xgorton
Well-Known Member
Fine margins,if we hung on for point at Forest we would be point in front of them now.
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Premier League Games | 12/13/14/16 April '25
- Thread starter MCFC1993
- Start date
SWPISHOME
Well-Known Member
Forest starting to fall apart at the right time.
Playing like they do will only stand you in good stead for so long.
Playing like they do will only stand you in good stead for so long.
Lovebitesandeveryfing
Well-Known Member
Let's say it's Chelsea and above all Newcastle breathing down our necks (ok, it's a whole posse in fact, but let that pass…).
Hadn't quite realised it, but I've just had a look at Chelsea's run-in, and on the face of it it's downright horrendous. Newcastle's is somewhat easier, but it's by no means completely benign. Their last two matches, in particular, are tricky. Of course, they've got two games in hand, and they're only two points behind. Those draws against the rags and Brighton have cost us so very dearly.
We can just squeak in, but we need a win or two on the road, I think.
No question, our two remaining games in April are a test. Everton away is now no gimme, far from it, and Villa at home could be an interesting one (you never know which Villa is going to turn up). But I think — I think — we can win everything in May, home and away, if we show anything like the steel and resolution we showed today.
Great result with Forest just now, which leaves me feeling more upbeat. Feeling a bit different about the semi-final, now. Are Forest finally running out of steam?
But we should be looking at who's behind us, rather than who's above.
Hadn't quite realised it, but I've just had a look at Chelsea's run-in, and on the face of it it's downright horrendous. Newcastle's is somewhat easier, but it's by no means completely benign. Their last two matches, in particular, are tricky. Of course, they've got two games in hand, and they're only two points behind. Those draws against the rags and Brighton have cost us so very dearly.
We can just squeak in, but we need a win or two on the road, I think.
No question, our two remaining games in April are a test. Everton away is now no gimme, far from it, and Villa at home could be an interesting one (you never know which Villa is going to turn up). But I think — I think — we can win everything in May, home and away, if we show anything like the steel and resolution we showed today.
Great result with Forest just now, which leaves me feeling more upbeat. Feeling a bit different about the semi-final, now. Are Forest finally running out of steam?
But we should be looking at who's behind us, rather than who's above.
Zero excuse for Murillo, but Everton break with 3 vs 1 and McNeil, although he's the one who steals the ball, almost fucks it up in the final pass - assist. Anyway, congratulations to Everton, their loyal away support will be delighted travelling back home...Forest should have dropped points against United as well.
As for Forest, nothing to take away from their impressive campaign, but you cannot rely on your luck forever...
SkyBlueFlux
Well-Known Member
Think Brighton are now too far back. Would need a lot of teams ahead of them to drop off completely, and they still have Newcastle, Spurs, Liverpool to play. The same will be true of Fulham if they lose on Monday.
By the end of the weekend it looks like it might be down to 3 places for 5 teams, and we'll be right in the middle of the pack.
I think the fact Forest play Chelsea on the last day of the season could end up being really important.
By the end of the weekend it looks like it might be down to 3 places for 5 teams, and we'll be right in the middle of the pack.
I think the fact Forest play Chelsea on the last day of the season could end up being really important.
Zero excuse for Murillo, but Everton break with 3 vs 1 and McNeil, although he's the one who steals the ball, almost fucks it up in the final pass - assist. Anyway, congratulations to Everton, their loyal away support will be delighted travelling back home...
As for Forest, nothing to take away from their impressive campaign, but you cannot rely on your luck forever...
They are outperforming virtually every metric that can be evaluated.
I know XG and XPoints is not everybody's cup of tea, but on expected points they are in 11th.
You cannot have the lowest possession in the PL and rely on counter attacks for an entire campaign, eventually you will get found out and come up short.
They had less possession than Everton at home, if they don't score first they are pretty much fucked.to be honest they are not very good. just lucky bigger teams have been rubbish this season
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xgorton
Well-Known Member
Let's hope the Rags get something at Newcastle.
