a main theme of his political involvement is the defense of traditional values. In the context of "traditional values," China and Russia might even be seen as sharing common ground with the moderate American right-wing. Indeed, from the perspective of Chinese values, many of Musk's viewpoints appear quite reasonable.
The challenge lies in the fact that within the United States, there is a lack of narrative that fosters friendly relations with China and Russia. While Trump's supporters are indeed opposed to the establishment, their worldview is largely shaped by the narratives propagated by establishment media. They need water, but they fear it. This leaves Trumpists isolated within the broader framework of international relations. The ideological struggle that Musk desires, if likened to the Cold War of the past, would place China, Russia, and the United States on the same side of the Iron Curtain, with Europe and the retreating American establishment on the other side. However, due to the absence of a narrative within the United States that can shape this scenario, such an alliance cannot be formed. Consequently, China and Russia are unlikely to respond positively to the Trump administration. Indeed, you can observe China maintaining a cautious and watchful distance.
Therefore, at least within the framework of international relations, it is difficult for Trump to succeed. During the Cold War, the framework of international relations could be understood as the United States, the Soviet Union, and China as the third camp. The United States successfully allied with China, accelerating the Soviet Union's downfall. In today's international landscape, Trump should have sought to build connections with China and Russia. However, it now appears more likely that China will not choose to respond to this new framework. Instead, China is more inclined to establish ties with Europe. This is easy to understand: if China enthusiastically embraced Trump's new game and consequently found itself at odds with Europe, would the United States have the capacity to sustain this new game in the long term?
From the perspective of an individual Chinese person's values, we hope that Musk can succeed. However, from a realist viewpoint, the success of both Trump and Musk seems unlikely. There is a conflict between strategic choices and personal values. For now, we are adopting a wait-and-see attitude. And I predict that, in the end, we will have no choice but to accept reality.