Will we win the league this season? No

As great as winning away at Anfield was, I don't think our overall performance level was too dissimilar to previous weeks. The major difference being the 'rub of the green'. The Chelsea favourable ball bounce leading to the late equaliser, the Dalot non red card, Solanke foul and goal that he'll never score again in 10 lifetimes all were examples when our luck was out.

Arsenal are playing at a more consistent level with a far more methodical and controlled approach. Dirge to watch but effective at the minute. I'm hoping beating the scourers lifts the mood and confidence levels in the squad and fan base.

If we can use this to go on a run and apply pressure then who knows how close we can get. A full stadium at home and lots of noise will be a start.
Think I have to disagree a bit there. We were the better team in the first half yesterday, but no team is going to Anfield and dominating for 90 minutes so despite some of our horrendous 2nd half performances of late, Liverpool were always going to have a spell of dominance during the match. Sure, they had some good chances but so did we so no, there was no "rub if the green" - it was a thoroughly deserved away win.
 
15 to go:

Arsenal - 50 pointsCity - 46 pointsVilla - 46 points
Kairat (H) - CL - 28th JanGalatasaray (H) - CL - 28th JanRB Salzburg (H) - EL - 29th Jan
Leeds (A) - 31st JanSpurs (A) - 1st FebBrentford (H) - 1st Feb
Chelsea (H) - LC - 3rd Feb (3-2)Newcastle (H) - LC - 4th Feb (2-0)
Sunderland (H) - 7th FebLiverpool (A) - 8th FebBournemouth (A) - 7th Feb
Brentford (A) - 12th FebFulham (H) - 11th FebBrighton (H) - 11th Feb
Wigan (H) - FAC - 15th FebSalford (H) - FAC - 14th FebNewcastle (H) - FAC - 14th Feb
CL Playoff 1st leg - 17th/18th Feb
Spurs (A) - 22nd FebNewcastle (H) - 21st FebLeeds (H) - 21st Feb
CL Playoff 2nd leg - 24th/25th Feb
Chelsea (H) - 1st MarLeeds (A) - 28th FebWolves (A) - 27th Feb
Brighton (A) - 4th MarForest (H) - 4th MarChelsea (H) - 4th Mar
FA Cup 5th Ro - 7th MarFA Cup 5th Ro - 7th MarFA Cup 5th Ro - 7th Mar
CL Ro16 1st leg - 10th/11th MarCL Ro16 1st leg - 10th/11th MarEL Ro16 1st leg -12th Mar
Everton (H) - 15th MarWest Ham (A) - 14th MarUnited (A) - 14th Mar
CL Ro16 2nd leg - 17th/18th MarCL Ro16 2nd leg - 17th/18th MarEL Ro16 2nd leg - 19th Mar
Wolves (A) - 21st Mar*Palace (H) - 21st Mar*West Ham (H) - 21st Mar*
City (N) - LC Final - 22nd MarArsenal (N) - LC Final - 22nd Mar
FA Cup QF - 4th AprFA Cup QF - 4th AprFA Cup QF - 4th Apr
CL QF 1st leg - 7th/8th AprCL QF 1st leg - 7th/8th AprEL QF 1st leg - 9th Apr
Bournemouth (H) - 11th Apr*Chelsea (A) - 11th Apr*Forest (A) - 11th Apr*
CL QF 2nd leg - 14th/15th AprCL QF 2nd leg - 14th/15th AprEL QF 2nd leg - 16th Apr
City (A) - 18th Apr*Arsenal (H) - 18th Apr*Sunderland (H) - 18th Apr*
Newcastle (H) - 25th Apr*Burnley (A) - 25th Apr*Fulham (A) - 25th Apr*
FA Cup SF - 25th AprFA Cup SF - 25th AprFA Cup SF - 25th Apr
CL SF 1st leg - 28th/29th AprCL SF 1st leg - 28th/29th AprEL SF 1st leg - 30th Apr
Fulham (H) - 2nd May*Everton (A) - 2nd May*Spurs (H) - 2nd May*
CL SF 2nd leg - 5th/6th MayCL SF 2nd leg - 5th/6th MayEL SF 2nd leg - 7th May
West Ham (A) - 9th May*Brentford (H) - 9th May*Burnley (A) - 9th May*
FA Cup Final - 16th MayFA Cup Final - 16th MayFA Cup Final - 16th May
Burnley (H) - 17th May*Bournemouth (A) - 17th May*Liverpool (H) - 17th May*
EL Final - 20th May
Palace (A) - 24th MayVilla (H) - 24th MayCity (A) - 24th May
CL Final - 30th MayCL Final - 30th May

