The virus can't survive long in sunlight so outdoor events are very safe unless someone coughs directly on you. The real test will be when more is happening indoors in tight spaces where Covid can remain on a surface for days. I think we will have to wait and see for a bit longer.Would have agreed with you a few weeks back but having seen ve day, BLM and the beaches lately I am not so sure as there dosnt thankfully appear to have been a spike after that lot
Not sure that's true as it seems to be ripping through countries with far better climates than ours Brazil India and the Middle East spring to mind.The virus can't survive long in sunlight so outdoor events are very safe unless someone coughs directly on you. The real test will be when more is happening indoors in tight spaces where Covid can remain on a surface for days. I think we will have to wait and see for a bit longer.
I don't agree with you about the football. What Liverpool fans do for 1 week in one city is not going to be significant.The mass crowds will test the second spike theory. There might well be higher levels of immunity in cities than previously thought and we might get away with it but for anyone that has followed advice and government, scientific advice over the past 13 weeks, the scenes we are witnessing must be sickening. I know some friends with loved ones waiting hospital treatment that are seriously losing their shit over the state of civil disobedience.
The scenes from Liverpool was entirely predictable, despite denials from the club and the Premier League. If you were to believe the advice being given about this pandemic and the measures required to eradicate it, football should have been cancelled. Null and void or work out titles and promotions on a ppg basis, across all leagues. What we have seen as a result of Liverpool winning the title ,( and they were always going to win it ) was and continues to be an absolute disgrace and quite simply a piss take out of key workers and the other half of Merseyside. Entirely predictable . Every news and media report fawning over this title win just makes it worse. I know there are genuine Liverpool fans out there that are getting upset about what they are seeing, i've unfollowed at least 10 friends on FB due to the pisstaking ! My concerns have been shown to be valid.
What the last few weeks have shown, i guess more a political comment, is that the police are completely powerless or unwilling to control large crowds , parties, beach gatherings, football, protests, raves - do what you want, the trend has been set for the summer
If you have a quarter of a million people infected after months and months of slow growth, and a R value just above 1, you will get a rapid number of new cases. I suspect that if you were to measure the R0 rate for the virus in the UK in Winter and the R0 rate in Mecca in the Summer you would find a significant difference. Demographics and climate are huge factors imo but if you have a mass of people partying, shouting and in each other's faces any respiratory infection will spread.Not sure that's true as it seems to be ripping through countries with far better climates than ours Brazil India and the Middle East spring to mind.
We don't know how significant the Liverpool victory parties are going to be, no one does it seems. According to various sources the COVID cases may take 4-6 weeks to work through the system and appear as a hospital case or death and there will be a lot of other factors in the mix to increase or lessen those numbers as protocol rules have changed and continue to change. However, if you want to follow and believe the advice we are given and told to follow , my point with regards to the football side of things, is that it was entirely predictable, that crowds would gather outside the ground, and at Pier Head and i suspect alot of parties have been held indoors by Liverpool fans wanting to celebrate a sure fire thing. They may be young people partying but no one has said they are immune from passing it on to others and keep the virus alive amongst us. I agree if nothing happens as a result of these mass gatherings then we have dodged a bullet and questions will need to be asked of our approach to this pandemic. No one knows that at the moment but we all knew Liverpool would happen, and that is the scandal. From what i see the lockdown is over, come July 4th it will be over. Herd immunity is being tested under the cover of darkness.I don't agree with you about the football. What Liverpool fans do for 1 week in one city is not going to be significant.
You are conflating "Feck it, let's paty" attitude amongst the youngm which I agree is becoming evident with football.
The US data this morning on worldometer is shocking. The US has a new problem, and they held their first Taskforce meeting for ages in response. Their epidemic is surging out of control in the US states but it's a different phenomena so far. It's young people partying and so far it's accompanied by falling death rates. They have lost this age group. 'Feck it, let's party.' You'd have thought that it will be impossible to contain the illness in one age-group. Will this boredom factor spread across the world? And what will be the impact?
If in a fortnight US hospitals start to fill with older people and if there's death then this will be a natural brake on this activity, but if you can get infected and nothing happens, then people will copy it. The UK opens for partying next weekend so it's worth keeping an eye on what happens in those US Southern states.
I agree generally about your point about partying and revelry, but disagree that football fans are contributing much to this.We don't know how significant the Liverpool victory parties are going to be, no one does it seems. According to various sources the COVID cases may take 4-6 weeks to work through the system and appear as a hospital case or death and there will be a lot of other factors in the mix to increase or lessen those numbers as protocol rules have changed and continue to change. However, if you want to follow and believe the advice we are given and told to follow , my point with regards to the football side of things, is that it was entirely predictable, that crowds would gather outside the ground, and at Pier Head and i suspect alot of parties have been held indoors by Liverpool fans wanting to celebrate a sure fire thing. They may be young people partying but no one has said they are immune from passing it on to others and keep the virus alive amongst us. I agree if nothing happens as a result of these mass gatherings then we have dodged a bullet and questions will need to be asked of our approach to this pandemic. No one knows that at the moment but we all knew Liverpool would happen, and that is the scandal. From what i see the lockdown is over, come July 4th it will be over. Herd immunity is being tested under the cover of darkness.
I don't think football make up a sizeable portion of gatherings as we have had numerous uk wide protests and the public have been allowed to flock to beaches and beauty spots. Largely i would blame the people themselves but it hasn't been policed at all. If i knew people were going to flock to the beaches , i would poice them in advance, same as beauty spots etc. In terms of football we didn't need crystal ball to know that they would gather in numbers at Anfield and Liverpool city centre and therefore breach the guidelines, despite protests from the club, Big shout out to the Liverpool Mayor for calling it right . Perhaps the virus is morphing into another strain that makes it a problem for the kids? As it stands for some of the younger element are basically saying 'I'm alright JackI agree generally about your point about partying and revelry, but disagree that football fans are contributing much to this.
I read this morning that in Florida the 15-to-34 age group now make up 31% of all new cases, and the median age for new patients in Florida has fallen from 55 years in March to under 35 in June. I wasn't sure when I read that as to whether they meant hospital patients or just new cases but there does seem to be a change in attitudes taking place. It maybe a good thing. it maybe that people sense correctly that the threat from the illness is receding, or it maybe a new problem. We will see.