Let's hope the Rags get something at Newcastle.
I just can't bring myself to do it.
xgorton
Well-Known Member
But,if it means champions league for us.I just can't bring myself to do it.
heslops barnet
Well-Known Member
Fingers crossedFeel there’s a good chance Forest implode from here and miss out on top 5 all together.
Lovebitesandeveryfing
Well-Known Member
Think Brighton are now too far back. Would need a lot of teams ahead of them to drop off completely, and they still have Newcastle, Spurs, Liverpool to play. The same will be true of Fulham if they lose on Monday.
By the end of the weekend it looks like it might be down to 3 places for 5 teams, and we'll be right in the middle of the pack.
I think the fact Forest play Chelsea on the last day of the season could end up being really important.
Granted, it's unimaginable that Chelsea won't beat Ipswich, and there's a bloody good chance Newcastle will beat United.
We won't be in the qualifying group by Monday. But we've just got to claw ourselves back into it every time. It's going to be yoyo stuff for the next six weeks.
I agree — it's three places for five teams. Arsenal will not fold — the top two are virtually a done deal.
That said, I will be very, very disappointed if what happened today doesn't give the lads a feelgood factor for the rest of the season. Above all, it was the way they did it, coming back from 2-0 down and then sweeping the opposition off the park.
That was something we hadn't seen for months and months.
SkyBlueFlux
Well-Known Member
They are outperforming virtually every metric that can be evaluated.
I know XG and XPoints is not everybody's cup of tea, but on expected points they are in 11th.
You cannot have the lowest possession in the PL and rely on counter attacks for an entire campaign, eventually you will get found out and come up short.
I've come to realise the problem with xG is that it's not really used appropriately by the media. In any single game, xG just looks way off and in the context of one match it's not really very useful - but the point is that over the timeline of seasons teams tend to revert to the mean.
To put that into context - this season is the first season since Pep arrived at the club that we haven't been top of the league based on xPoints. We haven't won the league every season, but the reason we've been so dominant since his arrival is because we are consistently the best performers in terms of xG/xGA and so even in "bad runs" we eventually revert to the mean and come out on top. It's an incredibly important long-term stat. It wouldn't surprise me if City's number one internal core measure of success is to ensure that even when we aren't winning, we are winning in xG.
Bit of a digression, but you are correct in your assessment. Teams can only stay lucky (or unlucky) for so long.
I don’t think they’ll implode but they are stuttering. We may well overtake them.Feel there’s a good chance Forest implode from here and miss out on top 5 all together.
They’re still flying. We must overtake Forest to be sure.Asensio missed two penalties for Villa. I'll take a wild guess, and say that he won't be taking their next one.
Lovebitesandeveryfing
Well-Known Member
I don’t think they’ll implode but they are stuttering. We may well overtake them.
So long as we overtake them at Wembley…
;-)
SkyBlueFlux
Well-Known Member
Granted, it's unimaginable that Chelsea won't beat Ipswich, and there's a bloody good chance Newcastle will beat United.
We won't be in the qualifying group by Monday. But we've just got to claw ourselves back into it every time. It's going to be yoyo stuff for the next six weeks.
I agree — it's three places for five teams. Arsenal will not fold — the top two are virtually a done deal.
That said, I will be very, very disappointed if what happened today doesn't give the lads a feelgood factor for the rest of the season. Above all, it was the way they did it, coming back from 2-0 down and then sweeping the opposition off the park.
That was something we hadn't seen for months and months.
I think the trap people fall into is looking at the fixture list and going "[Newcastle/Chelsea/Villa] have a game v [Leicester/Ipswich/Saints/Wolves etc.] - that's an automatic three points for them".
The teams vying for these Champions League places drop points >50% of the time. Fulham have dropped points in 58% of their games this season. Nobody assumed Leicester or Everton would get something today - but demonstrates the point, half the pack have dropped points.
That means that from the 6/7 remaining games for this group we can expect others to still drop plenty. I said a few months back I think we'll need about 65 to qualify, and that still feels about right.