US Tariff War

Rachel likes the long form story, and she likes to weave a tale, so if you want to skip the stock market opener, FFWD to 5:30…and be ASTOUNDED BY THE LUNACY that is driving the American (and global) economy off the cliff.

Pay particular attention to economic expert Ron Vara…



You can’t make it up because no-one would ever believe you!

$5TRILLION later, here we sit.


Indeed. I've never heard the Kushner 'research' bit before, another reason to persist with my Amazon/Bezos boycott!

People have been calling out Navarro's economic illiteracy for years but when Trump openly said he was better prepared this time round and knew how to avoid being 'thwarted' in his plans I guess not enough people heard or were terrified enough to get out and vote. Now we are in the hands of a coalition of the crazy and the craven as the grifter-in-chief drags us further into chaos.
 
Indeed. I've never heard the Kushner 'research' bit before, another reason to persist with my Amazon/Bezos boycott!

People have been calling out Navarro's economic illiteracy for years but when Trump openly said he was better prepared this time round and knew how to avoid being 'thwarted' in his plans I guess not enough people heard or were terrified enough to get out and vote. Now we are in the hands of a coalition of the crazy and the craven as the grifter-in-chief drags us further into chaos.

Much of this is on Navarro's wikipedia page, along with other batshitcraziness.
 
Nissan Motor is said to be considering shifting some domestic production of US-bound vehicles to the US, the Nikkei reported this morning.

The move would be trumpeted by Donald Trump as a win, as he has said he wants to reignite American industry with his tariffs.

It could happen as early as this summer.

The Japanese automaker is said to be planning to reduce production at its Fukuoka factory.

It would then shift some manufacturing of its Rogue SUV to the US to mitigate the impact of Trump's tariffs, the report said.

I think Rogue sales dwarf all other Nissan sales in the US and not sure how big it is in other markets. They already do some assembly of the Rogue in Tennessee too I think? So there may be a legitimate business case to do this if they can keep the costs sensible. I guess many companies will be looking to see if they have instances like this.

What will be interesting is how many 'wins' of this type will Trump need in order to declare victory for his 'business strategy' before he changes tack and moves onto the next piece of chaos creation?
 
I think Rogue sales dwarf all other Nissan sales in the US and not sure how big it is in other markets. They already do some assembly of the Rogue in Tennessee too I think? So there may be a legitimate business case to do this if they can keep the costs sensible. I guess many companies will be looking to see if they have instances like this.

What will be interesting is how many 'wins' of this type will Trump need in order to declare victory for his 'business strategy' before he changes tack and moves onto the next piece of chaos creation?

There are more than a few non-US owned manufacturing plants in the US. BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen. Kai. Hyundai have a large plant in Alabama and opened another plant last year without the need for these nonsense tariffs. The US is a protectionist market at the best of times. The EU is as well, but both use non-tariff barriers ie food standards.

The US has quite a protectionist internal market between states especially in services.

The Trump tariffs are so old school they are positively Dickensian.
 
As far as I can see, the megacorps will be able to weather the situation, enough range, enough brand loyalty and muscle to set things up. There will be a hit for a while, obviously.

It's the smaller companies who make things that are going to break. A long-standing boardgame company posted this on Thursday:

On April 5th, a 54% tariff goes into effect on a wide range of goods imported from China. For those of us who create boardgames, this is not just a policy change. It's a seismic shift.

At Steve Jackson Games, we are actively assessing what this means for our products, our pricing, and our future plans. We do know that we can't absorb this kind of cost increase without raising prices. We've done our best over the past few years to shield players and retailers from the full brunt of rising freight costs and other increases, but this new tax changes the equation entirely.

Here are the numbers: A product we might have manufactured in China for $3.00 last year could now cost $4.62 before we even ship it across the ocean. Add freight, warehousing, fulfillment, and distribution margins, and that once-$25 game quickly becomes a $40 product. That's not a luxury upcharge; it's survival math.

Some people ask, "Why not manufacture in the U.S.?" I wish we could. But the infrastructure to support full-scale boardgame production – specialty dice making, die-cutting, custom plastic and wood components – doesn't meaningfully exist here yet. I've gotten quotes. I've talked to factories. Even when the willingness is there, the equipment, labor, and timelines simply aren't.

