Will we win the league this season? No

[Dialog]

 

[Alfie Budd]

We've been there before with games in hand until late in the season. Concern is we end up with a Saturday / Tuesday / Thursday / Sunday week.

I'm still not convinced we're ready to go on a long run yet, but maybe a full week without a game next week changes things. If we do manage a consistent run, I think we overtake them so despite the 4 point gap I think it's in our hands.

I don't think the four games in a week scenario is a possibility unless there is bad weather. I expect the Palace game will be played in late April* and that still leaves two free midweeks in May should we have games moved due to both the FA Cup SF and final.

*Could be earlier than that if both ourselves and Palace go out of Europe sooner rather than later.

 

[117 M34]

I don't think any team deserve to win it this season.
Will be great if we can manage to win it but would comfortably be our worst title winning team of PL era.

 

[MCFC1993]

13 to go:

Arsenal - 56 points	City - 50 points	Villa - 47 points
Kairat (H) - CL - 28th Jan	Galatasaray (H) - CL - 28th Jan	RB Salzburg (H) - EL - 29th Jan
Leeds (A) - 31st Jan	Spurs (A) - 1st Feb	Brentford (H) - 1st Feb
Chelsea (H) - LC - 3rd Feb (3-2)	Newcastle (H) - LC - 4th Feb (2-0)
Sunderland (H) - 7th Feb	Liverpool (A) - 8th Feb	Bournemouth (A) - 7th Feb
Brentford (A) - 12th Feb	Fulham (H) - 11th Feb	Brighton (H) - 11th Feb
Wigan (H) - FAC - 15th Feb	Salford (H) - FAC - 14th Feb	Newcastle (H) - FAC - 14th Feb
Wolves (A) - 18th Feb	CL Playoff 1st leg - 17th/18th Feb
Spurs (A) - 22nd Feb	Newcastle (H) - 21st Feb	Leeds (H) - 21st Feb
	CL Playoff 2nd leg - 24th/25th Feb
Chelsea (H) - 1st Mar	Leeds (A) - 28th Feb	Wolves (A) - 27th Feb
Brighton (A) - 4th Mar	Forest (H) - 4th Mar	Chelsea (H) - 4th Mar
FA Cup 5th Ro - 7th Mar	FA Cup 5th Ro - 7th Mar	FA Cup 5th Ro - 7th Mar
CL Ro16 1st leg - 10th/11th Mar	CL Ro16 1st leg - 10th/11th Mar	EL Ro16 1st leg -12th Mar
Everton (H) - 15th Mar	West Ham (A) - 14th Mar	United (A) - 14th Mar
CL Ro16 2nd leg - 17th/18th Mar	CL Ro16 2nd leg - 17th/18th Mar	EL Ro16 2nd leg - 19th Mar
Wolves (A) - 21st Mar*	Palace (H) - 21st Mar*	West Ham (H) - 21st Mar*
City (N) - LC Final - 22nd Mar	Arsenal (N) - LC Final - 22nd Mar
FA Cup QF - 4th Apr	FA Cup QF - 4th Apr	FA Cup QF - 4th Apr
CL QF 1st leg - 7th/8th Apr	CL QF 1st leg - 7th/8th Apr	EL QF 1st leg - 9th Apr
Bournemouth (H) - 11th Apr*	Chelsea (A) - 11th Apr*	Forest (A) - 11th Apr*
CL QF 2nd leg - 14th/15th Apr	CL QF 2nd leg - 14th/15th Apr	EL QF 2nd leg - 16th Apr
City (A) - 18th Apr*	Arsenal (H) - 18th Apr*	Sunderland (H) - 18th Apr*
Newcastle (H) - 25th Apr*	Burnley (A) - 25th Apr*	Fulham (A) - 25th Apr*
FA Cup SF - 25th Apr	FA Cup SF - 25th Apr	FA Cup SF - 25th Apr
CL SF 1st leg - 28th/29th Apr	CL SF 1st leg - 28th/29th Apr	EL SF 1st leg - 30th Apr
Fulham (H) - 2nd May*	Everton (A) - 2nd May*	Spurs (H) - 2nd May*
CL SF 2nd leg - 5th/6th May	CL SF 2nd leg - 5th/6th May	EL SF 2nd leg - 7th May
West Ham (A) - 9th May*	Brentford (H) - 9th May*	Burnley (A) - 9th May*
FA Cup Final - 16th May	FA Cup Final - 16th May	FA Cup Final - 16th May
Burnley (H) - 17th May*	Bournemouth (A) - 17th May*	Liverpool (H) - 17th May*
		EL Final - 20th May
Palace (A) - 24th May	Villa (H) - 24th May	City (A) - 24th May
CL Final - 30th May	CL Final - 30th May

2 league games since last update, important notes:
- 2 extra CL games avoided for City.
- 2 points dropped for City but 2 hard games ticked off.
- 5 points dropped for Villa and some significant injuries.
- Arsenal's game v Wolves (A) has moved from March 21st to Feb 18th because of the League Cup Final. So they'll be ahead 1 game for a while. Unfortunately we were due to play one of the 3 English sides in a European playoff, so our game v Palace can't move to the same mid-week!


