Will we win the league this season?

alexmcity said:
According to the understat xG model, City have been the best team in the PL so far, marginally better than Palace. How come? Well, we weren't that bad vs Spurs and Brighton, whereas Liverpool were lucky in several games. They haven't been better than us. Arsenal haven't been brilliant either. They couldn't create more chances than us at their ground despite being the fresher team (but if they beat Newcastle, then things change somewhat).

Many on here are heavily influenced by the actual results and leave little room for luck and other factors (like a short preseason and injuries). When Liverpool win, it's because they are good and bought expensive players. When we don't win, it's because we aren't good (Pep is finished, the players are old or lack quality, and so on).

We haven't been great by any means. But we have been really good after the international break. If Rodri stays fit, we'll compete.
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XG is limited because it assumes players' finishing ability is consistent throughout the league, likewise the goalkeeping.

Liverpool always outperform their XG because Salah and Alisson are both freakishly good.
 
blueste41 said:
Or we lost to 2 half decent teams and beat shit ones including a 10 man Napoli? Burnley, who are 17th, held their own against us for 60-70 minutes yesterday and the 5-1 flattered us. It reminds me of last seasons start where our results (8 wins and 2 draws) were papering over the cracks until mid October when we got just 1 win in 13.
Hope your right though.
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Games last for 90 mins plus injury time. Scorelines at 60-70 mins mean nothing.

Napoli hadn’t lost since February. Elite teams don’t fall to pieces when a man gets sent off and Napoli made a predictably good fist of thwarting our attacks until Phil and big Erl produced that moment of magic
 
Axel Freed said:
Games last for 90 mins plus injury time. Scorelines at 60-70 mins mean nothing.

Napoli hadn’t lost since February. Elite teams don’t fall to pieces when a man gets sent off and Napoli made a predictably good fist of thwarting our attacks until Phil and big Erl produced that moment of magic
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Napoli were top of Serie A at kick off tonight. AC Milan are beating them 2-0, though, and have gone above them on GD. They're no mugs.
 
Arsenal have been to anfield and Newcastle and played us at home and are well set. If we don’t win it o would rather them than Liverpool.
 
alexmcity said:
According to the understat xG model, City have been the best team in the PL so far, marginally better than Palace. How come? Well, we weren't that bad vs Spurs and Brighton, whereas Liverpool were lucky in several games. They haven't been better than us. Arsenal haven't been brilliant either. They couldn't create more chances than us at their ground despite being the fresher team (but if they beat Newcastle, then things change somewhat).

Many on here are heavily influenced by the actual results and leave little room for luck and other factors (like a short preseason and injuries). When Liverpool win, it's because they are good and bought expensive players. When we don't win, it's because we aren't good (Pep is finished, the players are old or lack quality, and so on).

We haven't been great by any means. But we have been really good after the international break. If Rodri stays fit, we'll compete.
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According to the only stat that matters, points, we've not been the best team in the PL so far.

I'd also disagree that "we weren't that bad" versus Spurs and Brighton. Never showed up versus Spurs, and the way we let the Brighton game slip away was alarming.

Much improved form since then but we're only 6 games in. Let's see how things look at Christmas.
 
No.

But looking at all the early contenders, I think we may have a punchers chance in the latter part of the season along with Chelsea & Spuds if we're within spitting distance of the Dippers & ArseAnal come March.

That's where experience & mentality will come into play. Progression is the most important thing for me this season, which is why I won't be too disappointed if we win nowt.
 
Too early to say but I think come Christmas I think we’ll be there or there abouts, bar Liverpool I don’t think there’s a team better than us, and I think our current crop has the potential to rank supreme over the longer term.
 
Bluewonder said:
XG is limited because it assumes players' finishing ability is consistent throughout the league, likewise the goalkeeping.

Liverpool always outperform their XG because Salah and Alisson are both freakishly good.
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Were freakishly good, Salah looks spent, looks like the inhaler use has taken its toll on him
 
CΛL said:
Too early to say but I think come Christmas I think we’ll be there or there abouts, bar Liverpool I don’t think there’s a team better than us, and I think our current crop has the potential to rank supreme over the longer term.
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Beat Liverpool and Newcastle in November and we go into new year top of the league in my opinion.

This season has all the hallmarks of 2020/21 where we equally started poorly yet won the league because we had a 15 game mid season winning run.
 
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