We aren't the only company facing this challenge. The entire board game industry is having very difficult conversations right now. For some, this might mean simplifying products or delaying launches. For others, it might mean walking away from titles that are no longer economically viable. And, for what I fear will be too many, it means closing down entirely.

Tariffs, when part of a long-term strategy to bolster domestic manufacturing, can be an effective tool. But that only works when there's a plan to build up the industries needed to take over production. There is no national plan in place to support manufacturing for the types of products we make. This isn't about steel and semiconductors. This is about paper goods, chipboard, wood tokens, plastic trays, and color-matched ink. These new tariffs are imposing huge costs without providing alternatives, and it's going to cost American consumers more at every level of the supply chain.

We want to be transparent with our community. This is real: Prices are going up. We're still determining how much and where.

If you're frustrated, you're not alone. We are too. And if you want to help, write to your elected officials. Ask them how these new policies help American creators and small businesses. Because right now, it feels like they don't.

We'll keep making games. But we'll be honest when the road gets harder, because we know you care about where your games come from – and about the people who make them.

*
I would also think that there is a limited pool of resources that could replace overseas production. If that pool of resources is not enough to provide all the production, the megacorps will hoover it up first, and the smaller companies will go bust.

Globalisation allows the smaller guys to compete and find a niche for themselves in the marketplace. This happened with Brexit. The SME’s were hardest hit by lack of access through cost to cheaper goods and materials. The big guys with greater resources can absorb the cost or even circumvent the cost.

To adequately police these tariffs and ensure they are applied requires a larger more intrusive customs force otherwise it becomes a balance between the risk of not applying the tariff vs the reward of not applying the tariff and if the reward is greater that the risk then for many, especially smaller businesses trying to keep themselves afloat, it is risk worth running. Oddly, this reminds me of prohibition which criminalised whole swathes of the population and fuelled the rise of organised crime. A thriving economy in non-tariffed applied goods awaits :)
 
Saw an interview with an American ambassador she’s full on MAGA, one of the things she kept mentioning was about getting industry up and running in case of war, now she didn’t say it just once but repeatedly, it’s almost like they want to get everything back just in case they go to war with someone, say the Chinese! She pointed to a fact a few years ago during COVID when China threatened to cut off certain things to the usa.
 
Rachel likes the long form story, and she likes to weave a tale, so if you want to skip the stock market opener, FFWD to 5:30…and be ASTOUNDED BY THE LUNACY that is driving the American (and global) economy off the cliff.

Pay particular attention to economic expert Ron Vara…



You can’t make it up because no-one would ever believe you!

$5TRILLION later, here we sit.

So the American people are awake.
That’s good.
Now give them time to shake that morning, ‘oh it was all just a bad dream’, phase out of their heads and realise, ‘wait, you mean this is happening?’

Let’s see how it plays out over the summer, but he’ll still blame someone else and his herd of sheep will still follow his lead regardless.

Thank god ( I think he’s still in the constitution) you’re all armed to the teeth over there. I mean what could possibly go wrong?
 
Nike, Under Amour and all those American sports brands are made in foreign countries. Surely it's going to be a catastrophe for them?
 
I wonder what the US rules on the origin of goods is. Could you ship Vietnamese origin shoes through the UK and pay 10% instead of the 49% (or whatever it is).

Most countries will have rules in place to stop it, but with how haphazard these tariffs are they might not have thought of it.
 
I think Rogue sales dwarf all other Nissan sales in the US and not sure how big it is in other markets. They already do some assembly of the Rogue in Tennessee too I think? So there may be a legitimate business case to do this if they can keep the costs sensible. I guess many companies will be looking to see if they have instances like this.

What will be interesting is how many 'wins' of this type will Trump need in order to declare victory for his 'business strategy' before he changes tack and moves onto the next piece of chaos creation?
The Rogue is the primary SUV used by at least one national car rental company.
 
As far as I can see, the megacorps will be able to weather the situation, enough range, enough brand loyalty and muscle to set things up. There will be a hit for a while, obviously.

