Russian invasion of Ukraine

SiMCFC said:
I honestly don't see the point, as soon as they give this revised plan to Russia they won't accept it anyway so it's back to square one surely?
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And IF putin would agree, it would be a safe sign that russia are in the ropes and we should take our offer off the table asap!

putin has told often enough he won't negotiate with a "Kiev Nazi regime", and that Ukraine shouldn't even exist. He's silent about both points now for whatever reason.
He would have to explain in detail what has changed his mind and why exactly we should trust him that russia will behave as a peaceful friendly neighbor from now on!?

Truth is, the reason for this mess is putin giving a shit on international law. First thing WE logically should add to a 28 point list is a regime change in fukcin moscow as point #1 if we all want to achieve a long lasting peace in and around Europe (and btw Africa, but that's a different topic).

putin still has no exit strategy. He's the superpower, russia see themselves as the superpower and a superpower is neither friendly nor will it make weak compromises. He will insist on his full scale targets - or he is in a weak position. We'll see.
 
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St.Pauli support said:
And IF putin would agree, it would be a safe sign that russia are in the ropes and we should take our offer off the table asap!

putin has told often enough he won't negotiate with a "Kiev Nazi regime", and that Ukraine shouldn't even exist. He's silent about both points now for whatever reason.
He would have to explain in detail what has changed his mind and why exactly we should trust him that russia will behave as a peaceful friendly neighbor from now on!?

Truth is, the reason for this mess is putin giving a shit on international law. First thing WE logically should add to a 28 point list is a regime change in fukcin moscow as point #1 if we all want to achieve a long lasting peace in and around Europe (and btw Africa, but that's a different topic).

putin still has no exit strategy. He's the superpower, russia see themselves as the superpower and a superpower is neither friendly nor will it make weak compromises. He will insist on his full scale targets - or he is in a weak position. We'll see.
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I don’t know why anybody bothers, Putin will ignore any treaty reached in his effort to recreate the Soviet empire.
 
KS55 said:
I don’t know why anybody bothers, Putin will ignore any treaty reached in his effort to recreate the Soviet empire.
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Putin's Russia is on its arse. I'm not convinced they can hold the military together for another 12 months. I think that is the only reason Putin hasn't shut this down. He knows that it's falling apart and wile he can't risk defeat he also can't risk the breakdown of the military.

Like I said previously Putin is looking at some difficult choices.
 
Gareth Barry Conlon said:
Putin's Russia is on its arse. I'm not convinced they can hold the military together for another 12 months. I think that is the only reason Putin hasn't shut this down. He knows that it's falling apart and wile he can't risk defeat he also can't risk the breakdown of the military.

Like I said previously Putin is looking at some difficult choices.
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He’s caused so much damage to Russia with this invasion and his inevitable doubling down, and that should be the starting point for any evaluation of the denouement to this conflict, and its aftermath.

People need to get past the notion of Russia ‘winning’ this conflict. In many ways they lost it a long time ago, and keeping what they have stolen doesn’t change that.

I think the soldiers returning home en masse will prove a huge issue in Russia for lots of reasons. It’s been an especially brutal campaign for Russian soldiers on the frontline and for what since the autumn of 2022?
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
He’s caused so much damage to Russia with this invasion and his inevitable doubling down, and that should be the starting point for any evaluation of the denouement to this conflict, and its aftermath.

People need to get past the notion of Russia ‘winning’ this conflict. In many ways they lost it a long time ago, and keeping what they have stolen doesn’t change that.
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If you ask who needs this war to end the most it's definitely Russia. The pressure on the front lines appears to be way down. The air attacks also down. Ukraine can go on. On the other hand Russia is in a mess. The domestic oil and gas industry is on its arse and they had economic troubles before that. It feels like Russia is deteriorating and the drone attacks are relentless. Its not going to get better.
 
Gareth Barry Conlon said:
If you ask who needs this war to end the most it's definitely Russia. The pressure on the front lines appears to be way down. The air attacks also down. Ukraine can go on. On the other hand Russia is in a mess. The domestic oil and gas industry is on its arse and they had economic troubles before that. It feels like Russia is deteriorating and the drone attacks are relentless. Its not going to get better.
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and no matter what, there's always going to be insurgency attacks in the occupied territories. Car bombs etc
 
Gareth Barry Conlon said:
If you ask who needs this war to end the most it's definitely Russia. The pressure on the front lines appears to be way down. The air attacks also down. Ukraine can go on. On the other hand Russia is in a mess. The domestic oil and gas industry is on its arse and they had economic troubles before that. It feels like Russia is deteriorating and the drone attacks are relentless. Its not going to get better.
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I agree with that, although the tactical pressure on the frontlines coming from Russia is relentless and I guess the Ukrainian lines could be liable to breaking at some point I guess, although I’d say that’s unlikely.

But in terms of the strategic dimension all the evidence points towards tRussia seriously struggling.
 
Russia is weakening, so Putin is leaning on his puppet Trump. Whispering in his ear tales of how he can claim to the world that he brokered peace and get everybody to stop talking about his noncey mate and all he has to do is pressure Ukraine into giving Russia what they cannot take themselves.
 
ninjamonkey said:
Russia is weakening, so Putin is leaning on his puppet Trump. Whispering in his ear tales of how he can claim to the world that he brokered peace and get everybody to stop talking about his noncey mate and all he has to do is pressure Ukraine into giving Russia what they cannot take themselves.
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Agree. If they were as strong as some would want us to believe, they would simply ignore any peace negotiations and simply crush Ukraine.

I think Putin is now desperate and, as you say, leaning on his US agent for some pressure to be put on Zelensky.

Hope Europe tells Trump to foxtrot and leave it to the grown ups to properly support Ukraine.
 
Comical that Trump gives Ukraine a deadline when he hasn't stuck to a single deadline that he has given Putin.
Putin really is making Trump look a complete fool, although I wondered if that is all part of the game. To show him up so much knowing full well that Trump will spit the dummy and come out playing the big man and claiming he wants to put America first in which case he cuts off all military aid to Ukraine.
A few Tomahawks/Taurus would work wonders now to really turn the screws on Russia.
 
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