COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Chippy_boy said:
It does seem like Spain has peaked and is now declining - fingers crossed.

If that's the case, their peak came 18 days after lockdown. We locked down on March 23rd, so +18 day = 10th April for our peak. That said, I don't think we locked down hard enough (think ridiculous scenes on London underground) so I think our peak will take longer. I was predicting 15th, but have since pulled that back to the 13th. Here's my model again:



This equates to 23,000 deaths, unfortunately. I sincerely hope that is miles out... and it could be. if we really do peak on 10th April, we could be looking at something more like this:



With the result of only 18,000 deaths.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but Spain went straight to lockdown. We went to social distancing for a week and a half before lockdown. Indeed, I'm not sure that stringent lockdown is much better than the extreme social distancing being practiced in Sweden. Just a few idiots breaking the rules seems to totally invalidate the whole point of extreme lockdown.
Places that went to social distancing first (California, Oregon to name but two) are starting to see reduced case levels ahead of any expected effect from lockdown.
BTW the bionomial curves I am seeing on scientists screens seem to have a rapid attack phase and a much slower decay phase due to the idiots breaking the rules.
 
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so is anybody bothering watching the queens speech later, I was going to watch it but given the bbc are telling me what she is going to say word for word every hour I won’t bother now.
 
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