Liverpool (H) | Pre-Match Thread

[CatMan]

If chasing 100 points in 17/18 was relevant then surely beating these tonight and doing what we can to defend that record is relevant?

Not really because ultimately we are not in control of that outcome and it depends on other results. If this was the last game to stop them, then yes I agree, but it isn't, the players know the league is a treading water exercise and frankly I hope the Liverpool players feel the same.

 

[prestonibbo_mcfc]

All squids are damp.

Moist beyond belief....the squids, that is.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Robertson has one yellow maybe two,that tells a story

He has only one yellow card in the league and only 0.6 fouls per match, after playing 2,259 minutes.

For direct references, Walker has 4 yellows and 1 foul per match, after playing 1,990 minutes; Dinho has 6 yellows, two reds, and 0.9 fouls per match, after playing 2,156 minutes.

Robertson’s yellow tally should have been doubled (or tripled depending on how you count yellow to red conversion) in our match against them alone. I can think of a few other matches where he miraculously walked away without a yellow being issued (and many fairly obvious fouls not being called). And that’s not even considering Alexander-Arnold (also should have gotten *at least* a yellow against us), Fabinho, Van Dijk, et al.

That tells you everything you need to know about how they have been refereed differently to us.

Will you marry me ?

I think the missus would be most displeased, but I appreciate the proposal. ;-)

Good work

Cheers — took a bloody long time to compile and write up but I thought it was worth pointing out, if for no other reason than to dispel the false narrative with which the global sport media have been attempting to bludgeon everyone.

By "At the moment" I meant over the season and they are 23 point ahead of us. We are probably the more attractive team to watch but they have developed a system that is highly effective, proven by only having dropped 7 points I think so far. Their style is one we struggle with, a strong defence and fast on the break. Wolves and the rags play a similar style and it is no coincidence we have also lost home and away to both.

Not sure that is an accurate translation of “at the moment” but, even so, I think you are seriously underestimating the contribution of VAR, very favourable refereeing, and opposition “gifts” / truly miraculous inability to finish great chances (often on practically open nets) in the points difference you reference.

A simple stat that is at least *partially* impacted by those influences to help support my assertion:

We have won 5 games and lost 4 games by 1 goal (League).

Liverpool have won 13 and lost 0.

Now think of what happened in our games compared to what happened in theirs.

I am not implying that we should be above them right now, by any means — we would absolutely still be behind them in the table without VAR intervention (or lack thereof), favourable refereeing, and opposition “incompetence”, as we just haven’t been as consistently good this year as the past two seasons for a few reasons.

But I think it would not be unreasonable to say we could be going in to today’s match 9 points behind, with 18 points still left to play for.

And we have been in worse positions before and won the league. And Liverpool have been in better positions and lost it... twice.

My original point stands that there isn’t much evidence they are better than us “at the moment” and my new point is that they haven’t actually been *substantially* better than us over the course of the season. They have been better, but in the same way they have been “better” for periods in previous seasons. This time they just had a lot of other things go in their favour — *arguably* more than any recent winners, including us (even considering the historic season pause for the pandemic).

They won it, nothing will change that now, and it is medicine that has to be taken for next season. But there’s no reason we have to also gargle and swallow the snake oil being sold by their PR team and the media about them being the greatest ever PL side.

 

[Mid Wales blue]

I don’t really know from where you are getting that they are better than us “at the moment”?

Here is a comparison of our last 10 matches (all comps) by match goal difference (“|” represents the league pause):

Liverpool: +1 +1 -1 +1 -3 -2 +1 -1 | 0 +4 = +1 GD (+4 since restart)
Man City: +2 +1 +1 +1 +1 -2 | +3 +5 -1 +2 = +13 GD (+9 since restart)

And that’s not even looking at chances created, goals scored, and clean sheets in that period, all of which we also best them in. And we’ve only conceded 2 more goals than Liverpool since the restart (having played two more games), which would not be true if any Everton player could manage to kick a ball remotely toward an open net. Of course, we have played two more games than them, but that actually makes the argument for our being in better form even stronger since it’s easier to gauge that from 4 games v 2 games and reflects that we have also been able to continue in more competitions than them (their season is effectively over, whilst we can still win two more trophies if everything goes well).

At worst, we are in better form based on points won v points available since the restart (75% v 66%) after playing teams with an average league position of 8th and combined season GD of 0 (only one of them outside the top 10), whilst Liverpool have played teams with an average league position of 12th and combined GD of -16 (neither in the top 10). If we average our respective GD since the restart, we also slightly edge it (+2.25 v +2).

TL;DR:
Based on performances and stats, we have been measurably *better* over the last ten matches and at least *slightly* better since the restart.

Now, that is not to say that we will definitely win today — anything could happen in this fixture. But there’s not much supporting evidence for them being better than us “at the moment” — in fact, all evidence points to the opposite.

Thanks for putting the effort in to this post, I enjoyed the information presented and it’s made my Strongbow taste that little bit sharper :-)

 

[WickyWain]

Really hope Foden starts. Want to see what he can do against a top side.

To be fair, he started against the rags








So yeah it would be nice to see what he can do against a top team.

 

[Nellies left peg]

Thanks for putting the effort in to this post, I enjoyed the information presented and it’s made my Strongbow taste that little bit sharper :-)

Fucking hell Sebastian I knew you were good but not that good:-)

 

[Silvercloud]

I think we'll be, by far the the better team tonight but I think missing chances tonight will cost us big time. They'll hit us on the break a couple of times, obviously against the run of play I might had, and snatch a couple of goals

Story of our season really.

 

[Mid Wales blue]

Fucking hell Sebastian I knew you were good but not that good:-)

good?

He’s just posted another essay of excellence to go with the other one.

At this rate my Strongbow will taste like champagne by the time the game starts!

 

[meltonblue]

Not got a good feeling about this one, it's come at the wrong time for us and a great time for them. Nothing left to play for at all of them and they can go at full intensity having had a week off, we've still got more important games to go and there's a few players we really cannot afford to lose for them.

Really hope I'm wrong though, few big decisions for Pep to make in the line up too. I'd be really happy to see Foden starting this one.

 

[OntarioBlue]

Sky sports

Thank you