*Date may change.

Potentially more cup games than league games left, it'll be some season if that pans out. The colour coding doesn't really mean much because all 3 teams have dropped unexpected points in the last few weeks, it's a rough guide.

The next 2 league games are so important for us, just need to stay in touch.

13 to go:


Arsenal - 56 pointsCity - 50 pointsVilla - 47 points
Kairat (H) - CL - 28th JanGalatasaray (H) - CL - 28th JanRB Salzburg (H) - EL - 29th Jan
Leeds (A) - 31st JanSpurs (A) - 1st FebBrentford (H) - 1st Feb
Chelsea (H) - LC - 3rd Feb (3-2)Newcastle (H) - LC - 4th Feb (2-0)
Sunderland (H) - 7th FebLiverpool (A) - 8th FebBournemouth (A) - 7th Feb
Brentford (A) - 12th FebFulham (H) - 11th FebBrighton (H) - 11th Feb
Wigan (H) - FAC - 15th FebSalford (H) - FAC - 14th FebNewcastle (H) - FAC - 14th Feb
Wolves (A) - 18th FebCL Playoff 1st leg - 17th/18th Feb
Spurs (A) - 22nd FebNewcastle (H) - 21st FebLeeds (H) - 21st Feb
CL Playoff 2nd leg - 24th/25th Feb
Chelsea (H) - 1st MarLeeds (A) - 28th FebWolves (A) - 27th Feb
Brighton (A) - 4th MarForest (H) - 4th MarChelsea (H) - 4th Mar
FA Cup 5th Ro - 7th MarFA Cup 5th Ro - 7th MarFA Cup 5th Ro - 7th Mar
CL Ro16 1st leg - 10th/11th MarCL Ro16 1st leg - 10th/11th MarEL Ro16 1st leg -12th Mar
Everton (H) - 15th MarWest Ham (A) - 14th MarUnited (A) - 14th Mar
CL Ro16 2nd leg - 17th/18th MarCL Ro16 2nd leg - 17th/18th MarEL Ro16 2nd leg - 19th Mar
Wolves (A) - 21st Mar*Palace (H) - 21st Mar*West Ham (H) - 21st Mar*
City (N) - LC Final - 22nd MarArsenal (N) - LC Final - 22nd Mar
FA Cup QF - 4th AprFA Cup QF - 4th AprFA Cup QF - 4th Apr
CL QF 1st leg - 7th/8th AprCL QF 1st leg - 7th/8th AprEL QF 1st leg - 9th Apr
Bournemouth (H) - 11th Apr*Chelsea (A) - 11th Apr*Forest (A) - 11th Apr*
CL QF 2nd leg - 14th/15th AprCL QF 2nd leg - 14th/15th AprEL QF 2nd leg - 16th Apr
City (A) - 18th Apr*Arsenal (H) - 18th Apr*Sunderland (H) - 18th Apr*
Newcastle (H) - 25th Apr*Burnley (A) - 25th Apr*Fulham (A) - 25th Apr*
FA Cup SF - 25th AprFA Cup SF - 25th AprFA Cup SF - 25th Apr
CL SF 1st leg - 28th/29th AprCL SF 1st leg - 28th/29th AprEL SF 1st leg - 30th Apr
Fulham (H) - 2nd May*Everton (A) - 2nd May*Spurs (H) - 2nd May*
CL SF 2nd leg - 5th/6th MayCL SF 2nd leg - 5th/6th MayEL SF 2nd leg - 7th May
West Ham (A) - 9th May*Brentford (H) - 9th May*Burnley (A) - 9th May*
FA Cup Final - 16th MayFA Cup Final - 16th MayFA Cup Final - 16th May
Burnley (H) - 17th May*Bournemouth (A) - 17th May*Liverpool (H) - 17th May*
EL Final - 20th May
Palace (A) - 24th MayVilla (H) - 24th MayCity (A) - 24th May
CL Final - 30th MayCL Final - 30th May