It's the smaller companies who make things that are going to break. A long-standing boardgame company posted this on Thursday:

On April 5th, a 54% tariff goes into effect on a wide range of goods imported from China. For those of us who create boardgames, this is not just a policy change. It's a seismic shift.

At Steve Jackson Games, we are actively assessing what this means for our products, our pricing, and our future plans. We do know that we can't absorb this kind of cost increase without raising prices. We've done our best over the past few years to shield players and retailers from the full brunt of rising freight costs and other increases, but this new tax changes the equation entirely.

Here are the numbers: A product we might have manufactured in China for $3.00 last year could now cost $4.62 before we even ship it across the ocean. Add freight, warehousing, fulfillment, and distribution margins, and that once-$25 game quickly becomes a $40 product. That's not a luxury upcharge; it's survival math.

Some people ask, "Why not manufacture in the U.S.?" I wish we could. But the infrastructure to support full-scale boardgame production – specialty dice making, die-cutting, custom plastic and wood components – doesn't meaningfully exist here yet. I've gotten quotes. I've talked to factories. Even when the willingness is there, the equipment, labor, and timelines simply aren't.

We aren't the only company facing this challenge. The entire board game industry is having very difficult conversations right now. For some, this might mean simplifying products or delaying launches. For others, it might mean walking away from titles that are no longer economically viable. And, for what I fear will be too many, it means closing down entirely.

Tariffs, when part of a long-term strategy to bolster domestic manufacturing, can be an effective tool. But that only works when there's a plan to build up the industries needed to take over production. There is no national plan in place to support manufacturing for the types of products we make. This isn't about steel and semiconductors. This is about paper goods, chipboard, wood tokens, plastic trays, and color-matched ink. These new tariffs are imposing huge costs without providing alternatives, and it's going to cost American consumers more at every level of the supply chain.

We want to be transparent with our community. This is real: Prices are going up. We're still determining how much and where.

If you're frustrated, you're not alone. We are too. And if you want to help, write to your elected officials. Ask them how these new policies help American creators and small businesses. Because right now, it feels like they don't.

We'll keep making games. But we'll be honest when the road gets harder, because we know you care about where your games come from – and about the people who make them.

*
I would also think that there is a limited pool of resources that could replace overseas production. If that pool of resources is not enough to provide all the production, the megacorps will hoover it up first, and the smaller companies will go bust.
Hope everyone reads this. Multiply it by millions of businesses.
 
I wonder what the US rules on the origin of goods is. Could you ship Vietnamese origin shoes through the UK and pay 10% instead of the 49% (or whatever it is).

Most countries will have rules in place to stop it, but with how haphazard these tariffs are they might not have thought of it.
No it’s from origin, China ship liads through Vietnam etc that’s why they put the tariffs on them
 
The US treasury secretary in his infinite wisdom is putting the market slumps down to deepseek a Chinese AI tool apparently more sophisticated than chatgpt.

Deepseek launched at the end of January, it made worldwide news and did instantly effect the tech markets back then but the US treasury secretary, the guy supposedly most tuned in to the markets is claiming it has taken over 2 months for the markets to react to this announcement and it's presumably purely coincidental that it's happened overnight and just so happens to line up with trumps tariffs announcements.

It's the equivalent of getting food poisoning and your racist doctor telling you it was that indian curry you had 2 months ago that's caused it and not the raw meat you ate last night.
 
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I wonder what the US rules on the origin of goods is. Could you ship Vietnamese origin shoes through the UK and pay 10% instead of the 49% (or whatever it is).

Most countries will have rules in place to stop it, but with how haphazard these tariffs are they might not have thought of it.
There could definitely be a market for shipping almost finished products to a market with cheap tax implications to do some finishing touches before sending them on to the States. Maybe open up a factory that laces up shoes.
 
Hope everyone reads this. Multiply it by millions of businesses.
It's like putting a congestion charge on your city without having any public transport in place, and then hoping that it will somehow magically appear.

But as always, populists have simple 'solutions' to complex problems and idiots eat it up.
 

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