I said it was doable if we were within 6 after Liverpool...well we are, so here we go.

I'll add another caveat now. I think we need 15 points from our next 15, 13 probably still acceptable but we need to land another big punch, like the Anfield result and I think we need to be in a position to get 1st when we play them at the Etihad. They have a kind run of games to finish the season, we don't:

Arsenal	City
Brentford (A)	Fulham (H)
Wolves (A)
Spurs (A)	Newcastle (H)
Chelsea (H)	Leeds (A)
Brighton (A)	Forest (H)
Everton (H)	West Ham (A)

I think on their day Newcastle and Leeds can be tricky, although we have a great record against Newcastle.
If they get 18/18 in the same time period, you just have to say fair play.

Update

12 to go:

Arsenal - 57 points	City - 53 points	Villa - 50 points
Kairat (H) - CL - 28th Jan	Galatasaray (H) - CL - 28th Jan	RB Salzburg (H) - EL - 29th Jan
Leeds (A) - 31st Jan	Spurs (A) - 1st Feb	Brentford (H) - 1st Feb
Chelsea (H) - LC - 3rd Feb (3-2)	Newcastle (H) - LC - 4th Feb (2-0)
Sunderland (H) - 7th Feb	Liverpool (A) - 8th Feb	Bournemouth (A) - 7th Feb
Brentford (A) - 12th Feb	Fulham (H) - 11th Feb	Brighton (H) - 11th Feb
Wigan (H) - FAC - 15th Feb	Salford (H) - FAC - 14th Feb	Newcastle (H) - FAC - 14th Feb
Wolves (A) - 18th Feb	CL Playoff 1st leg - 17th/18th Feb
Spurs (A) - 22nd Feb	Newcastle (H) - 21st Feb	Leeds (H) - 21st Feb
CL Playoff 2nd leg - 24th/25th Feb
Chelsea (H) - 1st Mar	Leeds (A) - 28th Feb	Wolves (A) - 27th Feb
Brighton (A) - 4th Mar	Forest (H) - 4th Mar	Chelsea (H) - 4th Mar
FA Cup 5th Ro - 7th Mar	FA Cup 5th Ro - 7th Mar	FA Cup 5th Ro - 7th Mar
CL Ro16 1st leg - 10th/11th Mar	CL Ro16 1st leg - 10th/11th Mar	EL Ro16 1st leg -12th Mar
Everton (H) - 15th Mar	West Ham (A) - 14th Mar	United (A) - 14th Mar
CL Ro16 2nd leg - 17th/18th Mar	CL Ro16 2nd leg - 17th/18th Mar	EL Ro16 2nd leg - 19th Mar
Wolves (A) - 21st Mar*	Palace (H) - 21st Mar*	West Ham (H) - 21st Mar*
City (N) - LC Final - 22nd Mar	Arsenal (N) - LC Final - 22nd Mar
FA Cup QF - 4th Apr	FA Cup QF - 4th Apr	FA Cup QF - 4th Apr
CL QF 1st leg - 7th/8th Apr	CL QF 1st leg - 7th/8th Apr	EL QF 1st leg - 9th Apr
Bournemouth (H) - 11th Apr*	Chelsea (A) - 11th Apr*	Forest (A) - 11th Apr*
CL QF 2nd leg - 14th/15th Apr	CL QF 2nd leg - 14th/15th Apr	EL QF 2nd leg - 16th Apr
City (A) - 18th Apr*	Arsenal (H) - 18th Apr*	Sunderland (H) - 18th Apr*
Newcastle (H) - 25th Apr*	Burnley (A) - 25th Apr*	Fulham (A) - 25th Apr*
FA Cup SF - 25th Apr	FA Cup SF - 25th Apr	FA Cup SF - 25th Apr
CL SF 1st leg - 28th/29th Apr	CL SF 1st leg - 28th/29th Apr	EL SF 1st leg - 30th Apr
Fulham (H) - 2nd May*	Everton (A) - 2nd May*	Spurs (H) - 2nd May*
CL SF 2nd leg - 5th/6th May	CL SF 2nd leg - 5th/6th May	EL SF 2nd leg - 7th May
West Ham (A) - 9th May*	Brentford (H) - 9th May*	Burnley (A) - 9th May*
FA Cup Final - 16th May	FA Cup Final - 16th May	FA Cup Final - 16th May
Burnley (H) - 17th May*	Bournemouth (A) - 17th May*	Liverpool (H) - 17th May*
EL Final - 20th May
Palace (A) - 24th May	Villa (H) - 24th May	City (A) - 24th May
CL Final - 30th May	CL Final - 30th May

3 points for City and Villa, Arsenal slip up.