2 league games since last update, important notes:
- 2 extra CL games avoided for City.
- 2 points dropped for City but 2 hard games ticked off.
- 5 points dropped for Villa and some significant injuries.
- Arsenal's game v Wolves (A) has moved from March 21st to Feb 18th because of the League Cup Final. So they'll be ahead 1 game for a while. Unfortunately we were due to play one of the 3 English sides in a European playoff, so our game v Palace can't move to the same mid-week!


I said it was doable if we were within 6 after Liverpool...well we are, so here we go.

I'll add another caveat now. I think we need 15 points from our next 15, 13 probably still acceptable but we need to land another big punch, like the Anfield result and I think we need to be in a position to get 1st when we play them at the Etihad. They have a kind run of games to finish the season, we don't:

ArsenalCity
Brentford (A)Fulham (H)
Wolves (A)
Spurs (A)Newcastle (H)
Chelsea (H)Leeds (A)
Brighton (A)Forest (H)
Everton (H)West Ham (A)

I think on their day Newcastle and Leeds can be tricky, although we have a great record against Newcastle.
If they get 18/18 in the same time period, you just have to say fair play.
 
Think I have to disagree a bit there. We were the better team in the first half yesterday, but no team is going to Anfield and dominating for 90 minutes so despite some of our horrendous 2nd half performances of late, Liverpool were always going to have a spell of dominance during the match. Sure, they had some good chances but so did we so no, there was no "rub if the green" - it was a thoroughly deserved away win.
You could argue that toss all day long for me the crucial thing is it has lifted a big heavy monkey off our backs and as such should prove a massive psychological boost. The big question of course remains unanswered. Can we build upon this win and apply serious pressure on Arenal. The experience of the season so far suggests maybe not. But we are back in the race and if we keep the gap at 6 or under until we play them then all is up for grabs. Perhaps the CF might prove crucial in terms of confidence moving into the final weeks. One things for sure, it all looks a lot more interesting then it did yesterday evening with 80 mins on the clock
 
Arsenal are not head and shoulders above anyone!

They have dropped 7 points in their last five league games while convincing themselves that they will win the league! and tell everyone how good they are!

City have the same 7 points in five games and are fuming coz we have been shit!

They are 6 points in front of us with a long way to go! they are not Head and Shoulders above us!
I understand what you're saying but we have too many players not performing. If it wasn't for Donarumma this season we would have been a lot further behind Arsenal.
 
Still think arsenal win the title and do it comfortably BUT results can make a difference and we where dead and buried when the Magyar scored for Liverpool but the character we showed was that off champions so if arsenal do wobble we have now got to be ready and play into form .
Comfortably? Come on Paul…
 
As great as winning away at Anfield was, I don't think our overall performance level was too dissimilar to previous weeks. The major difference being the 'rub of the green'. The Chelsea favourable ball bounce leading to the late equaliser, the Dalot non red card, Solanke foul and goal that he'll never score again in 10 lifetimes all were examples when our luck was out.

Arsenal are playing at a more consistent level with a far more methodical and controlled approach. Dirge to watch but effective at the minute. I'm hoping beating the scourers lifts the mood and confidence levels in the squad and fan base.

If we can use this to go on a run and apply pressure then who knows how close we can get. A full stadium at home and lots of noise will be a start.
Arsenal have also not won a trophy in five years? Methodical is fine but how does it stand up against pressure?
 
