bluethrunthru
Well-Known Member
I think you appear to be making the same mistake as those people who voted for remain who were incredulous at the outcome of the referendum, namely operating in an echo chamber to some extent.
There is a strong, solid rump of people who support Reform. I would guess about 15% of the electorate. And then there’s another cohort who would contemplate voting for them if things (in their eyes) continue to get worse and/or they feel the need to protest at the status quo. I’d put that figure about 10%. Which equals 25% on a good day. I think that is their ceiling, give or take, because I’d say the rest of the electorate would never contemplate voting for Reform under any circumstances and under FPTP this will present a huge obstacle to what you stridently predict to be a certain outcome.
The support for Reform is real and sustainable, but there is a limit to the number of people who will lend their support however ‘bad’ things get. I’d say about a third of ‘natural’ Tories are part of the grouping who would never vote Reform; left wing, liberal conservatives, who if the Conservative Party ceased to exist tomorrow would gravitate towards the LibDems because of their liberal sensibilities and the fact that they aren’t negatively affected by immigration overall.
I don’t think the sums add up for an outright majority for Reform for the foreseeable.
people are just getting giddy for a number of reasons but the reality is Reform have about 3% of all the council seats in England. Thats not a winning score by any measure