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Deleted member 77198
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We do miss a criminal amount of chances.
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Expected Goals Table (and why we are behind in the title race.)
- Thread starter blueste41
- Start date
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Deleted member 77198
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Liverpool had 4 good chances and 12 shots in the game yesterday, we had 7 good chances and 18 shots.
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kaz7
Well-Known Member
Expected goals is like looking into a crystal ball,it's bollocks
Expected goals is like looking into a crystal ball,it's bollocks
Not surprising that you'd think that, but it's a statistic used in all top clubs precisely because it's not bollocks.
Not surprising that you'd think that, but it's a statistic used in all top clubs precisely because it's not bollocks.
How do they use it?
At what point do you make the decision/decimal about it being expected?
How do they use it?
At what point do you make the decision/decimal about it being expected?
I suppose it must vary from club to club how much each manager uses and is guided by their analytics department, but all aalysts love it, and many of the pioneers of it are ow at Opta or running places like StatsBomb who are hired by clubs especially for their analytics.
The decimal number is taken from a database of millions of shots taken from that exact position. if 5% of shots taken from that spot go in, the xG is 0.05.
rickmcfc
Well-Known Member
Christ we are sounding like them
I suppose it varies from club to club how much each manager uses and is guided by their analytics department, but all aalysts love it, and many of the pioneers of it are ow at Opta or running places like StatsBomb who are hired by clubs especially for their analyitics.
The decimal number is taken from a database of millions of shots taken from that exact position. if 5% of shots taken from that spot go in, the xG is 0.05.
That is what I was getting at, like serge at Sunderland in the cup, no keeper 99.9% certain of scoring, but doesn't shoot when 3 yards wants it to come right down, ends up getting tackled without shooting. Worst miss I have ever seen, surely at least 0.95 expected but no shot.
Also thought stuff like opta and expected goals were more for fans as they are pretty basic. i know city hire a lot of staff to watch games, normally the last 9 of any opponent on video to analyse.
That is what I was getting at, like serge at Sunderland in the cup, no keeper 99.9% certain of scoring, but doesn't shoot when 3 yards wants it to come right down, ends up getting tackled without shooting. Worst miss I have ever seen, surely at least 0.95 expected but no shot.
Also thought stuff like opta and expected goals were more for fans as they are pretty basic. i know city hire a lot of staff to watch games, normally the last 9 of any opponent on video to analyse.
Yeah that's true, it's not the perfect stat for one offs, it's main use is in extended periods where those anomalies become less meaningful.
This is a good article on some of the flaws, and shows the difference between what fans can see online vs. the kind of stuff clubs get.
https://statsbomb.com/2018/05/the-dual-life-of-expected-goals-part-2/
Pingu the Penguin
Well-Known Member
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- 29 Sep 2009
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The expected goals measure had us as the winner yesterday (I think it was 1.3 v 1.48 or something)