I understand what you're saying but we have too many players not performing. If it wasn't for Donarumma this season we would have been a lot further behind Arsenal.
Shock horror world class goal keeper contributes to team accumulating points
 
We have all seen the type of team required to win the premier league and I still think this team isn’t capable on previous evidence.

However a win like the one this weekend can do strange things.
 
Think I have to disagree a bit there. We were the better team in the first half yesterday, but no team is going to Anfield and dominating for 90 minutes so despite some of our horrendous 2nd half performances of late, Liverpool were always going to have a spell of dominance during the match. Sure, they had some good chances but so did we so no, there was no "rub if the green" - it was a thoroughly deserved away win.
Yeah that's fair enough, rub of the green probably not quite the right phrase. It's just the elements in the game that go for you. We 100% deserved to win.
 
We had the chance, but also we lost Gvardiol, Dias and Gonzalez due to injuries, Doku as well. Haaland and Foden lost form due to being overplayed in December (because we didn't have Marmoush, Semenyo and Doku).
Thats all part of a football season and we have been badly hit with injuries. Everything you say makes sense but on the other hand, we have not gained any ground on arsenal.
They have to be the more content team as they have increased their lead on villa and ourselves since Xmas.
Yesterday's result may be a psychological blow to them but there is nothing to suggest that yet.
 
Thats all part of a football season and we have been badly hit with injuries. Everything you say makes sense but on the other hand, we have not gained any ground on arsenal.
They have to be the more content team as they have increased their lead on villa and ourselves since Xmas.
Yesterday's result may be a psychological blow to them but there is nothing to suggest that yet.

I think it's a serious blow. But only time can tell.

Statistically (xG), they haven't outperformed us so far. And we have improved our squad in January. Time will tell.
 
13 to go:


Arsenal - 56 pointsCity - 50 pointsVilla - 47 points
Kairat (H) - CL - 28th JanGalatasaray (H) - CL - 28th JanRB Salzburg (H) - EL - 29th Jan
Leeds (A) - 31st JanSpurs (A) - 1st FebBrentford (H) - 1st Feb
Chelsea (H) - LC - 3rd Feb (3-2)Newcastle (H) - LC - 4th Feb (2-0)
Sunderland (H) - 7th FebLiverpool (A) - 8th FebBournemouth (A) - 7th Feb
Brentford (A) - 12th FebFulham (H) - 11th FebBrighton (H) - 11th Feb
Wigan (H) - FAC - 15th FebSalford (H) - FAC - 14th FebNewcastle (H) - FAC - 14th Feb
Wolves (A) - 18th FebCL Playoff 1st leg - 17th/18th Feb
Spurs (A) - 22nd FebNewcastle (H) - 21st FebLeeds (H) - 21st Feb
CL Playoff 2nd leg - 24th/25th Feb
Chelsea (H) - 1st MarLeeds (A) - 28th FebWolves (A) - 27th Feb
Brighton (A) - 4th MarForest (H) - 4th MarChelsea (H) - 4th Mar
FA Cup 5th Ro - 7th MarFA Cup 5th Ro - 7th MarFA Cup 5th Ro - 7th Mar
CL Ro16 1st leg - 10th/11th MarCL Ro16 1st leg - 10th/11th MarEL Ro16 1st leg -12th Mar
Everton (H) - 15th MarWest Ham (A) - 14th MarUnited (A) - 14th Mar
CL Ro16 2nd leg - 17th/18th MarCL Ro16 2nd leg - 17th/18th MarEL Ro16 2nd leg - 19th Mar
Wolves (A) - 21st Mar*Palace (H) - 21st Mar*West Ham (H) - 21st Mar*
City (N) - LC Final - 22nd MarArsenal (N) - LC Final - 22nd Mar
FA Cup QF - 4th AprFA Cup QF - 4th AprFA Cup QF - 4th Apr
CL QF 1st leg - 7th/8th AprCL QF 1st leg - 7th/8th AprEL QF 1st leg - 9th Apr
Bournemouth (H) - 11th Apr*Chelsea (A) - 11th Apr*Forest (A) - 11th Apr*
CL QF 2nd leg - 14th/15th AprCL QF 2nd leg - 14th/15th AprEL QF 2nd leg - 16th Apr
City (A) - 18th Apr*Arsenal (H) - 18th Apr*Sunderland (H) - 18th Apr*
Newcastle (H) - 25th Apr*Burnley (A) - 25th Apr*Fulham (A) - 25th Apr*
FA Cup SF - 25th AprFA Cup SF - 25th AprFA Cup SF - 25th Apr
CL SF 1st leg - 28th/29th AprCL SF 1st leg - 28th/29th AprEL SF 1st leg - 30th Apr
Fulham (H) - 2nd May*Everton (A) - 2nd May*Spurs (H) - 2nd May*
CL SF 2nd leg - 5th/6th MayCL SF 2nd leg - 5th/6th MayEL SF 2nd leg - 7th May
West Ham (A) - 9th May*Brentford (H) - 9th May*Burnley (A) - 9th May*
FA Cup Final - 16th MayFA Cup Final - 16th MayFA Cup Final - 16th May
Burnley (H) - 17th May*Bournemouth (A) - 17th May*Liverpool (H) - 17th May*
EL Final - 20th May
Palace (A) - 24th MayVilla (H) - 24th MayCity (A) - 24th May
CL Final - 30th MayCL Final - 30th May


