COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[domalino]

Any idea of the real death rate for the UK? As far as I can gather only deaths in hospitals are being counted. If that is true then it's a case of massaging the figures so it doesn't look quite so bad.

THe death rate is everyone who has died, not just everyone at hospitals, but the people who die out of hospitals are being collected and added every tuesday. So today is the least accurate the numbers will get, tomorrow it will be completely accurate.

 

[inchy14]

For the sake of clarity I am joking Inchy. #don't cuddle a tiger.

Girlfriend has 2 cats and I’m shitting it now when they come near!!

 

[blueparrot]

THe death rate is everyone who has died, not just everyone at hospitals, but the people who die out of hospitals are being collected and added every tuesday. So today is the least accurate the numbers will get, tomorrow it will be completely accurate.

It will give us the numbers for deaths but not the rate though.

 

[oakiecokie]

Am I being Clarkied here????

In a word ... yes.If not then I truly despair at that poster inchy.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Thanks, they seem to conclude that to avoid ICU capacity being overwhelmed a repeated cycle of intense lockdown followed by more relaxed restrictions would be needed well into 2021. I'm not sure how that would play in the behaviourial context - would people get fed up quite quickly with the continual switch between levels of restriction?

A vaccine being available, which is what I’d expect to happen, will obviously change all these projections.

 

[Manc in London]

Don't know where you got that stat from? Not saying you are wrong, but I have not seen it. This report might seem to suggest a different picture:

https://www.theguardian.com/society...y-and-still-the-coronavirus-tide-keeps-coming

It was from SKY News on Saturday.

The figs for cases in the various London boroughs vary wildly. For example, Haringey and Barnet are adjacent to each other but Barnet figs are much higher. Of course, there may be other reasons for the differences. But there are 4 or 5 London boroughs that have had many more positive than others (not a great proxy for ICU cases, granted) . Maybe some trusts are close to breaking point, others are way off.

 

[fulabeer]

And then once the infection rate is right down and the death rate near or at zero, then we gradually ease off restrictions and start to get back to normal

How long do you think that will take the UK to get there?

 

[Rammy Blue]

The UK did it. The USA did it. Germany did it. It was only when the deaths and cases started to add up that they enacted restrictions. I see Sweden has had a bit of a jump in deaths today so it will be interesting to see if over the next few days their govt stick to their current plans when the pressure hits and the public start losing loved ones. I know there are Swedes here in Spain that are very concerned about friends and family back there.

My post was related to the assumption they will continue on their current plans, which they seem confident they are going to do.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

A vaccine being available, which is what I’d expect to happen, will obviously change all these projections.

But isn't the vaccine supposed to be 18 months away? So potentially well into 2021 in any case.

 

[lancs blue]

A vaccine being available, which is what I’d expect to happen, will obviously change all these projections.

Best estimates for a vaccine coming into mass production is 12-18 months - and 12 months is optimistic - so the method suggested in that paper would still happen well into 2021.