COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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That is not what I have suggested at all. I have said this previously several times:

We lock down as we are doing - ideally we would have done it sooner and harder, since then the peak would have been lower and the duration shorter. But we are where we are.

And then once the infection rate is right down and the death rate near or at zero, then we gradually ease off restrictions and start to get back to normal. However, we start mass scale testing and immediately isolate anyone infected, trace their contacts and isolate them as well. And if the numbers start to pick up, we start imposing restrictions again.

This is the only viable strategy. It is all well and good you talking about "fantasy" but you offer no alternative. 40m get this; tens, perhaps hundreds of thousands die, and the NHS is obliterated. That is your alternative.

Moreover, what I am suggesting is the course shown to be effective in other countries. And for that matter, it's the course we are taking.

Spot on! If the UK had done this from 8/9 days earlier when most of the world did it they'd be very close to the other side now and would be easing on restriction within the next 7 days. Instead it's just gonna go on longer.
 
Singapore to suspend one of its Terminals for 18 months. Gives you an idea of how long they think this will impact us.


At first look, that's extremely alarming. But if you read between the lines, they're basically taking advantage of the slowdown in flights to bring forward planned upgrade and expansion works, with the hope of getting it all done in 18 months rather than leaving it to drag over 4 years.
 
That is not what I have suggested at all. I have said this previously several times:

We lock down as we are doing - ideally we would have done it sooner and harder, since then the peak would have been lower and the duration shorter. But we are where we are.

And then once the infection rate is right down and the death rate near or at zero, then we gradually ease off restrictions and start to get back to normal. However, we start mass scale testing and immediately isolate anyone infected, trace their contacts and isolate them as well. And if the numbers start to pick up, we start imposing restrictions again.

This is the only viable strategy. It is all well and good you talking about "fantasy" but you offer no alternative. 40m get this; tens, perhaps hundreds of thousands die, and the NHS is obliterated. That is your alternative.

Moreover, what I am suggesting is the course shown to be effective in other countries. And for that matter, it's the course we are taking. Singapore are just starting to put restrictions in place again, now that their death toll has reach a dizzy 6 (total, not per day). vs our circa 5,000. They kept it at 6 with vigorous mass testing, isolation and contract tracing. And everyone wears a mask! When our lock down ends, this is PRECISELY what we must do.

You seem to have forgotten where we actually disagree. I have always said we will lock down, then ease and isolate, then re lockdown based on triggers, I've been saying that for weeks like everyone else who read the ICL report. Where we disagreed was where you started talking about a complete lockdown, much more severe than the current one and the efficacy of that vs. the current lockdown.


Death rate will never get to zero under a lock down, it won't get "near" zero. we have millions of essential workers which alone will stop the death rate ever getting "near zero".

Also - you have completely invented "my position" to be one of complete unmitigated spread of the virus which is complete and utter bollocks and you know it is, because I've commented and discussed this pandemic with you enough over the last month. So don't do that, don't argue in bad faith and create bullshit strawmen, it doesn't do anything.
 
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Where we disagreed was where you started talking about a complete lockdown, much more severe than the current one and the efficacy of that vs. the current lockdown.

No I didn't. Let me remind you of the post I made, which you decided to try to criticise:

"I hear what you are saying but there is a fundamental flaw in the various assumptions above "most people will get this at some point".

That absolutely must not be allowed to happen and it can be prevented. It must be prevented. If it is only as deadly as flu and say 40m or 50m people get it then that means 50,000 people dead. Which would mean multiples of that needing ICU treatment and we have nowhere near the capacity to cater for those numbers in any sorts of near timescale, so even more dead.

The objective is to prevent as many people as possible from getting this, not forever, but until a vaccine arrives. And then vaccinate everyone.
"

And your reply:

"There is absolutely zero chance of this happening. Your plan to lockdown even more severely than we already are for 18 months is a complete fantasy."

You're replying to a post I did not make. Seems to me you just like arguing.
 
Sweden is one country where, if you're prepared to lose lives (I wouldn't), this way of doing things could work. Their population is less than 11 million in a huge country. Stockholm is less than 1 million. There'll be more people in London every day than in their entire country.
In the grand scheme, it’s probably quite helpful having a country do what Sweden are doing, as helps us see their success level.
 
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