2 league games since last update, important notes:
- 2 extra CL games avoided for City.
- 2 points dropped for City but 2 hard games ticked off.
- 5 points dropped for Villa and some significant injuries.
- Arsenal's game v Wolves (A) has moved from March 21st to Feb 18th because of the League Cup Final. So they'll be ahead 1 game for a while. Unfortunately we were due to play one of the 3 English sides in a European playoff, so our game v Palace can't move to the same mid-week!


I said it was doable if we were within 6 after Liverpool...well we are, so here we go.

I'll add another caveat now. I think we need 15 points from our next 15, 13 probably still acceptable but we need to land another big punch, like the Anfield result and I think we need to be in a position to get 1st when we play them at the Etihad. They have a kind run of games to finish the season, we don't:

ArsenalCity
Brentford (A)Fulham (H)
Wolves (A)
Spurs (A)Newcastle (H)
Chelsea (H)Leeds (A)
Brighton (A)Forest (H)
Everton (H)West Ham (A)

I think on their day Newcastle and Leeds can be tricky, although we have a great record against Newcastle.
If they get 18/18 in the same time period, you just have to say fair play.

13 games to go so lots can change, and it's critical to keep pressure on and to do so I don't think we can afford to drop any more points. We've got to be in a position where we go above them if we beat them at our place.

Based on their results this season, if you make a conservative guess they win 8, draw 3 and lose 2 (incl to us) of their final 13 games that's 27pts and they finish on 83.

For us that's 11 wins required.

They might have dropped plenty already but it's going to take a dramatic upturn in our results to challenge them, or a major decline in theirs. The latter only happens if we're breathing down their neck. It would also be a big confidence boost to beat them in the cup final.
 
ext 6 games includes almost all harder fixtures for Arse left apart from the Etihad game. if we dont reduce the gap in nnext 6 rounds then this is not happening. and we need to go on a winning run finally and the fixture lisst allows for it. Fulham h, Newcastle h next two, absolute must wins. that would be 3 games won in a row something we really need. that should also reduce gap to 4 points imo and build a bit of gap from the likes of Villa, Chelsea, rags.
 
Ric has said if we win it and this thread turns into a classic i can mod the politics forum. Come on City.
 
You know what would be better than winning the league?... (we've done it loads of times)... It would be putting thousands and thousands of bellend tarquins into a summer of grieving and in many cases into therapy
 
i hope we win it on goal difference in the last minute with an own goal againt villa having been 5-0 down at half time.
 

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