COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[domalino]

That would miraculous so I hope it’s the case.

Am I reading it wrong that these measures “remaining in place” means living in this surreal situation for two years (or until a viable vaccine comes into play)?

The measures go on and off over 2 years. They come off when new ICU cases drop to 25% of the trigger value (ie 15 or 25), and then go back on when there's 60/100 new ICU cases in a week.

The far right table is the % of time of those 2 years we would have restrictions - it's about 75%.

However, obviously an antiviral treatment or vaccine coming in under 2 years would make that drop off significantly.

 

[Academica]

Bit confused as to who is in the at risk group for the 12 week isolation, anybody any idea?

 

[B\connellblue]

Surprised FCA medics etc aren't being involved. Still happy to see the government being decisive about it. Would be nice to see a debt moratorium given the level of national debt and the rental crisis.

There was talk of it and hopefully it will come. The rent situation in the city will be critical as €203 wouldn't rent a kennel in Dublin.

 

[Tricky_Trev]

That would miraculous so I hope it’s the case.

Am I reading it wrong that these measures “remaining in place” means living in this surreal situation for two years (or until a viable vaccine comes into play)?

Yeah but being switched off and on depending on weekly ICU admissions. When they drop below a certain number, we get a momentary respite. Then when they increase again above a certain number, back into isolation and avoiding contact, with schools shutting again. The measures will need to be in place for roughly two-thirds of the time between now and a vaccine. So this is life for a very long time. Unless we want hundreds of thousands dead.

 

[sir baconface]

A big hole that the Government needs to close is testing.

frontline staff in the NHS need testing and they are focusing on priority-testing but they need to move the testing outside the NHS to private labs and use the emergency services, students and other people outside the NHS to get the resources they need. Testing is the way you find asymptomatic people who are spreading it, and you catch the transmission chain earlier. The WHO are highlighting this. No one outside of South Korea seems to be doing this work but it should be the key. I expect the NHS feels it doesn't have the resources to do it but society does. That's a government job to re-allocate.

Agree in principle but no idea what capacity we have in terms of test kits and resources to interpret them.

 

[Uffa]

Good graphical source for Italy's numbers
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJr...zM2MtNDYyNS04MTFiLWI1YTg3NjAyZjFhMSIsImMiOjl9

 

[domalino]

Given that circa 8,000 die from flu anyway on a good year, I think you can forget all about your lower estimate mate. The upper estimate would be a welcomed miracle.

1600 die from flu on average in the UK and there's going to be a big overlap.

That would make this 5x worse than flu.

 

[mexico1970]

Bit confused as to who is in the at risk group for the 12 week isolation, anybody any idea?

Over 70s
Mr Whitty said: "This is a quite large group, of people who are over 70 (and possibly quite healthy)".

He added: "We know that older people are at greater risk but that doesn't necessarily mean that they will get it worse."

People who have a significant health condition
Mr Whitty said: "These are mainly adults we want them to take even great care. This is critical."

He said the geoup included: "People in adult life who would normally be advised to have the flu jab with chronic conditions like chronic heart disease or chronic kidney disease."

Pregnant women
Mr Whitty described this as "a precautionary measure" because "we are early in out understanding of this virus and we want to be sure, [so will include] women who are pregnant".

 

[mayo31]

We are in 14 days isolation.

My wife has woken up with headache and a fever. No real cough yet.

Son has a cough and runny nose.

I ok. Only been 2 hours and I see it it going to be a long 14 days.

Daughter on her way home from work.

 

[Chippy_boy]

The measures go on and off over 2 years. They come off when new ICU cases drop to 25% of the trigger value (ie 15 or 25), and then go back on when there's 60/100 new ICU cases in a week.

The far right table is the % of time of those 2 years we would have restrictions - it's about 75%.

However, obviously an antiviral treatment or vaccine coming in under 2 years would make that drop off significantly.

Agreed mate.

The other bit I may have missed (didn't pour over every word because it's too depressing) is I didn't see any significant ramp up in ICU capacity over the period. Was that in there?