Nice FA Cup break before Arsenal play their extra game that got moved for the LC Final.

All eyes on the new Spurs manager, if they don't want that lot to win it, they need to show up a week on Sunday.

 

[citytill1die84]

No , we haven't.
They were 2 points ahead of us 8 games ago and now they are 4.
We have got 13 points and they have got 15.
They have 4 wins to our 3.

After the derby defeat they had a chance to go 9 clear, they failed. I was more or less saying our form hasn't been good and yet we seem to have caught up I didn't look at Arsenal and compare results.

Since that derby defeat the league has swung massively and the gap has been closed.

 

[Pablo ZZZ Peroni]

City in a stonger position, just, compared to 22/23.

In 22/23 we were 5 points behind after 26 games. Peak gap was 8 points behind.

So now in 25/26 we are 4 points behind after 26 games. Peak gap was 7 points behind.

 

[citytill1die84]

I don't think any team deserve to win it this season.
Will be great if we can manage to win it but would comfortably be our worst title winning team of PL era.

Why would it be our worst?

Pep changing a near entire squad in 12 months and winning a title would be some mean feat especially with the squad Arsenal have and the amount defending champions Liverpool spent in the summer.

A title is a title I don't care how we get it as long as we do.

 

[Pablo ZZZ Peroni]

I don't think the four games in a week scenario is a possibility unless there is bad weather. I expect the Palace game will be played in late April* and that still leaves two free midweeks in May should we have games moved due to both the FA Cup SF and final.

*Could be earlier than that if both ourselves and Palace go out of Europe sooner rather than later.

Also could be 4/5 April if we don't make it to quarter final of the FA Cup.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

If Arsenal’s form in 2026 continues (unlikely but you never know, they could start to break big time), we’d be looking at them finishing on 77-78 points.

So 8 wins, 1 draw needed out of 12.

In that scenario, Villa would likely be the competition.

The big asterisk to that is that our form in 2026 has been functionally identical.

But momentum is a funny thing.

 

[Mad_fer_it]

City in a stonger position, just, compared to 22/23.

In 22/23 we were 5 points behind after 26 games. Peak gap was 8 points behind.

So now in 25/26 we are 4 points behind after 26 games. Peak gap was 7 points behind.

'Kin ell. We were 5 points being in the treble winning season?! Did not realise this. My memory is awful. Good news for us though if we can invoke the spirit of that season.

 

[Pollocks OG]

They have now given us more than a faint scent trail of the sexy stuff, and more like a giant whiff of the gusset.

Hahahhahaha

 

[WEMBLEY76]

There will be lots of blud famming in Islington..

 

[Toney’s bookie]

Massive comeback win at our graveyard ground. Players coming back to boost the squad just at the right time. Bench unrecognisable compared with 6 weeks ago giving options for change and rotation.

It’s on.

 

[Xhavenjoe]

After the derby defeat they had a chance to go 9 clear, they failed. I was more or less saying our form hasn't been good and yet we seem to have caught up I didn't look at Arsenal and compare results.

Since that derby defeat the league has swung massively and the gap has been closed.

The momentum is with us in the recent games alright.
spurs, Chelsea, rags and Brighton were shocking results for us and not so long ago so its been swings and roundabouts since the new year.
Its just that someone mentioned we have dine better than them over the the last 8 games but we haven't.
Probably going to continue like this until the end of the season.
Villa still hanging around too.

 

[Alfie Budd]

I think it's now officially acceptable to rename this thread Title Race 2025-26.
But I'm happy for it to remain as it is if people think that may jinx it.

 

[Xhavenjoe]

You didn't get it?

I get it and understand how games in hand work too.

 

[St Helens Blue (Exiled)]

Those latte drinking tarquin cunts are bottling it.

From gloating at 1645hrs on Saturday that they were going to be 9 clear to being only 4 clear this evening is a right fucking result.
True they will beat Wolves comfortably but I can genuineley see that game in April as being an absolute winner takes all.
Bring it on.

 

[Donmcfc]

If Arsenal’s form in 2026 continues (unlikely but you never know, they could start to break big time), we’d be looking at them finishing on 77-78 points.

So 8 wins, 1 draw needed out of 12.

In that scenario, Villa would likely be the competition.

The big asterisk to that is that our form in 2026 has been functionally identical.

But momentum is a funny thing.

It's comedy you're thinking of.

 

[noseve]

I’d actually prefer if they were still 3 points ahead with 5 games to go. The weight of expectation will crush them.

That's after we play them, though - let's say with 6 to go...

 

[Corky]

28% chance.